StarHill Global - 16 Jul 25

Asset: Starhill Global REIT (SGX: P40U)
Timeframe: Daily (1D)
Analysis Period: ~9 months (Oct 2024 – July 16, 2025)
Total Bars: Approx. 180 bars

---

🔍 Current Market Regime: Transition to Emerging Uptrend

Price recently broke above multi-month range resistance with expanding volume, indicating a potential regime shift from accumulation to early mark-up phase.

---

🔎 Highest Conviction Observations

1. Market Structure Shift (CHoCH Confirmed):

   • Swing Low (SL): 0.455 (April 2025, extreme volume on flush candle - likely shakeout).

   • Swing Highs (SH): 0.505 → 0.510 → 0.515 → now surpassed with 0.525 close.

   • Break of Structure (BOS): Occurred at 0.515 level; price cleared this zone with volume expansion, shifting from ranging to trending structure.

2. Volume-Price Confirmation:

   • Climactic Volume Bar (April 2025 @ 0.455): High-volume down bar followed by immediate reversal (classic institutional shakeout).

   • Recent Volume Behavior: Rising volume as price breaks 0.515, confirming bullish interest and likely institutional accumulation below 0.50–0.51.

3. Accumulation Zone Defined (Institutional Footprint):

   • Order Block Region: 0.480–0.495 acted as strong accumulation zone; multiple rejections and base building here before breakout.

   • Fair Value Gap (FVG): Minor imbalance between 0.510–0.515 now filled and exceeded; clean price acceptance above.

4. Psychological and Structural Confluence:

   • Resistance Turned Support: 0.515 now functions as reclaimed support.

   • Round Number Significance: 0.50 acted as psychological anchor; breakout sustained above it.

5. Measured Move Potential:

   • Accumulation range (0.455–0.515 = $0.06) implies initial projection to ~0.575 if mark-up holds.

   • Resistance cluster near 0.545–0.555 expected as first major supply zone.

---

📊 Bar-by-Bar Microstructure (Recent Price Action)

• July 15–16 Bars:

  • Wide-range bullish candle (July 16) closing at high (0.525) with highest volume in weeks → denotes institutional strength.

  • Prior bars showed narrowing ranges with increasing body size → coiled energy release.

• Absorption Identified:

  • Repeated bars near 0.510–0.515 with low spread and rising volume — suggestive of absorption before breakout.

• No Major Bearish Reversal Bars:

  • No pin bars, shooting stars, or bearish engulfing patterns post breakout — confirms lack of overhead supply.

---

🔁 Multi-Timeframe Confluence Check (Assumed Weekly Bias)

• Weekly trend remains sideways but now showing bullish engulfing breakout beyond 7-month range.

• Confirmation on weekly close above 0.530 enhances conviction.

---

🔐 Risk Management Parameters

• Entry Zone: 0.520–0.525 (breakout continuation zone)

• Stop Loss: Below 0.510 (invalidates breakout structure)

• Target 1: 0.545 (prior minor resistance)

• Target 2: 0.575 (measured move from accumulation range)

• Risk-to-Reward: ~1:3.5 assuming 0.015 risk and 0.05 reward

---

📈 Forward-Looking Bias

• Bias remains bullish above 0.510.

• Watch for consolidation above 0.515 for base-building continuation.

• Sustained volume expansion needed above 0.530 to validate further upside.

---

✅ Trade Summary Format

Buying P40U because of a confirmed breakout above multi-month resistance with institutional volume signature, with stops at 0.510 targeting 0.575 for a 1:3.5 risk-reward ratio.

• Confidence Rating: 8/10

• Key Levels to Watch: Support – 0.515, 0.510 | Resistance – 0.545, 0.575

• Checklist Before Execution:

  • Confirm strong daily close above 0.530

  • Ensure volume maintains above 20-day average

  • Review broader REIT sector sentiment and macro correlation

Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

Dividend:  6.86%