Saturday, July 12, 2025

Frasers Log and Com - 11 Jul 25

  • Stock: Frasers Logistics & Commercial Trust (SGX: BUOU)

  • Timeframe: Daily

  • Date Range: Oct 2024 – Jul 2025

  • Bars Analyzed: ~180 trading days


📊 MARKET REGIME CLASSIFICATION: TRANSITION TO RANGE

  • Price has shifted from a persistent downtrend (Oct–Dec 2024) to accumulation/ranging phase (Mar–Jul 2025).

  • Current structure reflects lower volatility, repeated re-tests of demand zones, and failure to break down further—indicative of absorption and potential early accumulation.


🔍 HIGH-CONVICTION OBSERVATIONS:

  1. Swing Structure & Change of Character

    • Clear downtrend from Oct to mid-Dec with progressive lower highs and lower lows.

    • Change of Character (CHoCH) occurred post-0.7555 low in April, followed by higher low at 0.775 in May and now stabilizing near 0.845—suggesting weakening bearish momentum.

    • Short-term BOS occurred with break above 0.825, invalidating prior lower high.

  2. Volume-Price Relationship (VPR)

    • Climactic volume spike at 0.7555 low (April) with wide-range bar—likely capitulation and absorption by strong hands.

    • Subsequent rally to 0.925 (May) occurred on expanding volume, confirming institutional participation.

    • Recent rally from 0.775 to 0.875 (Jun–Jul) showing volume tapering—potential stealth accumulation.

  3. Institutional Footprints

    • April 0.7555 bar = likely Spring in Wyckoff methodology with sharp recovery and V-shaped reversal.

    • Repeated test/retest at 0.775 level (June) suggests institutionally validated support zone.

    • Order block zone near 0.825–0.835 acting as demand base and accumulation platform.

  4. Bar Structure & Pattern Recognition

    • May 2025 shows bullish engulfing candle off demand base at 0.775, marking strong reversal bar.

    • July rally stalling below 0.875 with smaller candles and reduced range suggests minor pullback or re-accumulation pause.

  5. Key Structural & Psychological Levels

    • Support: 0.775 (Spring Low), 0.825 (Order Block), 0.850 (Recent Retest Zone)

    • Resistance: 0.875 (Local high), 0.900 (Supply zone), 0.935 (Range top and liquidity pool)

    • 0.850 is a critical psychological round level—currently acting as a decision pivot.


🧠 MULTI-TIMEFRAME CONTEXTUAL BIAS:

  • Likely higher timeframe support exists near 0.750–0.775 zone.

  • This range-bound structure (0.7555–0.935) may be mid-to-late stage accumulation prior to a more decisive breakout move.


📌 RISK MANAGEMENT & SETUP MAPPING:

  • Entry Zone: 0.840–0.845 (pullback into breakout base)

  • Stop Level: Below 0.825 (structure invalidation zone)

  • Target Zones:

    • 1st: 0.875 (minor resistance)

    • 2nd: 0.900 (supply zone)

    • 3rd: 0.935 (range top/liquidity grab zone)

  • RR Scenarios:

    • Target 1: ~1.5R

    • Target 2: ~2.75R

    • Target 3: ~4.5R


📈 SCENARIO SUMMARY:

Buying BUOU because price has transitioned from a downtrend into accumulation with institutional absorption evident at 0.7555 and support validation at 0.775–0.825, with stops at 0.825, targeting 0.900–0.935 for 2.75R–4.5R, confidence rating: 7.5/10.


🔑 KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:

  • Support: 0.775 (major spring), 0.825 (structure base), 0.850 (pivot)

  • Resistance: 0.875 (minor cap), 0.900 (supply), 0.935 (liquidity trap)


✅ PRE-TRADE CHECKLIST:

  • ☑ Volume expansion on rallies

  • ☑ Confirm absorption on pullbacks

  • ☑ Risk defined by structure (not arbitrary)

  • ☑ Avoid front-running breakouts without volume confirmation


Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

Dividend:  8.05%



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