Arthur Wang Technical Analysis

Thursday, May 28, 2026

UOI - 28 May 2026

U13 — United Overseas Insurance Ltd.

Timeframe: Daily chart, SGX
Last shown price: 8.20 SGD
Market regime: Bullish-to-neutral consolidation after a sharp markup phase

1. Macro Structure

U13 transitioned from a broad range/accumulation structure between roughly 7.49–8.09 into a strong upside displacement in February–March.

Key structure:

Major swing lows: 7.49, 7.51, 7.70, 8.13
Major swing highs: 8.09, 8.23, 8.30, 8.35
The breakout above 8.09–8.23 marked a clear break of structure bullish
Price is now consolidating below the recent high at 8.35, with support developing around 8.13–8.20

This suggests the chart is no longer in the older lower range; it is now testing whether the recent markup can hold as a higher-level base.

2. Volume & Institutional Footprint

The strongest institutional clue appears around the February–March rally:

Wide bullish candles with volume expansion suggest professional accumulation or repricing
The pullbacks after the move were relatively contained, especially above 8.13
Recent candles show smaller ranges and overlapping bodies near 8.20–8.30, suggesting absorption / balance, not aggressive distribution yet
The red candles near the 8.30–8.35 zone show supply appearing at resistance, but sellers have not forced a decisive breakdown

The key issue is that volume looks uneven and thin in several recent sessions, which means a breakout above 8.35 needs volume confirmation to avoid becoming a retail trap.

3. Bar-by-Bar Price Action Read

The latest phase shows:

Price rejected from 8.35, confirming that level as near-term supply
Pullback held above 8.13, preserving the higher-low structure
Current price at 8.20 sits near a short-term decision zone
Multiple small-bodied candles around 8.20–8.30 indicate compression
A daily close below 8.13 would weaken the bullish structure and suggest the breakout is failing

The chart is currently in a compression zone after expansion, which often precedes either continuation or a deeper mean-reversion move.

4. Key Levels

Level	Role	Meaning
8.35	Major resistance	Recent high; breakout confirmation level
8.30	Minor resistance	Short-term supply zone
8.20	Pivot	Current balance/decision level
8.13	Key support	Recent swing low; bullish structure invalidation area
8.09	Former breakout zone	Important retest support
7.90–7.94	Deeper support	Previous range resistance, now potential demand
7.70	Major structural support	Loss of this would shift structure bearish

5. Scenario Planning

Bullish continuation scenario:
Price holds 8.13–8.20, then reclaims 8.30 and breaks above 8.35 with stronger volume. That would suggest continuation toward a measured-move zone around 8.45–8.55.

Neutral consolidation scenario:
Price continues rotating between 8.13 and 8.35. This would imply the market is building a new base after the prior markup.

Bearish failure scenario:
A daily close below 8.13, especially on expanded volume, would signal loss of short-term structure. Below that, price may revisit 8.09, then 7.94–7.90.

6. Risk Planning

A technically cleaner long-side setup would require either:

A confirmed breakout above 8.35, or
A pullback hold near 8.13–8.20 with bullish rejection and improving volume

Logical risk areas:

Aggressive stop zone: below 8.13
Conservative stop zone: below 8.09
First upside target: 8.35
Extended target: 8.45–8.55

Estimated risk-reward from 8.20 entry / 8.09 stop / 8.45 target is approximately 1:2.3.

Highest Conviction Observations

The broader structure remains constructively bullish above 8.13.
8.35 is the key breakout trigger.
Recent consolidation looks more like absorption/compression than a confirmed reversal.
A loss of 8.13 would materially reduce the bullish case.
Volume confirmation is essential because recent trading appears relatively thin.

Confidence Rating

6.5 / 10
The structure is bullish, but confirmation is incomplete while price remains below 8.35.

Key Levels to Watch

Resistance: 8.30, 8.35, 8.45–8.55
Support: 8.20, 8.13, 8.09, 7.94–7.90

Execution Checklist

Confirm daily close direction.
Check whether volume expands on breakout or breakdown.
Avoid chasing into 8.35 without confirmation.
Define stop below structure before entry.
Target minimum 1:2 risk-reward.

