SIA Eng - 31 Jul 25

SIA Engineering (SGX: S59) – Daily Chart Analysis (31 July 2025)
Timeframe: 1D
Analysis Period: ~9 months (~200 bars)
Last Traded Price: 3.07 SGD

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🔍 Current Market Regime: Transitioning from Trending to Potential Reversion (early Distribution signs)

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📌 Highest Conviction Observations:

1. Major Trend Structure & Recent Break of Momentum

   • Swing Low: 1.87 (April 2025), followed by strong uptrend.

   • Swing High: 3.28 (July 2025) marks the current major high.

   • First Clear CHoCH: Break below 3.15 minor support with expanding red bars = initial structural weakness.

   • Momentum Decay Evident: Smaller-bodied green bars transitioning into wide-range red bars; volatility expanding with bearish pressure.

2. Volume-Price Relationship Breakdown

   • Climactic Volume at 3.28 Top: Volume spike on July 10–12 with rejection wicks = potential buying climax.

   • High Volume Wide Range Down Bars (HV WRB): Several strong down days post-3.40 with expanding volume = professional selling.

   • Absorption Identified: On July 24 and 26, notable volume with minimal upward movement = institutional distribution pattern.

3. Institutional Footprint & Liquidity Analysis

   • Liquidity Grab at 3.40+: Quick upside fake-out beyond prior resistance zone into thin liquidity, followed by sharp reversal.

   • Fair Value Gap (FVG) Zone: 3.12–3.20 remains untested with minimal price interaction; likely revisit for mitigation.

   • Order Block Zone: Bearish order block formed at 3.20–3.28 (July 15–18) = area of institutional sell interest.

4. Reversal Bar Clusters & Transition Signals

   • Bearish Engulfing + Wide Red Bars: July 25–30 bars confirm reversal.

   • Inside Bar Breakdown: Narrow range compression July 21–24 followed by range expansion confirms breakdown.

   • Outside Bar on July 29: Failure to reclaim midpoint; closing weak shows continuation.

5. Psychological & Volume Anchors

   • Round Number Support Test at 3.00: Current price testing psychological and historical congestion.

   • Volume Spike near 3.05: Potential demand stepping in—but no confirmation of reversal yet. Requires further testing or reversal bar setup.

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📉 Price Structure & Key Levels

• Support Zones:

  • 3.00 (psychological & minor historical structure)

  • 2.87–2.90 (prior minor pullback from early June)

  • 2.50 (gap origin / pre-trend launch point)

• Resistance Zones:

  • 3.20–3.28 (distribution zone / order block)

  • 3.40 (failed breakout zone)

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📊 Risk-Adjusted Setup Mapping

• Current Bias: Short-biased with caution near 3.00 – price is at key support.

• Stop Placement for Short Entry: Above 3.28 distribution high.

• Profit Target Zones:

  • TP1: 2.90

  • TP2: 2.60

• Potential RRR: 1:2.5 if short near 3.10–3.15 with stop at 3.30 and target at 2.60.

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🔭 Forward Outlook & Confluence Zones

• Watch for Reaction at 3.00: Weak bounce = continuation; strong rejection bar with rising volume = possible temporary low.

• Gap Fill Potential: Downside vacuum remains toward 2.60–2.70 zone if 3.00 fails.

• Higher Timeframe Alignment: Weekly trend remains bullish, but daily shows intermediate correction – MTF compression nearing.

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✅ Summary Trade Sentence Format:

Selling SIA Engineering (S59) because of confirmed distribution at 3.28 with breakdown from key support at 3.15, with stops at 3.30 targeting 2.60 for 1:2.5 risk-reward,
Confidence Rating: 7/10

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🎯 Key Levels to Watch

• Support: 3.00 / 2.87 / 2.60

• Resistance: 3.15 / 3.28 / 3.40

• Volume Markers: High volume near 3.05 needs confirmation for reversal attempt.

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🧾 Execution Checklist:

• Confirm bearish follow-through below 3.00

• Watch volume behavior on bounce attempts

• Align with sector and broader SGX sentiment

• Avoid chasing; look for retracements to short from supply zones

Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

Dividend:  2.61%