Arthur Wang Technical Analysis

Thursday, June 25, 2026

Wilmar - 26 Jun 2026

Wilmar International Limited — F34 / SGX

Timeframe: Daily chart
Last shown price: S$3.71

Current Market Regime: Recovery inside a broader corrective range

Wilmar is not in a clean institutional uptrend yet. The dominant structure from April to June shifted from distribution/correction into a recovery phase, but price is now pressing into a supply area around S$3.73–3.83, where prior sellers previously appeared.

The current daily structure is best classified as:

Bearish correction → liquidity sweep at S$3.15 → reclaim rally → supply retest near S$3.70–3.83.

1. Market Structure & Order Flow

Major swing structure

Key swing highs:

S$3.37
S$3.50
S$3.63 / S$3.67
S$3.93
S$4.02
S$3.93
S$3.83
Current minor high zone: S$3.73–3.75

Key swing lows:

S$3.02
S$3.04
S$3.14
S$3.31
S$3.59
S$3.43
S$3.15
S$3.30

The April high at S$4.02 remains the dominant structural high. After that, price printed lower highs at S$3.93 and S$3.83, confirming distribution pressure. The sharp June sell-off into S$3.15 looks like a liquidity grab / stop sweep, because the breakdown was immediately rejected and price recovered back above S$3.30, then S$3.43, and later S$3.62.

Structure shift

The first bullish change of character likely occurred when price reclaimed S$3.43–3.50 after the S$3.15 flush. The stronger bullish confirmation came when price moved back above S$3.62, because that level was the prior reaction low from May and a meaningful supply/demand pivot.

However, price has not yet made a decisive higher high above S$3.83. Until that happens, the current move is still a counter-trend recovery within a broader range, not a confirmed trend continuation.

2. Volume-Price Relationship

Institutional footprint observations

The most important volume event is the large June breakdown candle into S$3.15. That bar shows high effort with a large downside move, but the follow-through failed. This is often consistent with panic liquidation, stop-loss triggering, or institutional absorption.

After that, the recovery from S$3.30 to S$3.71 appears constructive, but not aggressively impulsive. The rally has been orderly, with price grinding higher into resistance rather than exploding through it. That suggests buyers are present, but they have not yet fully overwhelmed supply.

Current price action near S$3.70–3.75 shows hesitation. The candles are smaller and overlapping compared with the earlier recovery leg. That indicates momentum decay near supply, not yet a clean breakout.

3. Retail Trap & Smart Money Read

Bullish trap already resolved

The drop below S$3.30 into S$3.15 likely trapped late sellers. Many retail traders would have shorted or exited on that breakdown, but the immediate recovery created a classic spring-like action.

Current risk: breakout trap near S$3.75–3.83

The next retail trap risk is above the current price. If Wilmar pushes slightly above S$3.75 but fails to close strongly above S$3.83, that could become an upthrust into supply. A weak breakout with poor volume would not be enough confirmation.

A valid bullish breakout needs:

Daily close above S$3.83
Volume expansion
Follow-through candle holding above S$3.75–3.83
No immediate rejection back below S$3.70

4. Key Levels

Level	Meaning
S$4.02	Major swing high / highest visible resistance
S$3.93	Prior failed high / supply zone
S$3.83	Key breakout confirmation level
S$3.73–3.75	Immediate resistance / current decision zone
S$3.62	Reclaimed support / important pivot
S$3.50–3.43	Pullback support zone
S$3.30	Higher-low defense level
S$3.15	Liquidity sweep low / major invalidation zone

5. Bar-by-Bar Interpretation of Recent Action

Recent candles show a controlled recovery from S$3.30 toward S$3.71. The rally is constructive because price has been forming higher lows and reclaiming prior breakdown levels. However, the last few bars near S$3.70–3.75 are not yet showing strong displacement.

That means the current zone is a decision area:

A strong close above S$3.83 would confirm renewed bullish control.
Rejection from S$3.73–3.83 could trigger a pullback toward S$3.62, then S$3.50–3.43.
Loss of S$3.43 would weaken the recovery structure.
Loss of S$3.30 would suggest the June recovery has failed.

6. Setup Quality

Bullish case

A bullish continuation setup improves only if price clears S$3.83. Above that level, the next targets become:

S$3.93
S$4.02
Potential extension above S$4.02 only if breakout volume is strong

Best bullish trigger: daily close above S$3.83 with volume expansion.

Logical stop area: below S$3.62 for tighter structure, or below S$3.43 for wider swing structure.

Bearish / caution case

If price fails near S$3.73–3.83, the chart may rotate lower into support. The first warning sign would be a bearish rejection candle or wide red bar closing below S$3.70. A break below S$3.62 would increase the probability of a pullback toward S$3.50–3.43.

7. Risk-Reward Planning

A clean breakout plan could look structurally attractive only above S$3.83.

