Technical Analysis – QAF Ltd (SGX: Q01) – Daily Chart | Oct 2024 – Jul 10, 2025 | ~185 Bars
📊 Current Market Regime: Transitioning from Range to Emerging Uptrend
🔍 Highest Conviction Observations:
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Market Structure Shift & Trend Confirmation
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Established Range between ~SGD 0.830 and 0.870 from Oct 2024 to late Jun 2025.
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Break of Structure (BOS) occurred in early July 2025 with a strong breakout above multiple swing highs: 0.870 → 0.915.
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Recent Swing Low (SL): SGD 0.840 (formed mid-June), followed by Higher Highs → trend transition initiated.
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CHoCH confirmed as price held higher lows on pullback (SGD 0.865-0.870 support retest ongoing).
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Volume-Price Relationship & Institutional Footprint
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Volume Expansion on breakout from congestion (~Jul 4–Jul 8): wide-body green candles + increased volume = institutional displacement move.
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Effort vs. Result: July 9–10 pullback shows declining volume → suggests no aggressive selling = bullish absorption.
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Climactic Volume Spike on breakout bar (~Jul 8) likely represents institutional initiative entry (not panic).
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Order Flow Imbalance & Liquidity Sweep
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Price pierced prior swing high zone (0.880) with force → liquidity grab above prior highs at 0.865/0.870/0.880 followed by tight consolidation.
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FVG (Fair Value Gap) now formed between ~0.875–0.895 zone → possible magnet for price retest before next leg.
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Microstructure – Reversal Bar + Absorption
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July 10 bar: small-body red candle with narrow range closing above support (0.865) → potential testing bar post-breakout.
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No follow-through selling suggests ongoing institutional absorption and bullish continuation likely.
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Multi-Timeframe Confluence & Psychological Anchors
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Break above multi-month resistance (0.880) is significant on weekly structure, confirming macro accumulation breakout.
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Psychological level at SGD 0.900 successfully breached and held → round-number retest scenario in play.
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Potential target zone: 0.935 (next structural high from weekly chart alignment).
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📈 Key Levels to Watch
| Level | Significance |
|---|---|
| 0.865 | Microstructure support, breakout retest zone |
| 0.880 | Prior swing high and BOS level |
| 0.895–0.915 | FVG zone and recent breakout range |
| 0.935 | Measured move target from breakout impulse |
| 0.840 | Invalidates current trend thesis if breached |
🧮 Risk Management Parameters
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Entry Consideration: Inside bar continuation or bullish engulfing above 0.870 with volume confirmation.
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Initial Stop: Below 0.840 structural low.
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Target Zone: 0.935–0.950.
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R:R Setup: Approx. 1:3 if entered near 0.870 with stop at 0.840 and target at 0.935.
🧠 Psychological & Volume Checklist
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✅ Price broke multi-quarter resistance cleanly
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✅ Volume expansion confirmed institutional interest
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✅ Post-breakout pullback showing signs of absorption
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✅ Price holding above round number (0.900) short-term
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⚠ Watch for fakeouts below 0.865 — volume reaction at this level is key
📉 Trade Summary Sentence
Buying QAF (SGX: Q01) because of a confirmed breakout from long-term range with institutional volume and absorption behavior at 0.865 support, with stops at 0.840 targeting 0.935 for a 1:3 risk-reward ratio.
Confidence Rating: 8.2 / 10
Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.
Dividend: 5.75%
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