CapLand Ascendas - 21 Jul 25

Asset: CapitaLand Ascendas REIT (SGX: A17U)
Timeframe: Daily (1D)
Date Range Analyzed: Sep 2024 – Jul 18, 2025
Total Bars: ~225 (approx. 10 months of trading days)

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📊 Current Market Regime: Transitioning to Trending (Bullish Bias)

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🔍 High Conviction Observations:

1. Market Structure & Order Flow

• Confirmed Break of Structure (BOS):
  Break above previous swing high at 2.75 (Apr 2025) → recent daily close at 2.80 signals bullish intent.

• Swing Structure:
  Higher lows forming: 2.40 (May) → 2.55 (Jun) → 2.66 (early Jul)
  Current high of 2.80 surpasses recent resistance levels: 2.75 & 2.72 → bullish sequence in progress.

• Change of Character (CHoCH):
  CHoCH confirmed early Jun post-higher low at 2.55, negating bearish sequence from May’s downtrend.

2. Volume-Price Relationship (VPR)

• Volume Expansion + Range Expansion:
  Bullish rally from late June onward showing consistent rising volume with widening candle ranges – indicative of institutional entry.

• Absorption Evidence:
  Early July shows high volume with modest gains near 2.66 → interpreted as supply absorption pre-breakout.

• Breakout Volume Validation:
  Volume spikes during recent move to 2.80 reinforce breakout legitimacy – not a false breakout.

3. Institutional Footprint & Smart Money

• Order Block Zone:
  Demand zone from 2.49–2.55 (May/Jun lows) aligns with institutional buying footprints (long wicks + high vol bars).

• Displacement Move:
  June–July price surge shows strong directional intent with minor retracement, typical of institutional displacement.

• Fair Value Gap (FVG):
  Notably clean break between 2.66–2.72 suggests potential FVG support on future retrace.

4. Bar Pattern Recognition

• Continuation Pattern Observed:
  Micro bull flags formed in early July led to continuation up through 2.66 → structurally constructive.

• Wide Bullish Bars (e.g., Jul 15–17):
  Indicate institutional dominance, each bar closing near high → strong conviction.

• No Reversal Patterns Detected as of Jul 18 close – upward momentum remains intact.

5. Multi-Timeframe Confluence

• Daily Breakout Aligns with Weekly Consolidation Range:
  Weekly timeframe shows range breakout above 2.75 → validates daily breakout strength.

• Compression Unwinding:
  Multiple failed tops (2.66–2.75) from Mar–May broken convincingly → multi-timeframe resistance cleared.

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🎯 Key Price Levels:

Level Type	Price (SGD)	Significance
Resistance (Prev High)	2.75	Broken (confirmation pending)
Support (Demand Zone)	2.55	Institutional demand zone
Breakout Validation	2.66	BOS level, should now act as support
Next Target Zone	2.89–2.92	Gap resistance + minor weekly supply

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📈 Forward-Looking Bias:

• Bullish Continuation Likely if 2.75 holds as new support.

• Anticipate pullback retests toward 2.72–2.66 before next impulse.

• Volume needs to remain elevated for sustained upside. Watch for climactic exhaustion near 2.90.

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🛡 Risk Management Parameters:

• Initial Stop: Below 2.66 (prior resistance turned support)

• Entry Confirmation Zone: 2.75–2.80 breakout range

• First Target: 2.90

• R:R Estimate: ~1:2.5 assuming entry near 2.77, stop at 2.65, target at 2.90+

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📌 Summary Trade Sentence:

Buying CapitaLand Ascendas REIT (A17U.SI) because of a confirmed breakout above 2.75 with institutional volume support, with stops at 2.65 targeting 2.90 for a 1:2.5 risk-reward ratio.

Confidence Rating: 8.5/10
Key Levels to Watch: 2.66 (support), 2.75 (breakout hold), 2.90 (next resistance)

✅ Checklist Before Execution:

• Validate continued high volume

• Monitor for intraday rejection at 2.80+

• Watch for weak pullback to 2.66–2.72 zone

• Confirm weekly close above 2.75

Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

Dividend:  5.36%