Saturday, November 29, 2025

Mapletree Ind - 28 Nov 2025

Mapletree Industrial Trust (ME8U) – Daily Chart – Nov 2025

MARKET REGIME CLASSIFICATION

Regime: Transition → Early Accumulation
Price has shifted from a sharp November liquidation into a basing structure. Selling pressure is weakening, demand is quietly returning, and volatility is compressing near the lows. This is a potential accumulation zone, not yet a confirmed trend reversal.

HIGHEST-CONVICTION OBSERVATIONS

November selloff (2.23 → 2.00) showed panic liquidation, but the follow-through was weak — classic exhaustion selling.
Multiple false breaks near 1.98–2.00 show smart money absorbing supply.
The recent push into 2.06 occurred on slightly rising volume, indicating demand emergence.
Structure is attempting a CHoCH (change of character) — bears losing control.
Key 2.11 FVG gap above remains a high-probability magnet if price sustains above 2.06.

1. Market Structure & Order Flow

Macro Structure

March–July: Downtrend, SH → SL sequence (2.13 → 1.90).
July–Oct: Uptrend, new HHs (1.90 → 2.23).
November: Distributive breakdown from 2.23.

Micro Structure (Recent)

SL: 1.98
Retest SL: ~2.00 cluster
Short-term SH: 2.06
Key lower-high breakdown origin: 2.11

BOS & CHoCH Identification

BOS downward: break of 2.11 → freefall to ~2.00.
CHoCH attempt: break and hold above 2.05–2.06 would mark demand reclaiming control.

Momentum

Downward momentum has collapsed: bars are smaller, overlapping, low-effort selling.

Interpretation:
Smart money is accumulating near lows. Bears are weakening.

2. Volume–Price Relationship (VPR)

Key Volume Signals

High volume, wide range on the Nov crash from 2.23 → 2.10 = panic + profit taking.
High volume, small range at 1.98–2.00 = absorption zone (institutions taking supply).
Volume divergence: Price made new local low at 1.98, but volume decreased → no real selling interest.

Current VPR

Recent uptick to 2.06 is on rising volume → early accumulation confirmation.

3. Institutional Footprints

Liquidity Grabs

Wick sweeps below 1.98–2.00 repeatedly → stop-hunts grabbing liquidity then reversing.

Order Blocks

Bearish OB at 2.11–2.13 (last up bar before the breakdown).
Bullish OB at 1.98–2.00 (last down bars before absorption).

Fair Value Gaps

Clear FVG at 2.11–2.14 (thin volume inefficiency).
This is a magnet target if the low holds.

Displacement

Downward displacement from 2.17–2.11 showed institutional exit.
BUT: No follow-through after hitting 2.00 → indicates capitulation complete.

4. Bar Pattern Recognition

Reversal Bars

At 1.98: Multiple hammer-like bars with long lower wicks = absorption + stop hunts.
At 2.06 (latest bar): Small body but closing near high → constructive demand.

Continuation/Consolidation

Series of small-range inside bar clusters near 2.00 = compression → expansion expected.

5. Multi-Timeframe Confluence

Weekly: Price sitting on HTF demand zone (1.95–2.00) from 2023.
Daily: Attempting CHoCH.
Both timeframes show oversold → accumulation behavior.

Confluence supports reversion upward if 2.00 holds.

6. Psychological Levels

2.00 — major psychological S/R, heavily defended.
2.10 — intermediate level and origin of the November breakdown.
2.20–2.23 — yearly resistance ceiling.

7. Risk-Adjusted Setup Zones

High-Probability Long Zone

Entry region: 2.00–2.05
Reasoning: Absorption, demand return, CHoCH attempt.

Targets

2.11 – FVG fill (low-hanging fruit)
2.17 – prior structural swing high
2.23 – major resistance & top of distribution

Stop Placement

Below 1.97 (beneath liquidity sweep lows)

R/R Expectation

To 2.11 → 1:2 R/R
To 2.17 → 1:3 R/R
To 2.23 → 1:4.5 R/R

8. Market Regime Summary

Current: Accumulation / Transition

Selling exhausted
Buyers quietly stepping in
Breakout likely if 2.06–2.11 clears with volume

9. Institutional Supply/Demand Zones

Demand

1.98–2.00 (primary accumulation zone)
2.03–2.05 (recent demand initiation)

Supply

2.11–2.13 (bearish OB + FVG)
2.17 (swing high supply)
2.23 (macro supply)

Expect price to oscillate between 2.00 and 2.11 before a decisive move.

10. Recent Company Catalyst Correlation

(MIT news over past 90 days)

No major negative catalysts → selling likely technical, not fundamental.
REIT sector rotation mildly negative in early Nov (higher rates volatility).
Volume spikes correlate more with market volatility, not company news.

Implication:
The November selloff was not fundamentally driven, increasing the probability of mean reversion.

FORWARD-LOOKING BIAS

Bias: Mildly bullish above 2.00; strongly bullish above 2.11.

Key Levels to Watch

2.00 → must hold; losing it flips bias bearish
2.06 → break/hold = CHoCH confirmation
2.11 → breakout target + FVG fill
2.17 / 2.23 → trend continuation levels

Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

Dividend: 6.50%

Arthur Wang Technical Analysis