Example structure:

Trigger zone: above S$3.83
Stop: below S$3.62
Target 1: S$3.93
Target 2: S$4.02

Risk from S$3.83 to S$3.62 = S$0.21
Reward from S$3.83 to S$4.02 = S$0.19

That is less than 1:1, so the immediate breakout setup is not ideal unless using a tighter stop or waiting for a pullback/retest. A better risk-adjusted long setup would be a controlled pullback toward S$3.62–3.50 that holds with low-volume selling, then reverses higher.

Highest-Conviction Observations

S$3.15 was likely a liquidity sweep, not a clean bearish continuation.
The recovery above S$3.62 is constructive and confirms buyers have regained short-term control.
Price is now testing a supply zone at S$3.73–3.83, where upside momentum may stall.
A close above S$3.83 is required before the chart can shift back toward a bullish continuation profile.
Risk-reward is not attractive at the current price unless a trader has a very precise stop plan.

Forward Bias

Bias is neutral-to-constructive, but not aggressively bullish yet. The chart has repaired the June breakdown, but it has not cleared the important resistance cluster at S$3.83–3.93. The best technical opportunity is likely either:

1. Pullback-and-hold near S$3.62–3.50, or
2. Breakout and retest above S$3.83.

Chasing directly at S$3.71 offers weaker risk-reward because price is close to resistance.

Confidence Rating

6.5 / 10

The structure has improved, but confirmation is incomplete because price is still below S$3.83 and under the larger S$3.93–4.02 supply zone.

Key Levels to Watch

Resistance: S$3.75, S$3.83, S$3.93, S$4.02
Support: S$3.62, S$3.50, S$3.43, S$3.30, S$3.15

Execution Checklist

Before execution, confirm:

Daily close above resistance or clean support reaction
Volume expansion on breakout, or volume dry-up on pullback
Stop placed beyond structure, not at an obvious round number
Minimum acceptable risk-reward of 1:2
No immediate rejection back into the prior range

Buying Wilmar International because price has reclaimed S$3.62 after a likely liquidity sweep at S$3.15, with stops at S$3.43 targeting S$3.93–S$4.02 for approximately 1:1.2 to 1:1.6 risk-reward; confidence 6.5/10.

Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

Dividend: 3.72%

Monday, June 15, 2026

Boustead SP - 15 Jun 2026

Boustead Singapore Limited — F9D

Timeframe: Daily (1D)
Last traded price: SGD 2.07

Market regime

Primary regime: transition/correction within a broader bullish structure.

The longer-term chart remains constructive because price advanced from roughly 1.18 to 2.64, producing a sequence of higher major swing highs and higher major swing lows. However, the rejection from 2.60–2.64 triggered a sharp structural deterioration. The daily chart is now attempting to stabilize after falling to approximately 1.95.

The current rebound to 2.07 is not yet sufficient to confirm a new bullish leg. It is best classified as an early recovery attempt inside a short-term bearish correction.

Highest-conviction observations

1. Major buying climax and failed breakout at 2.60–2.64

Price pushed above the earlier 2.60 high and printed a marginal new high near 2.64, but immediately reversed with a wide bearish move and exceptionally high volume.

This combination suggests:

A liquidity grab above the obvious 2.60 high.
Buyers entering late on the breakout.
Institutional supply overwhelming demand.
A potential Wyckoff-style upthrust or buying climax.

The failure to hold above 2.60 is the clearest distribution footprint on the chart.

2. Bearish change of character after the peak

The decline from 2.64 broke several short-term support areas in rapid succession:

2.40
2.29
2.20
1.99–2.00

Breaking below the previous breakout region around 2.29 represented the first meaningful bearish change of character. Continued selling through 2.20 confirmed that the May advance had lost control.

The correction produced lower highs and lower lows until price reached approximately 1.95.

3. Possible stopping volume near 1.95–2.00

The selloff into the 2.00 region occurred with elevated volume, but price has stopped extending downward and has begun forming smaller, overlapping bars.

This is an effort-versus-result divergence:

High selling effort.
Reduced downward progress.
Possible absorption by stronger buyers.

That improves the probability of a base forming, but absorption alone does not confirm accumulation. Price must reclaim nearby resistance with expanding volume.

4. Current rebound lacks decisive bullish displacement

The recovery from 1.95 to 2.07 is orderly, but the rebound bars are relatively small and volume is not visibly expanding aggressively.

This implies:

Selling pressure has eased.
Buyers are present.
Buyers have not yet demonstrated institutional urgency.

A stronger bullish signal would require a wide-range close above 2.10–2.12, followed by acceptance above 2.20.

5. The correction is deep

The principal advance ran from approximately 1.70 to 2.64, a gain of about SGD 0.94. The decline to 1.95 retraced roughly SGD 0.69, or approximately 73% of that advance.

That is deeper than a normal shallow bullish pullback. It indicates substantial damage to intermediate momentum, even though the broader uptrend has not completely failed.

