Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX: M44U)
Timeframe: Daily (1D)
Date Range Analyzed: Mid-Oct 2024 to 18 July 2025
Bar Count: ~190 bars
🔍 Current Market Regime:
Transitioning from Accumulation to Early Uptrend
• Structural bottom appears to have formed at 1.03 (April), with a developing sequence of higher lows and higher highs.
• Volume signatures and price behavior suggest institutional re-engagement post-selloff.
📌 Highest Conviction Observations
1. Macro & Micro Market Structure
• Swing Lows (SL): 1.25 → 1.20 → 1.03 → 1.08 → 1.15
• Swing Highs (SH): 1.33 → 1.32 → 1.34 → 1.16 → current test of 1.19
• Break of Structure (BOS): Occurred at 1.16 in June after reclaiming prior resistance
• Change of Character (CHoCH): Triggered in early June – 1.03 low marked capitulation, followed by structural higher lows
2. Volume-Price Relationship (VPR)
• High volume + wide range down (April) = panic sell-off likely driven by news or liquidation (institutional exit)
• Volume absorption observed between 1.05–1.10 → small-bodied candles with increasing volume = smart money accumulation
• Recent rally from 1.08 to 1.18 shows controlled, low-vol retracement, suggesting lack of selling pressure rather than aggressive buying
3. Institutional Footprints
• Liquidity Grab: Clear flush to 1.03 (April) post-earnings before sharp reversal — classic spring action
• Order Block: Bullish OB established in the 1.08–1.10 zone (June) – tested and respected
• Fair Value Gap (FVG): Between 1.16–1.20, now being filled/tested on low volume, suggesting absorption not rejection
4. Bar Pattern Recognition
• Reversal Confirmation: Strong bullish engulfing bar on May 31 off 1.08 with follow-through → confirms intermediate bottom
• Continuation Setup: Inside bar cluster in late June followed by breakout → signal of coiled energy and continuation
• Current Bar (July 18): Small body, low range and volume → pause or absorption under minor resistance at 1.19
5. Psychological & Structural Levels
• Key Resistance: 1.19–1.22 zone = previous swing high and recent supply shelf
• Key Support: 1.15 (recent breakout level), then 1.08 (institutional accumulation zone)
• Round Number Behavior: Price magnetized to 1.20 — psychological barrier for short-term traders
📈 Risk-Adjusted Setup Identification
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Entry Zone: Pullback into 1.15–1.16 for re-entry confirmation
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Stop Placement: Below 1.08 structural low (accumulation zone invalidation)
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Target Zones:
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Short-term: 1.22 (range high fill)
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Medium-term: 1.29–1.32 (prior swing highs)
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R/R Setup: Entry @1.16 → Stop @1.07 → Target @1.29 = 1:1.44
Ideal R/R improvement on deeper pullback entry near 1.12
🔮 Forward-Looking Bias
• If 1.19–1.22 breaks with volume expansion, price likely to accelerate toward 1.29–1.32 range
• If price rejects 1.19 on low volume, expect retest of 1.15–1.12 demand zone
• Structural shift has favored bulls, but breakout requires confirmation with volume expansion
✅ Trade Summary Format
Buying M44U because of confirmed higher lows, institutional accumulation at 1.08, and breakout from inside bar complex with bullish structure shift with stops at 1.07 targeting 1.29 for 1:1.44 risk-reward ratio.
Confidence Rating: 7.5/10
📍 Key Levels to Watch
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Resistance: 1.19, 1.22, 1.29, 1.32
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Support: 1.15, 1.12, 1.08
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Breakout Volume Line: Watch for >150% daily average volume on move above 1.22
✅ Execution Checklist
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Is volume expanding on breakout attempt?
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Has price retested prior resistance as new support (1.15)?
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Are higher timeframes aligned with bullish structure?
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Have news catalysts or earnings aligned with price surge?
Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.
Dividend: 7.03%
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