Buying U13 because price is holding a higher-low structure after a bullish breakout, with stops at 8.09 targeting 8.45 for approximately 1:2.3 risk-reward.

Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

Dividend: 1.89%

Wednesday, May 27, 2026

CapLand India - 26 May 2026

CY6U — CapitaLand India Trust | SGX | Daily Chart Analysis

Current market regime: Bearish-to-sideways transition after sharp institutional distribution.
The chart shows a strong prior uptrend into the 1.32 high, followed by a high-volume downside displacement into the 1.00–1.03 demand zone. Since the March breakdown, price has entered a compression/range phase between roughly 1.00 support and 1.06–1.09 resistance.

1. Macro Structure: From Uptrend to Breakdown

Prior bullish structure

From June through early February, CY6U formed a clear sequence of:

Higher lows: 0.99 → 1.13 → 1.14 → 1.17 → 1.19 → 1.21 → 1.23
Higher highs: 1.05 → 1.10 → 1.20 → 1.23 → 1.26 → 1.32

That structure confirmed an institutional markup phase.

Change of character

The first major warning came after the 1.32 high. Price failed to hold above the prior breakout area and then broke down aggressively through:

1.26
1.23
1.21
1.17
1.14

This was not a normal pullback. It was a structural breakdown / CHoCH from bullish trend into bearish displacement.

Current structure

Since the selloff, price has stopped making clean lower lows below 1.00, but it has also failed to reclaim meaningful resistance above 1.06–1.09.

Current structure is therefore:

Primary trend: damaged / bearish after breakdown
Short-term structure: sideways accumulation or weak base-building
Key pivot: 1.03 current area
Bullish confirmation only above: 1.06, then 1.09
Bearish continuation below: 1.00

2. Volume-Price Relationship

March selloff volume

The largest volume appears during the sharp March decline. This is significant because the price movement was wide and directional.

Interpretation:

High volume + wide bearish range = professional liquidation or panic selling
The breakdown was not subtle; it likely triggered stops below obvious support zones.
Retail holders were likely forced out during the fast move into the 1.00 area.

Support test at 1.00

The 1.00 level has been tested more than once and has held so far. This is important because:

1.00 is a psychological round number.
High volume appeared near the base.
Price did not continue collapsing below 1.00, suggesting some demand absorption.

This does not confirm a bullish reversal yet, but it does suggest sellers are losing momentum near that level.

April–May volume behavior

Volume has reduced compared with the March panic phase. Price is now moving sideways with smaller candles around 1.02–1.06.

This suggests:

Volatility compression
Reduced aggressive selling
Possible base formation
But also lack of strong bullish sponsorship so far

A true reversal would need volume expansion on a break above 1.06–1.09.

3. Institutional Footprint / Trap Analysis

Possible liquidity grab

The move into 1.00 likely swept liquidity below prior visible support. The quick rebound attempts afterward suggest this may have been a liquidity grab / stop run.

However, the recovery has been weak so far. A genuine spring should usually show stronger follow-through back above resistance.

Supply overhead

The breakdown created a major overhead supply zone between:

1.09
1.14
1.17

Trapped buyers from the decline may sell into rallies, making the recovery difficult unless price breaks resistance with strong volume.

Current compression

The repeated inability to move decisively above 1.06 suggests sellers are still defending the upper end of the short-term range.

Current range:

Support: 1.00–1.02
Midpoint: 1.03–1.04
Resistance: 1.06
Major breakout trigger: 1.09

4. Key Levels

Level	Role	Meaning
1.00	Major support	Psychological level and post-selloff demand zone
1.02–1.03	Current balance area	Price is consolidating here
1.06	Immediate resistance	Recent swing high / range ceiling
1.09	Major resistance	Recovery high after breakdown
1.14	Structural resistance	Prior breakdown zone
1.17–1.21	Heavy supply zone	Former support now likely resistance
0.955	Chart low reference	Breakdown invalidation zone if 1.00 fails

5. Bar-by-Bar Read

February top area

The rally into 1.32 showed extended price action. After that, the candles began losing upward follow-through. The inability to sustain above the high marked potential distribution.

Breakdown sequence

The large red bars into March were displacement candles. They broke multiple prior swing lows without meaningful recovery, confirming a bearish institutional move.