Market structure map

Major swing highs

1.95 — October
2.29 — February
2.60–2.64 — May/June peak

Major swing lows

1.62 — November
1.70 — March
1.95 — current correction low

Structural events

Bullish BOS: Break above 1.95 in February.
Bullish BOS: Break above 2.29 in late April/May.
Liquidity sweep: Marginal move above 2.60 to 2.64.
Bearish CHoCH: Failure back below 2.40 and 2.29.
Bearish continuation: Breakdown through 2.20 and 2.00.
Current condition: Attempted stabilization above 1.95.

Institutional supply and demand zones

Demand zones

1.95–2.00 — immediate demand

This is the current decision zone. It includes:

The latest reaction low.
The round-number 2.00 level.
The former April breakout area near 1.99.
Evidence of reduced downside progress after heavy selling volume.

A daily close beneath 1.95 would weaken the absorption argument.

1.88–1.92 — secondary demand

This area surrounds the January swing high near 1.90 and an earlier consolidation zone. A decline here would represent a deeper retest of the prior base.

1.70–1.80 — major structural demand

This was the March low and the launching area for the large rally into 2.64. A break beneath 1.70 would materially damage the longer-term bullish structure.

Supply zones

2.09–2.12 — immediate resistance

The current price is testing the first overhead supply generated during the recent decline. Failure here could create a lower high.

2.20–2.29 — major recovery barrier

This zone contains:

Former support.
The February swing high at 2.29.
A likely concentration of trapped buyers.
The origin of accelerated selling.

Reclaiming 2.29 would be the first meaningful evidence that the correction has ended.

2.38–2.45 — secondary supply

This area contains congestion from the May advance and breakdown.

2.60–2.64 — major distribution zone

This remains the dominant long-term resistance and liquidity area.

Volume-price interpretation

Price/volume event	Interpretation
Rising price into 2.60 with increasing activity	Strong participation, but progressively vulnerable to climax
Extreme volume near the 2.64 reversal	Distribution, breakout failure, or buying climax
Wide bearish bars after the high	Professional selling or panic liquidation
Elevated volume near 2.00 with reduced downside progress	Potential stopping volume and absorption
Current rebound on moderate volume	Stabilization, but not yet confirmed accumulation

The most important volume test comes next. A rally above 2.12 or 2.20 should occur with clear volume expansion. A low-volume rally into those levels followed by rejection would favor renewed weakness.

Forward scenarios

Bullish recovery scenario

Conditions:

Price holds above 1.95–2.00.
Daily close above 2.10–2.12.
Follow-through above 2.20 with rising volume.
Pullback holds above 2.05–2.10.

Upside reference levels:

2.20
2.29
2.40
2.60

A recovery above 2.29 would shift the intermediate structure back toward neutral-bullish.

Range-development scenario

Price may consolidate between:

Support: 1.95–2.00
Resistance: 2.20–2.29

This would allow the market to absorb the high-volume distribution from the 2.64 reversal. Repeated tests of 1.95 with decreasing volume would be constructive. Repeated tests with expanding volume would increase breakdown risk.

Bearish continuation scenario

Conditions:

Rejection below 2.10–2.20.
Daily close beneath 1.95.
Volume expansion on the breakdown.
Failed retest of 1.95 from below.

Downside reference levels:

1.90
1.80
1.70

A break below 1.70 would invalidate the broader sequence of higher major lows.

Risk-planning framework

A bullish setup is structurally cleaner only after confirmation above 2.12, with stronger confirmation above 2.20. Using the current support area as a reference:

Illustrative confirmation entry: 2.12
Structural invalidation: below 1.94
Initial objective: 2.29
Extended objective: 2.40
Risk: approximately 0.18
Reward to 2.40: approximately 0.28
Indicative risk/reward: approximately 1:1.6

This does not yet satisfy a preferred 1:2 threshold unless entry quality improves through a controlled retest or the target is extended.

A rejection setup would become more technically defined if price fails around 2.10–2.20 and subsequently closes below 1.95. Chasing weakness directly into support offers poor positioning.

Confidence rating

6/10

The 1.95–2.00 area has credible absorption characteristics, but the chart has not yet produced a confirmed bullish break of structure. The prior high-volume reversal at 2.64 remains a significant distribution signal.

Key levels to watch

Support: 2.00, 1.95, 1.90, 1.80, 1.70
Resistance: 2.10–2.12, 2.20, 2.29, 2.40, 2.60–2.64

Pre-execution checklist

Confirm whether 1.95 continues to hold on daily closes.
Require volume expansion on any break above 2.12 or 2.20.
Avoid treating a low-volume rebound as a confirmed trend reversal.
Place invalidation beyond structure, not at an arbitrary percentage.
Verify the setup on the weekly and intraday charts before execution.
Require at least a 1:2 planned reward-to-risk ratio.

Buying F9D only after confirmation above SGD 2.12 because the SGD 1.95–2.00 demand zone is showing possible absorption, with stops at SGD 1.94 targeting SGD 2.40 for approximately 1:1.6 risk-reward; confidence 6/10.

