Geo Energy - 16 Dec 2025

Geo Energy Resources Ltd (SGX: RE4)

Timeframe: Daily (1D)
Approx. Date Range: Apr 2025 – Dec 2025
Last Traded Price: ~SGD 0.425

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1. Market Regime Classification (Lead Conclusion)

Current Regime: Transition → Weak Downtrend / Distribution aftermath

• The stock has completed an impulsive markup phase, entered distribution, and is now in a post-distribution drift lower

• Volatility has compressed, volume has dried up, and price is losing momentum

• This is not an accumulation structure yet — it is a cooling / digestion phase

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2. Higher-Level Market Structure (Macro → Micro)

Primary Swing Structure

• Swing Low (SL): ~0.320 (July)

• Swing High (SH): ~0.520 (early Oct)

• Structure sequence:

  • Higher Low → Higher High into Oct = confirmed uptrend

  • Lower Highs after 0.520 = trend exhaustion

  • Failure to reclaim 0.48–0.50 = structural weakness

Key Structural Events

• Break of Structure (BOS – bullish):

  • Early Sep surge from ~0.35 → ~0.45 on wide-range + expanding volume

• Change of Character (CHoCH – bearish):

  • Post-0.520 rejection with heavy volume but poor follow-through

  • First clear signal institutions stopped pushing price higher

👉 Bias shifted from trend continuation → distribution

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3. Institutional vs Retail Behavior

Markup Phase (Aug → Sep)

• Strong displacement move from ~0.33 → ~0.45

• Wide bodies, minimal overlap, volume expansion

• Clear institutional sponsorship

Distribution Phase (Oct)

• 0.50–0.52 zone

• Repeated:

  • High volume

  • Upper wicks

  • Failure to extend

• Effort (volume) without result (price) → textbook distribution

Post-Distribution Drift (Nov → Dec)

• Lower highs, shallow bounces

• Volume contracts → institutions no longer active

• Retail participation dominates

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4. Advanced Volume-Price Relationship (VPR)

Critical Observations

• High Volume + Small Range at 0.50+
  → Institutional selling into strength

• Declining volume on down-move
  → Not panic selling, but controlled exit

• Volume Dry-Up near 0.42–0.43
  → Market indecision, not accumulation yet

⚠️ No clear absorption cluster at current lows.

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5. Bar Pattern & Micro-Structure Analysis

At the Top (0.50–0.52)

• Multiple shooting-star / long-wick bars

• Followed by bearish continuation closes

• No bullish engulfing or reclaim bars → rejection confirmed

Recent Bars (~0.42–0.43)

• Small real bodies

• Overlapping ranges

• Lack of initiative buying
  → Balance / pause, not reversal

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6. Key Institutional Supply & Demand Zones

Supply Zones (Overhead)

• 0.48–0.50 → Major institutional supply (distribution high)

• 0.455–0.465 → Prior support turned resistance

Demand Zones (Below)

• 0.42–0.415 → Minor short-term reaction zone (currently testing)

• 0.395–0.400 → Stronger historical demand

• 0.350–0.360 → Major institutional accumulation base

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7. Fair Value Gaps & Inefficiencies

• Large inefficient displacement from ~0.35 → ~0.45

• Current price has only partially rebalanced

• Probability favors deeper retrace toward 0.40 or lower before new trend forms

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8. Multi-Timeframe Confluence (HTF Bias)

• Daily structure: Lower highs

• Weekly context (implied):

  • Likely still corrective after strong impulse

• No HTF signal yet suggesting renewed accumulation

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9. Psychological & Reference Levels

Level	Significance
0.50	Round number + distribution high
0.45	Failed support / breakdown
0.42	Current decision level
0.40	Psychological + structural
0.35	Major cycle low / value zone

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10. High-Conviction Observations (Top 5)

1. 0.52 was a confirmed distribution high

2. No institutional demand visible yet

3. Current price action = balance, not accumulation

4. Any rally below 0.455 likely a sell-the-rally

5. Best risk-reward likely lower, not here

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11. Risk-Adjusted Setup Mapping (Technical Only)

Bullish Case (LOW probability currently)

• Conditions required:

  • Strong bullish displacement from 0.40–0.42

  • Volume expansion

  • Reclaim 0.455

• Until then → no long bias

Bearish / Drift Case (Higher probability)

• Failure at 0.43–0.44

• Slow grind toward 0.40

• Possible test of 0.395

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12. Forward-Looking Bias & Levels to Watch

Bias: Neutral-to-bearish
Market State: Post-distribution digestion

Key Levels

• Above 0.455: Bias improves

• Below 0.415: Downside continuation risk

• 0.395–0.400: First serious accumulation candidate

• 0.35: High-confidence long-term demand zone

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Bottom Line (Institutional Perspective)

This is not a buy-the-dip chart.
It is a wait-for-value or wait-for-proof chart.

Either:

• Deeper retrace into demand, or

• Clear accumulation signal with volume

Until one appears, capital preservation > participation.

Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

Dividend:  2.35%