F&N - 07 Jul 25

• Stock Name: Fraser & Neave (F&N)

• Ticker Symbol: SGX: F99

• Chart Timeframe: Daily (1D)

• Date Range: ~October 2024 to July 7, 2025

• Bars in Analysis Period: Approx. 190 trading days

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1. Market Regime Classification

• Current Regime: Transitioning from ranging to uptrending

• Evidence:

  • Consolidation between 1.25–1.27 (May–June) followed by bullish breakout

  • Recent wide-range bullish bars with increased volume suggest shift in control

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2. Highest Conviction Observations

A. Change of Character (CHoCH) and Break of Structure (BOS)

• CHoCH occurred after break above 1.27 high on increased volume (June)

• BOS confirmed with break above 1.31 and 1.33 levels (previous structure resistance)

B. Institutional Volume Footprint

• Climactic Volume on April drop to 1.06 (shakeout behavior)

• Accumulation phase confirmed by:

  • Increasing volume clusters around 1.20–1.25

  • Low-range candles with high volume = absorption behavior

C. Displacement Move & Fair Value Gap (FVG)

• Displacement initiated late June with strong bullish impulse

• Small retracement leaves a minor FVG around 1.25–1.27, may act as future support

D. Volume-Price Relationship

• Volume expansion on breakout above 1.27 with consecutive wide-bodied bullish candles (institutional momentum)

• Price moved from 1.25 → 1.33 with little retracement = professional directional control

E. Supply Zone Test & Reaction

• Current price at 1.33, retesting supply from Oct–Dec 2024 consolidation

• Volume remains elevated = test of overhead supply, possible pause or minor pullback before continuation

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3. Bar-by-Bar Analysis Snapshot (June to July 7, 2025)

• Late June: Multiple inside bars at 1.25 → low volatility coil, indicating energy build-up

• June 27–July 3: Strong bullish expansion bars with rising volume → breakout confirmation

• July 4–5: Minor upper wicks into 1.33 resistance with elevated volume = potential testing phase

• July 7: Small body candle at 1.33 → potential pause for liquidity gathering or flag formation

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4. Risk-Adjusted Setup Identification

• High Probability Buy Zone: 1.27–1.29 (prior breakout, FVG, and structure support)

• Stop Placement: Below 1.25 structure low

• Target 1: 1.37 (previous swing high from Jan 2025)

• Target 2: 1.39 (range top from Oct 2024)

• Risk-Reward Estimate: Approx. 1:2.5

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5. Key Technical Levels

• Immediate Support: 1.27–1.29 (prior BOS/FVG)

• Current Resistance: 1.33 (present consolidation zone)

• Breakout Target Levels: 1.37 → 1.39

• Critical Structural Stop: 1.25

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6. Forward Bias and Confluence Outlook

• Bias: Bullish continuation favored unless price closes back below 1.27

• Multi-Timeframe Confluence: Likely higher timeframe breakout of multi-month range (Oct–Jun)

• Volume & Price Confirmation: Validated by sustained bullish volume on breakout

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Trade Summary

Buying F&N (SGX: F99) because of a confirmed breakout from a multi-month accumulation base and institutional volume expansion, with stops at 1.25 targeting 1.39 for a 1:2.5 risk-reward ratio.
Confidence Rating: 8/10

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✅ Pre-Trade Execution Checklist:

• ☐ Is market regime confirmed (transition to trending)?

• ☐ Is entry near prior breakout retest or pullback zone?

• ☐ Is volume confirming directional intent?

• ☐ Is stop beyond valid structural level (not arbitrary)?

• ☐ Is reward-to-risk ratio favorable (>1:2)?

Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

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