Friday, June 12, 2026

Q&M Dental - 12 Jun 2026

QC7 — O & M Dental Group (Singapore) Limited

Exchange: SGX | Timeframe: Daily | Last price: SGD 0.595

Market regime: Primary uptrend, short-term consolidation

The dominant structure remains bullish: price advanced from approximately 0.375 to 0.635, producing a sustained sequence of higher swing highs and higher swing lows.

The immediate structure is less directional. Since the April breakout, QC7 has been rotating broadly between 0.570 and 0.615, with the brief move to 0.635 rejected. This is best classified as a bullish trend entering a high-level consolidation, rather than a confirmed reversal.

Highest-conviction observations

Major bullish break of structure occurred above 0.575.
The April advance cleared the previous March swing high near 0.575 with displacement and expanding volume. Price has remained above the former breakout region, preserving the broader bullish structure.
The April volume spike appears more consistent with absorption than outright distribution.
Exceptionally high volume developed around the 0.590–0.605 area, but price did not collapse afterward. Holding near the upper portion of the advance suggests substantial supply was absorbed, although the zone remains a major institutional decision area.
The move to 0.635 resembles a liquidity grab or upthrust.
Price briefly exceeded the prior cluster of highs around 0.610–0.615, then reversed sharply. Buyers entering the breakout above 0.615 were trapped, creating overhead supply between 0.610 and 0.635.
The 0.570–0.575 area is the critical structural support.
This zone has repeatedly attracted demand and represents both a recent swing low and the base of the current trading range. A decisive daily close below it would materially weaken the bullish thesis.
Current price is sitting directly beneath the psychological 0.600 level.
The latest bar opened at 0.595, traded between 0.590 and 0.600, and closed unchanged at 0.595. This is an indecision bar at resistance—not yet a confirmed breakout.

Bar-by-bar structural development

Accumulation and initial markup: 0.375–0.505

The chart began with basing action around 0.375–0.400. Price then expanded to 0.455, corrected to approximately 0.390, and formed a higher low. The subsequent advance through 0.455 and toward 0.505 established the first clear bullish structural sequence.

The volume surge near the August breakout confirmed genuine demand rather than a low-participation drift.

Controlled correction and renewed markup: 0.505–0.550

After reaching 0.505, price retraced toward 0.440. The decline was orderly and did not erase the preceding bullish structure. Strong upward displacement followed, carrying price to approximately 0.550.

The 0.440 low became an important demand reference and confirmed that buyers were willing to defend progressively higher prices.

Intermediate range: 0.480–0.560

From November through February, price rotated between roughly 0.490 and 0.560. Multiple overlapping bars and repeated reversals around 0.515 indicated balance between supply and demand.

This period appears more like reaccumulation than distribution because:

Downside breaks repeatedly failed.
Lows around 0.490–0.515 were reclaimed.
Price eventually exited through the upper boundary.
The subsequent rally showed stronger range expansion.

Spring advance and breakout: 0.515–0.615

The March low around 0.515 was followed by a strong impulse to 0.575. After a pullback, another displacement move cleared 0.575 and rapidly approached 0.600.

This was the most important bullish BOS on the chart. The acceleration, relatively limited overlap, and increasing volume indicate professional participation.

Current range and failed breakout: 0.570–0.635

Since April, price has formed a broad upper-range consolidation:

Lower boundary: 0.570–0.575
Midpoint/pivot: 0.590–0.600
Upper boundary: 0.610–0.615
Liquidity extreme: 0.635

The spike to 0.635 was immediately rejected, producing a short-term bearish change of character. However, the decline stopped around 0.575 rather than breaking the major higher low. Therefore, the bearish shift remains internal to the larger bullish trend.

Volume-price interpretation

April breakout: Rising price and expanding volume validated the move through 0.575.
Largest volume event: High effort produced comparatively limited additional upside around 0.600. This shows heavy two-way institutional activity and absorption.
Post-spike behavior: Price held near the highs instead of returning to 0.515, favoring accumulation/absorption over confirmed distribution.
0.635 rejection: The reversal indicates supply above 0.615, but the associated volume does not appear large enough from the image to confirm a full climactic top.
Recent pullback: Volume appears moderate to subdued, suggesting the retreat toward 0.575 was not accompanied by aggressive institutional liquidation.

Institutional footprint zones

Demand

0.570–0.580: Primary near-term demand and range support. A successful low-volume retest followed by a bullish reversal bar would strengthen the continuation case.

0.545–0.560: Secondary demand, containing former swing highs and breakout structure.

0.510–0.520: Major structural demand and origin of the March–April displacement. Reaching this zone would represent substantial trend deterioration.

Supply

0.600–0.605: Immediate psychological and closing-price resistance.

0.610–0.615: Repeated swing-high supply and the important breakout-confirmation threshold.

0.630–0.635: Liquidity-grab high and strongest visible supply zone.

