CDW - 08 Jul 25

CDW (SGX: BXE) – Daily Chart Analysis (Approx. 15 Months, ~300 Bars)
Date of Last Candle: 8 July 2025
Market Regime: Ranging with emerging bullish interest

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🔍 1. Market Structure & Order Flow Analysis

• Trend Structure:

  • Long-term downtrend from high of 0.178 (Jul ‘23) → lower highs at 0.160 (Dec ‘23), 0.147 (Oct ‘23), and 0.139 (Mar ‘25).

  • Swing lows progressing lower: 0.146 → 0.135 → 0.130 → 0.119 → 0.110 → 0.112

  • Recent higher low at 0.112 in May with current push to 0.123 may hint at early Change of Character (CHoCH).

• Structure Break:

  • Minor BOS above previous short-term swing high of 0.120+ confirms micro bullish shift.

• Trend Momentum Decay:

  • Prolonged compression with overlapping bars and narrow ranges from March to June suggests energy buildup.

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🧩 2. Volume-Price Relationship (VPR)

• Recent Volume Expansion (Late June - Early July):

  • Price moved up on rising volume but failed to break out meaningfully, indicating institutional testing of upper supply zone (~0.130).

• High Volume + Small Range (May-June):

  • Indication of absorption at lows (0.112–0.120) suggesting potential accumulation.

• Volume Dry-Up:

  • Prior to recent lift, dry-up near 0.120 zone signifies possible breakout preparation.

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🧠 3. Institutional Footprints

• Liquidity Grab Attempt:

  • Price dipped below 0.112 (May) and sharply reversed → potential spring or stop run, classic of Wyckoff Phase C.

• Displacement & Order Block:

  • Last strong down candle around 0.130-0.135 range before up-move → bearish order block zone, acting as resistance now.

• Fair Value Gap (FVG):

  • Inefficiency around 0.125–0.130 may need to be filled before breakout continuation.

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📊 4. Bar Pattern Recognition

• Current Bar (8 July):

  • Full-bodied down bar (-5.38%) on above-average volume → suggests either rejection of resistance or bull trap.

• Past Rejection at 0.130 Level (May & March):

  • Repetitive failure = potential triple top formation if price doesn't reclaim 0.130 with volume.

• Lack of Engulfing/Reversal Patterns:

  • No clean bullish reversal bar has emerged since June consolidation.

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⏳ 5. Multi-Timeframe Confluence

• Weekly Chart Confluence (not shown):

  • Likely shows prolonged base forming around 0.110–0.120 zone → structural accumulation zone.

• Daily Compression:

  • Sideways compression between 0.112–0.130 over 3 months = volatility contraction, typically precedes expansion.

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💰 6. Psychological & Technical Levels

• Key Resistance:

  • 0.130 = psychological round number and previous supply shelf (Apr–Jul).

• Key Support:

  • 0.112 = structural low post-spring.

• ATR Context:

  • Current bar range (~0.007) within normal ATR range; no climactic deviation yet.

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📈 7. Risk-Adjusted Setup Evaluation

• High-Probability Zone:

  • 0.112–0.120 = demand zone with accumulation and institutional interest

• Entry Zone:

  • Bullish structure needs reclaim above 0.130 with strong volume for confirmation.

• Stop Loss Placement:

  • Below 0.112 swing low = invalidation of accumulation thesis.

• Profit Targets:

  • Initial: 0.139 (March high)

  • Secondary: 0.160 (Dec high)

  • Tertiary: 0.178 (July ‘23 high)

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🧭 8. Forward Bias & Key Levels

• Bias:

  • Bullish accumulation thesis remains valid if 0.112 holds and price reclaims 0.130.

  • Failure to defend 0.120 would reintroduce downside risk toward 0.110/0.100.

• Key Levels to Watch:

  • Support: 0.112 / 0.119

  • Resistance: 0.130 (immediate), 0.139, 0.160

  • Breakout Confirmation: Daily close > 0.130 on expanded volume

  • Invalidation: Close < 0.110

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📌 Trade Summary Sentence

Selling CDW (BXE) because price rejected the key 0.130 resistance zone with a full-bodied bearish bar and volume spike, with stops above 0.131 targeting 0.112 for a 1:2.4 risk-reward ratio.
Confidence Rating: 6/10 (due to range-bound regime and unresolved breakout)

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✅ Pre-Execution Checklist

• Wait for volume confirmation on any breakout/breakdown

• Ensure close above 0.130 (bull) or below 0.110 (bear) for clean signal

• Align trade with broader sector/market sentiment

• Confirm multi-timeframe alignment before sizing position

Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

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