1. CHART SETUP & CONTEXT
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Stock Name / Ticker: Jumbo Group Limited (SGX:JUMBO)
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Chart Timeframe: Daily
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Date Range: September 2024 – July 4, 2025
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Number of Bars Analyzed: ~210 trading days
2. CURRENT MARKET REGIME
Ranging Regime with Emerging Compression
Price has oscillated between SGD 0.245 - 0.285, with repeated failures to expand above 0.285 and persistent demand re-entering at the 0.245–0.250 zone. Structure suggests accumulation with diminishing volatility and volume clustering, particularly around SGD 0.260.
3. HIGH-CONVICTION OBSERVATIONS
🔹 Market Structure & Order Flow
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Swing Highs (SH): 0.285 (Nov), 0.280 (Feb), 0.270 (Jun)
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Swing Lows (SL): 0.245 (Feb), 0.200 (Apr panic low), 0.250 (May)
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CHoCH: Break below 0.245 in early April with immediate reversal marks potential liquidity sweep
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Compression Zone: Last 20+ sessions show tighter bar range between 0.255–0.260 with diminished participation → volatility contraction
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No clear BOS yet, awaiting resolution of range boundaries (0.250–0.270)
🔹 Volume-Price Relationship
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Panic Volume Spike: Early April wide-range bar down to SGD 0.200 with sharp reversal suggests institutional shake-out
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Absorption Volume: High volume bars with small price bodies in June (at 0.255–0.260) = strong hands absorbing supply
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Volume Dry-Up: Recent 10 sessions show significantly lower volume → market potentially coiling for breakout
🔹 Institutional Footprint Recognition
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Shake-Out Zone: Early April drop to SGD 0.200 likely cleaned weak long positions → classic spring pattern (Wyckoff)
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Order Block Zone: Between 0.250–0.255, recent bars show repeated rejection of downside thrusts
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Fair Value Gap (FVG): Gap between 0.245–0.260 following panic flush has been respected → further confirms support region
🔹 Bar Pattern Recognition
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Clustered Inside Bars: Recent sessions (late June to July 4) show multiple tight-bodied bars → coiling price action
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Engulfing Rejection Bars: Notable bullish engulfing off 0.250 level in mid-May shows defense of key demand
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Doji/Indecision Bars: Frequent in current range – reflects equilibrium ahead of possible expansion
🔹 Multi-Timeframe Confluence
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Weekly Structure: Price holding above multi-quarter base (~0.245), suggesting higher timeframe accumulation
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Daily Compression: Suggests imminent resolution; break above 0.270 or below 0.250 will define next leg
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Support-Resistance Confluence: 0.260–0.270 is historical mid-range resistance and equilibrium zone
4. KEY PRICE LEVELS & RISK PARAMETERS
| Type | Level (SGD) | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Major Support | 0.250 | Cluster of rejection wicks, previous shake-out zone |
| Immediate Resistance | 0.270 | Recent swing high and top of compression zone |
| Breakout Trigger | 0.285 | November 2024 high, failed breakout trap, confirmation of structural shift |
| Bearish Invalidator | 0.245 | Below this reopens route to 0.200 zone, invalidates current accumulation |
5. RISK-MANAGED TRADE SETUP EXAMPLE
Setup Bias: Accumulation breakout attempt from range with evidence of institutional defense below.
Trade Summary:
Buying JUMBO because of compression following absorption at 0.250 and signs of accumulation, with stops at 0.245 targeting 0.285 for 2.5R.
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Entry: 0.260
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Stop-Loss: 0.245 (15 ticks risk)
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Target 1: 0.285 (25 ticks reward)
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Risk-Reward: 1:2.5
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Confidence Rating: 7.5/10
✅ PRE-TRADE CHECKLIST
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Structural support confirmed at 0.250
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Volume compression post-shakeout
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Tight range contraction for 3+ weeks
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Risk defined at low of shakeout
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No high-impact catalysts present (pending confirmation)
Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.
Dividend: 3.85%
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