Forward scenarios

Bullish continuation

A daily close above 0.605, followed by acceptance above 0.600, would indicate that immediate supply is being absorbed. Stronger confirmation would require a close above 0.615 with visible volume expansion.

Potential progression:

0.605 → 0.615 → 0.635 → 0.660–0.665

A breakout that occurs on weak volume and closes back below 0.600 should be treated as another probable retail trap.

Range continuation

Continued closes between 0.575 and 0.605 would preserve the current balance. Entries near the middle of this range provide poor asymmetry because neither buyers nor sellers have structural control.

The strongest information would come from price testing one of the range boundaries.

Bearish structural deterioration

A decisive close below 0.570, particularly with expanding volume, would break the latest meaningful higher low and confirm a daily bearish CHoCH.

Likely downside references would then be:

0.560 → 0.545 → 0.515

A quick recovery above 0.575 after briefly breaking it would instead constitute a potential spring or sell-side liquidity grab.

Risk framework

For a hypothetical breakout structure:

Trigger: Daily close above 0.605, preferably followed by a successful retest.
Structural invalidation: Below 0.575.
Intermediate resistance: 0.615 and 0.635.
Extended objective: 0.660–0.665.
Avoid chasing a wide-range candle directly into 0.615–0.635 supply.

For a hypothetical support-retest structure:

Decision zone: 0.575–0.585.
Confirmation required: Bullish rejection, strong closing location, and preferably reduced selling volume followed by demand expansion.
Invalidation: Sustained close below 0.565–0.570.
First meaningful objective: 0.615–0.635.

Confidence and execution checklist

Confidence: 7/10 for the broader bullish structure; 5/10 for an immediate breakout while price remains below 0.605–0.615.

Key levels: 0.570, 0.575, 0.590, 0.600, 0.605, 0.615 and 0.635.

Before execution, confirm that the daily candle closes beyond the trigger, volume supports the move, the stop sits beyond structural invalidation, the position size respects account risk, and projected reward remains at least twice the defined risk.

Buying QC7 only after a confirmed daily close above SGD 0.605 because the primary higher-high/higher-low structure remains intact and price is re-testing upper-range supply, with stops at SGD 0.575 targeting SGD 0.665 for approximately a 1:2 risk-reward ratio.

Thursday, June 11, 2026

Old Chang Kee - 11 Jun 2026

Old Chang Kee Ltd. — SGX, Daily Chart

Last price: S$1.15

Market regime: Range-to-transition

The broader advance from roughly S$0.90 to S$1.20 has evolved into a prolonged range. April’s breakout to S$1.30 failed, returning price beneath S$1.20. The present structure is therefore neutral on the larger range and mildly bearish on the short-term structure.

Price is now compressed around the important S$1.14–1.15 demand zone.

Highest-conviction observations

Failed bullish break of structure
- Price broke above the established S$1.19–1.20 ceiling and accelerated to S$1.30.
- It could not hold above S$1.20 and quickly returned inside the previous range.
- This resembles a Wyckoff-style upthrust or liquidity grab, trapping late breakout buyers.
Short-term bearish change of character
- Following the S$1.30 peak, price formed successive lower highs near S$1.25, S$1.23, S$1.21 and S$1.19.
- The loss of S$1.20 marked a bearish CHoCH on the daily microstructure.
- Sellers have controlled rallies, although they have not yet broken S$1.14 decisively.
Possible absorption around S$1.15
- Numerous recent candles have small ranges and overlapping closes around S$1.15.
- Price has repeatedly tested this level without producing substantial downside progress.
- This suggests possible passive demand or seller absorption, but it remains unconfirmed until price reclaims S$1.18–1.20.
Volume confirms the April event, not the current direction
- Volume expanded around the breakout and reversal sequence, indicating genuine institutional activity.
- Subsequent declining volume and narrowing bars indicate reduced participation and balance.
- Current low-volume consolidation is more consistent with compression than an established new trend.
The chart remains vulnerable to another retail trap
- Buying inside the range before S$1.20 is reclaimed risks another rejection.
- Shorting directly into S$1.14–1.15 support risks being caught in a shakeout.
- Confirmation outside the present compression offers better structural clarity.

Structure map

Major swing structure

Major swing low: S$0.90–0.92
Intermediate higher lows: S$0.94, S$0.96, S$1.05 and S$1.08
Former range resistance: S$1.18–1.20
Climactic swing high: S$1.30
Current structural pivot: S$1.14–1.15

The longer-term structure remains constructive while above S$1.08–1.11, but the April–June sequence is corrective.

Institutional supply zones

S$1.18–1.20: Immediate supply and repeated rejection zone
S$1.23–1.25: Breakdown origin and trapped-buyer area
S$1.28–1.30: Climactic supply and major liquidity high

Institutional demand zones

S$1.14–1.15: Immediate demand and current range floor
S$1.11–1.12: Secondary structural support
S$1.08: Major range demand
S$1.04–1.05: Deeper historical demand

Bar-by-bar interpretation of the recent phase

The April push through S$1.20 showed displacement and expanding participation.
The upper rejection near S$1.30 demonstrated supply entering at the new high.
The rapid retracement below S$1.20 invalidated the breakout.
Subsequent candles formed lower highs with increasingly overlapping ranges.
Recent bars around S$1.15 show reduced directional result relative to repeated testing.
The market is currently coiling between S$1.14 support and S$1.19 resistance.

