CAPLAND ASCOTT TRUST (SGX: HMN) – Daily Chart (Oct 2024–Jul 14, 2025)
Bars Analyzed: Approx. 190 bars (9.5 months)
Current Market Regime:
Ranging Structure with emerging signs of potential breakout attempt; price oscillating between 0.770 support and 0.910 resistance over multiple months.
Top Conviction Observations:
1. Market Structure & Order Flow
-
Swing Highs (SH): 0.910 (Dec & Feb), 0.900 (Nov), 0.885 (multiple attempts)
-
Swing Lows (SL): 0.770 (Apr), 0.850 (May & Jun), 0.860 (Feb & Mar)
-
Structure Behavior:
-
Multiple failed breakout attempts above 0.885–0.910 suggest significant overhead supply.
-
CHoCH likely near 0.770 (Apr low) followed by demand re-entry and higher lows into June–July — suggesting early accumulation behavior.
-
Short-term trend shifting to upward bias above 0.875–0.880 after reclaiming key resistance.
-
2. Volume-Price Relationship (VPR)
-
Volume Climax (Apr): High-volume wide range down-bar at 0.770 was swiftly reversed — indicates climactic selling absorption.
-
Low Volume Breakout Attempts (Jun–Jul): Current breakout toward 0.885 lacks volume expansion — a red flag for false breakout risk unless validated soon.
-
Volume Clusters: Notable clustering near 0.850–0.865 reflects institutional positioning zones; price consolidating and coiling just below resistance.
3. Institutional Footprint Recognition
-
Liquidity Grab at 0.770 (Apr): Panic flush below key lows absorbed rapidly — classic spring action per Wyckoff.
-
Order Block Zone: 0.850–0.865 zone shows repeated price reaction — likely institutional accumulation zone.
-
Displacement Lacking: No clear wide-range bullish expansion bar to confirm breakout strength yet.
4. Bar Pattern Recognition
-
Inside Bar Clusters (May–June): Several narrow-bodied inside bars — indicative of energy build-up.
-
Recent Bars (July): Tight-range bars around 0.880–0.885 reflect hesitation at resistance — watch for a bullish outside bar to confirm breakout.
5. Multi-Timeframe Confluence
-
Weekly Chart Bias (inferred): Likely still neutral to bullish recovery from April lows; range-bound mid-term.
-
Daily Chart Structure: Now testing the upper boundary of multi-month range with higher lows supporting upward pressure.
Price Levels & Risk Zones:
| Level | Function | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| 0.770 | Major Support | Spring low, institutional absorption |
| 0.850 | Demand Zone | Base of recent rally, accumulation area |
| 0.865 | Micro-Support | High-volume cluster, mini base |
| 0.885 | Current Pivot | Rejected multiple times – breakout threshold |
| 0.910 | Range High | Previous swing highs, target resistance |
| 0.935 | Potential Target | Projected breakout extension |
| 0.875 | Risk Invalidation | Break below invalidates short-term bullish thesis |
Forward-Looking Bias & Triggers:
-
Bullish Bias pending volume confirmation. Close above 0.885 with high relative volume and bullish follow-through bar (preferably > 0.890 close) needed to validate breakout.
-
Failure Risk: A rejection bar with close below 0.875 on volume spike suggests trap and return to mid-range.
-
Sector/Market Correlation Needed: Strength in SGX REITs or broader real estate sector would reinforce breakout case.
Trade Summary Format:
Buying CAPLAND ASCOTT TRUST (SGX: HMN) because price is attempting a breakout from a long-term accumulation range with demand absorption confirmed at 0.770 and higher lows forming; stops at 0.875 targeting 0.910–0.935 for a 1:2.5 risk-reward ratio.
Confidence Rating: 6.5/10
Key Levels to Watch: 0.875 (support), 0.885 (breakout trigger), 0.910 (resistance), 0.935 (extension target)
✅ Execution Checklist:
-
Break and close above 0.885 with increased volume
-
Bullish bar with real body > 50% candle size near resistance
-
No high-volume rejection from 0.885–0.890
-
SGX index and REIT peers in uptrend or stable
Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.
Dividend: 6.33%
No comments:
Post a Comment