Hotung Inv - 09 Jul 25

Technical Analysis Report – HOTUNG INV (SGX: BLS) | Daily Chart | Oct 2024 – Jul 2025 (~190 bars)

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Market Regime Classification:

Current Regime: Ranging → Early Transition Phase

• Price consolidating in a 1.30–1.36 range for several weeks

• Recent breakout attempts showing signs of compression and coiling

• Transition likely if confirmed by volume expansion and structural break

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Top 5 High-Conviction Observations:

1. Market Structure & Order Flow:

   • Swing Highs (SHs): 1.45 (May), 1.42 (late May)

   • Swing Lows (SLs): 1.28 (April), 1.30 (June)

   • CHoCH (Change of Character): March–April selloff broke prior higher low, but re-accumulation near 1.30 indicates potential structural base

   • Recent BOS (Break of Structure): Small BOS above 1.35 in early July with close at 1.36

2. Volume-Price Relationship (VPR):

   • Volume Dry-Up: Notable low-volume bar cluster near 1.30–1.32, suggesting seller exhaustion and potential springboard

   • Absorption Candles: Tight-ranged bars around 1.34–1.35 with moderate volume indicate accumulation efforts

   • No Valid Breakout Yet: Lacks confirming volume expansion above 1.36 resistance zone

3. Institutional Footprint:

   • Possible Order Block Zone: March 2025 wide-range down bar (midpoint ~1.30) acting as support

   • Accumulation Structure: Flat base with rejections below 1.30 aligns with Wyckoff Phase B – potential Phase C test complete

   • No Major Liquidity Grab Yet: 1.45 remains a likely magnet if price surges through 1.36–1.40 with conviction

4. Bar Pattern & Transition Signs:

   • Multiple Inside Bars: Seen in late June to early July – coiling structure, energy building

   • Mini Bullish Engulfing (Jul 8): Engulfing prior red bar, confirming micro-shift in control

   • Wick Rejections: Consistent long lower wicks near 1.30 suggest buyers absorbing dips

5. Psychological & Technical Price Zones:

   • Support: 1.30 (psych level & structural support), 1.28 (liquidity test low)

   • Resistance: 1.36–1.38 (range top), followed by 1.42 and 1.45 swing highs

   • ATR Context: Recent compression likely indicates impending range expansion

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Multi-Timeframe Confluence (M15, H1, Weekly):

• Weekly: Flat base near 1.30 after rejecting 1.45 resistance; base forming for potential markup

• H1 Chart: Micro higher lows forming beneath 1.36, indicating bullish intent

• Time Compression: All timeframes showing structure buildup near 1.35 = high-probability breakout zone

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Key Risk-Adjusted Setup Zones:

• Entry Zone: Break and close above 1.36 with volume expansion

• Stop-Loss: Below 1.30 structural base (clear invalidation)

• Target 1: 1.42 (prior SH), Target 2: 1.45 (range high)

• Risk-Reward: Approx. 1:3 if entry near 1.36, SL at 1.29, TP at 1.45

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Forward-Looking Bias & Levels to Watch:

• Bias: Bullish bias contingent on breakout confirmation above 1.36 with volume

• Key Levels:

  • Support: 1.30 / 1.28

  • Breakout Trigger: 1.36

  • Upside Targets: 1.42 / 1.45

  • Invalidation: Break below 1.28 with volume surge

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Trade Summary:

Buying HOTUNG INV (SGX: BLS) because of a confirmed accumulation base with volume absorption near 1.30, a coiling structure under resistance, and potential breakout above 1.36 with stops at 1.29 targeting 1.45 for a 1:3 risk-reward ratio.

Confidence Rating: 7.5/10
Reminder Checklist Before Execution:

• ✅ Confirm breakout close above 1.36

• ✅ Check volume > 20-day average

• ✅ Align with hourly and weekly confirmation

• ✅ Validate stop placement below 1.30 liquidity shelf

Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

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