This compression should eventually produce an expansion, but the chart does not yet establish which side will prevail.

Forward scenarios

Bullish confirmation scenario

Required evidence:

Daily close above S$1.19–1.20
Noticeable volume expansion
Follow-through or successful retest of S$1.18–1.20 as support

Potential upside levels:

First objective: S$1.23
Second objective: S$1.25
Major objective: S$1.30

A move above S$1.20 without volume or follow-through would remain vulnerable to another false breakout.

Bearish confirmation scenario

Required evidence:

Daily close below S$1.14
Wider bearish candle with expanding volume
Failed recovery back above S$1.15

Potential downside levels:

First objective: S$1.11–1.12
Second objective: S$1.08
Extended objective: S$1.04–1.05

A brief intraday break below S$1.14 followed by a close above S$1.15 would instead qualify as a potential spring or liquidity sweep.

Risk assessment

At S$1.15, the stock is near support but lacks a confirmed reversal candle. Entering here would rely on anticipation rather than confirmation.

The cleaner risk-adjusted configuration is a confirmed breakout above S$1.20 followed by a controlled retest:

Illustrative trigger: S$1.20
Structural invalidation: S$1.16
Major target: S$1.30
Approximate risk-reward: 2.5:1

Confidence and execution checklist

Directional confidence: 6/10
Regime confidence: 8/10

Key levels: S$1.14, S$1.15, S$1.19, S$1.20, S$1.23, S$1.25 and S$1.30.

Before execution, confirm the daily close, volume expansion, retest behavior, structural stop placement, position size and minimum 1:2 risk-reward.

Buying Old Chang Kee Ltd. only after a confirmed break and hold above S$1.20 because this would invalidate the current lower-high sequence, with stops at S$1.16 targeting S$1.30 for approximately 2.5:1 risk-reward; confidence 6/10.

Wednesday, June 10, 2026

Credit Bureau Asia - 10 Jun 2026

Credit Bureau Asia Limited — TCU

Timeframe: Daily
Last price: SGD 1.13
Current bar: O 1.13 | H 1.13 | L 1.12 | C 1.13

Market regime: Bearish markdown transitioning into low-level consolidation

The dominant structure remains bearish. Price has declined from the SGD 1.42 area through a sequence of progressively lower swing highs, followed by a decisive breakdown beneath the long-held SGD 1.23–1.25 support zone.

The present SGD 1.12–1.15 cluster is a pause after a high-volume markdown, not yet a confirmed accumulation base.

Highest-conviction observations

Major bearish break of structure

The broader sequence is:

Major swing high: 1.42
Subsequent lower highs: 1.39, 1.33, 1.30 and 1.29–1.30
Repeated support: approximately 1.23–1.24
Current structural low: 1.12

The late-May/early-June breakdown below 1.23 constitutes the clearest bearish BOS on the chart. There is currently no bullish change of character.

A preliminary bullish CHoCH would require a sustained recovery above 1.18. A more meaningful structural reversal would require acceptance above 1.23–1.25.

The 1.23–1.30 range was likely redistribution

From approximately November through May, price repeatedly oscillated between 1.23 and 1.30. Upside attempts lacked sustained follow-through, while each rally terminated near progressively lower or equal highs.

The eventual high-volume breakdown suggests this range behaved more like redistribution than accumulation. Former support at 1.23–1.25 should now be treated as institutional supply unless price decisively reclaims it.

Recent selloff shows professional displacement

The sharp move from approximately 1.23–1.24 into the 1.14 area occurred with:

A wide bearish price range
Minimal retracement during the move
One of the largest recent volume bars
A break through established multi-month support

This combination represents genuine bearish displacement rather than an ordinary low-volume drift. The move also left a visible inefficiency or gap-like zone approximately between 1.15 and 1.22, which may attract a partial retracement before sellers reappear.

Selling pressure has eased, but demand remains unconfirmed

After the breakdown, the latest candles show:

Small bodies
Overlapping ranges
Repeated trading around 1.13–1.15
Lower volume than the initial selloff
Limited progress beneath 1.12

This indicates reduced immediate selling pressure. However, volume contraction at the lows is not automatically accumulation. It can also represent a lack of buyers and a bearish pause.

Confirmation of absorption would require a strong rejection of 1.12 followed by an expanding-volume close above 1.15 and preferably 1.18.

Several retail-trap patterns are visible

The March spike to approximately 1.18 resembled a liquidity sweep below the 1.23 floor. Price immediately recovered, creating the appearance of a Wyckoff-style spring. However, the subsequent rally failed to clear 1.29–1.30, and the later breakdown invalidated the bullish interpretation.

The late-April push toward 1.30 followed by rapid rejection was an upthrust-like bull trap. Buyers entering the apparent range breakout were subsequently trapped when price returned below 1.25.

The current trap risk is premature bottom-fishing around 1.12–1.15 before any structural reversal has occurred.

Institutional footprint map

Bearish order block / primary supply: 1.23–1.25
This was the final balance area before the major markdown.

Secondary supply: 1.18–1.20
This area may attract sellers during the first meaningful rebound.

Inefficiency zone: approximately 1.15–1.22
A retracement into this region would be normal, but filling the gap would not by itself reverse the trend.

Immediate demand test: 1.12–1.13
Multiple small candles are attempting to stabilize here.

Psychological support: 1.10
A break of 1.12 would likely draw price toward this round-number level.

Scenario planning

Bearish continuation scenario

The cleaner bearish structure would be a rebound into 1.15–1.18, followed by rejection on increasing sell volume.

Validation would include:

Upper rejection wick or bearish engulfing bar
Failure to close above 1.18
Renewed volume expansion
Subsequent close below 1.12

A direct short near 1.13 offers poor location because price is already close to support. Waiting for a failed retracement would provide clearer invalidation and better risk-to-reward.

Potential downside references are 1.12, 1.10 and approximately 1.07–1.08 if 1.10 fails.

Bullish reversal scenario

A credible reversal requires more than small candles at the low.

Evidence would include:

Strong close above 1.15
Follow-through above 1.18
Expanding volume on the advance
Successful retest of 1.15–1.18 as support
Eventual reclaim of 1.23

Above 1.18, price could rotate toward 1.23–1.25. Until 1.23 is reclaimed, any rally remains a countertrend recovery inside a larger bearish structure.

Neutral scenario

Continued movement between 1.12 and 1.15 would indicate compression. Trading within this narrow band provides limited edge because both the stop location and directional confirmation remain unclear.

Key levels

1.12: Immediate structural support
1.10: Psychological support and likely liquidity objective
1.15: Initial micro-range resistance
1.18: Preliminary bullish CHoCH level
1.23–1.25: Major former support and institutional supply
1.29–1.30: Major range ceiling
1.42: Long-term chart high

Confidence assessment

Bearish structural bias: 8/10
Immediate downside continuation: 6/10
Confirmed bullish reversal: 3/10

The higher-confidence conclusion is that the prevailing trend remains bearish. Confidence in selling immediately is lower because price is already compressed near support following a climactic volume event.

Execution checklist

Wait for either a failed rebound into 1.15–1.18 or a confirmed reclaim above 1.18.
Require volume expansion in the intended direction.
Avoid initiating inside the 1.12–1.15 compression.
Place stops beyond structural invalidation, not directly on obvious round numbers.
Maintain at least a 1:2 planned reward-to-risk ratio.
Reduce risk if the opening move gaps materially beyond the planned entry.

Selling TCU only after a failed retest near 1.17 because the 1.23 range floor has broken on high-volume bearish displacement, with stops at 1.20 targeting 1.11 for a 2:1 risk-reward ratio.

Tuesday, June 09, 2026

SIA Eng - 09 Jun 2026

SIA Engineering Co. Ltd. — SGX:S59

Timeframe: Daily
Last bar: O 3.17 / H 3.20 / L 3.15 / C 3.19

Market regime

Higher-timeframe regime: Corrective bearish structure following the November peak at 3.81.
Intermediate regime: Broad balance between approximately 3.06 and 3.39.
Immediate regime: Tight consolidation around 3.15–3.23, with declining momentum and no confirmed directional break.

The chart is not in a clean trend. It is transitioning between a possible accumulation base and a continuation breakdown. Until price leaves the March–June range, directional conviction should remain limited.

Highest-conviction observations

The major bullish cycle ended at 3.81.
The subsequent rallies peaked at 3.74, 3.61, 3.39, and 3.35, producing a persistent sequence of lower swing highs.
Support near 3.06–3.10 has repeatedly absorbed selling.
March reached 3.09, May briefly penetrated to 3.06, and later bars reclaimed the area. This resembles a liquidity sweep or preliminary Wyckoff spring, but the weak upside follow-through means accumulation is not yet confirmed.
The May rally to 3.35 was rejected quickly.
That move likely trapped breakout buyers and reinforced 3.30–3.35 as an institutional supply zone.
Recent bars show compression rather than accumulation confirmation.
Small bodies, overlapping ranges, and subdued volume around 3.19 indicate equilibrium. Buyers are defending the lower range, but they have not demonstrated sufficient displacement to overcome overhead supply.
The next expansion should be judged by volume.
A breakout without clear volume expansion would have a high false-break probability because both boundaries have already experienced liquidity probes.

Market structure and order flow

Major swing sequence

3.02 → 3.64 → 3.35 → 3.81: Bullish expansion and higher-high sequence.
3.81 → 3.38 → 3.74: First meaningful loss of momentum.
3.74 → 3.23 → 3.61: Lower high, followed by renewed selling.
3.61 → 3.09: Bearish displacement and structural deterioration.
3.09 → 3.39 → 3.06 → 3.35: Range formation with repeated liquidity runs.
Current price 3.19: Mid-to-lower portion of the range.

BOS and CHoCH

The late-September move above 3.42 was a bullish break of structure, supported by strong range expansion and exceptional volume.

The first bearish change of character developed when price failed below 3.74 and later broke the 3.38–3.35 swing-low region. The breakdown through 3.23 in March confirmed bearish intermediate structure.

A bullish CHoCH now requires:

Initial reclaim of 3.30
Daily close above 3.35
Stronger confirmation above 3.39

A bearish continuation BOS requires a decisive close below 3.06, preferably followed by an unsuccessful retest from underneath.

Volume-price analysis

The most obvious institutional participation occurred during the late-September breakout. Wide bullish bars combined with the chart’s largest visible volume cluster showed genuine demand and professional displacement.

During the later decline, selling volume expanded around major breakdown points, but repeated tests of 3.06–3.10 have not yet produced sustained downside continuation. This suggests some absorption at the lower boundary.

Recent volume is comparatively subdued while price remains compressed. That is consistent with a volume dry-up before expansion, but it does not indicate direction by itself.

Important volume confirmation:

Bullish: Expansion through 3.30–3.35, accompanied by a wide closing range near the daily high.
Bearish: Expansion below 3.06, accompanied by a close near the daily low.
Trap warning: A wick outside either boundary followed by a close back inside the range.

Institutional footprints and retail traps

Potential spring

The May decline to 3.06 marginally undercut the March low near 3.09, then recovered. This likely collected sell stops beneath a visibly defended level.

However, a valid Wyckoff spring should generate stronger subsequent demand. Because the rebound stalled at 3.35 and returned to 3.19, the spring remains provisional rather than confirmed.

Potential upthrust

The May push to 3.35 was rejected and failed to develop into a bullish structural break. Buyers entering above the preceding short-term highs were trapped as price returned to the lower half of the range.

Effort versus result

Repeated activity near the lower boundary has produced only limited downside progress. That is mildly constructive. Conversely, multiple rallies have also failed below 3.35–3.39, showing persistent supply absorption of buying pressure.

The result is a two-sided auction rather than clear institutional control.

Supply and demand zones

Immediate demand: 3.15–3.10
Current short-term support and location of repeated lower wicks.

Major demand/liquidity zone: 3.06–3.02
Contains the May and August lows and represents the critical range floor.

Last defensive support: 2.94
Visible chart low and logical first downside objective after a failed range floor.

Immediate resistance: 3.23–3.24
Top of the latest micro-consolidation.

Pivot resistance: 3.30
Repeated decision level and prior support/resistance.

Major supply: 3.35–3.39
Contains the April and May swing highs and the most important bullish invalidation area.

Higher resistance: 3.47, followed by 3.61
Relevant only after a confirmed bullish regime change.

Scenario planning

Bullish scenario

A daily close above 3.35–3.39, supported by expanding volume and followed by a successful retest, would invalidate the current lower-high sequence.

Potential structural objectives:

First reaction zone: 3.47
Partial-profit zone: 3.61
Extended objective: 3.74

A bullish breakout that immediately closes back below 3.30 would be treated as a failed breakout rather than confirmation.

Bearish scenario

A decisive daily close below 3.06 would break the established range floor and confirm continuation of the larger lower-high/lower-low structure.

Potential objectives:

Initial reaction: 2.94
Range-width projection: approximately 2.73

The range width is roughly 3.39 − 3.06 = 0.33. Projecting that distance below 3.06 produces the 2.73 measured-move area.

Neutral scenario

Continued closes between 3.10 and 3.30 would maintain the present balance. Entries near the middle of this range offer poor location because stops must be relatively wide while nearby resistance limits reward.

Risk assessment

The current price of 3.19 is not at a high-quality asymmetrical location. It is above major support but still beneath several layers of supply.

The cleaner risk-defined opportunities would occur only:

Near 3.06–3.10, following a confirmed rejection and bullish follow-through
Above 3.35–3.39, following breakout and retest
Below 3.06, following breakdown and failed recovery

No dependable ATR calculation, sector-relative strength assessment, or higher-timeframe confirmation can be derived from this single daily screenshot.

Confidence: 6/10
Key levels: 3.06, 3.10, 3.23, 3.30, 3.35–3.39, 3.61
Execution checklist: Confirm the daily close, demand volume expansion, avoid entering after a wick-only breakout, place the stop beyond structure, and verify that projected reward remains at least twice the defined risk.

Selling S59 only after a confirmed breakdown below 3.06 because the larger lower-high structure and range-floor failure would signal bearish continuation, with stops at 3.18 targeting 2.73 for approximately a 2.7:1 risk-reward ratio.