March base

The sharp decline into 1.00 was followed by rebound attempts. This indicates demand appeared, but the rebound lacked enough force to reclaim the lost structure.

April range

Price tested the 1.00 zone again and bounced, but each recovery stalled below 1.07–1.09. This shows the market is still in repair mode.

Current May action

Price is sitting near 1.03, slightly above the support band. The recent candles are narrow and overlapping, suggesting indecision. Sellers are no longer in full control, but buyers have not proven strength either.

6. Scenario Planning

Bullish Scenario

A constructive long setup only improves if price:

Holds above 1.00–1.02
Reclaims 1.06
Breaks 1.09 with volume expansion
Retests 1.06–1.09 successfully as support

Bullish targets if confirmed:

First target: 1.06
Second target: 1.09
Extension target: 1.14
Larger recovery target: 1.17–1.21

The best bullish evidence would be a strong close above 1.09, because that would break the short-term range and challenge the post-crash supply zone.

Bearish Scenario

Bearish continuation becomes more likely if price:

Fails repeatedly below 1.06
Breaks below 1.02
Closes below 1.00 on expanding volume

Bearish downside levels:

First downside level: 1.00
Next support: 0.98–0.955
Breakdown risk increases sharply below 0.955

A daily close below 1.00 would be a serious warning because it would invalidate the base-building attempt.

7. Risk-Adjusted Setup Zones

Aggressive long zone

Entry zone: 1.02–1.03
Stop: below 1.00, ideally below 0.995
Target 1: 1.06
Target 2: 1.09
Approximate R:R: around 1:1.5 to 1:2.5, depending on entry

This is aggressive because price has not yet broken resistance.

Conservative long confirmation

Entry trigger: daily close above 1.06
Better confirmation: close above 1.09
Stop: below the breakout/retest level
Target: 1.14, then 1.17
Approximate R:R: potentially 1:2+

This is cleaner because it waits for strength.

Bearish breakdown setup

Trigger: daily close below 1.00
Stop: above 1.03–1.04
Target: 0.955
Approximate R:R: depends on entry, but structure improves if breakdown has volume confirmation

8. Highest-Conviction Observations

The prior bullish trend is broken. The fall from 1.32 to 1.00 destroyed the previous higher-low structure.
The 1.00 level is the most important support. It has held multiple times and acts as the base of the current range.
The 1.06–1.09 area is the key resistance zone. Until this is reclaimed, the chart remains a weak sideways base rather than a confirmed reversal.
Volume suggests capitulation occurred in March. That may support a base, but confirmation is still missing.
Current price action is neutral-bearish until a breakout occurs. Price is stabilizing, but not yet trending upward.

Confidence Rating

Confidence: 6.5 / 10

Reason: The chart clearly shows a breakdown and current range, but the next directional move is not yet confirmed. The 1.00 support and 1.06–1.09 resistance levels are well-defined, but price remains in the middle of the range.

Key Levels to Watch

Support: 1.02, 1.00, 0.955
Resistance: 1.06, 1.09, 1.14, 1.17
Bullish confirmation: daily close above 1.06, stronger above 1.09
Bearish confirmation: daily close below 1.00
Invalidation for bullish base: sustained trade below 0.955

Execution Checklist Before Trade

Check before execution:

Has price closed above resistance or is it still inside the range?
Is volume expanding in the direction of the move?
Is the stop placed beyond a real structural level?
Is the reward at least 2x the risk?
Is price near support/resistance, or in the middle of the range?
Is the trade based on confirmation, not prediction?

Buying CY6U because price is attempting to build a base above the 1.00 support zone with stops at 0.995 targeting 1.06–1.09 for approximately 1:2 risk-reward; confidence 6.5/10.

Monday, May 25, 2026

CapLand IntCom - 25 May 2026

C38U — CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust

Timeframe: Daily chart, SGX
Last shown price: S$2.29
Current market regime: Range-bound / transition regime with bearish pressure easing near support

The chart shows C38U trading inside a broad multi-month range, with repeated rejection near S$2.44–2.57 and repeated demand appearing around S$2.21–2.25.

1. Macro Market Structure

Primary range

C38U has been oscillating between:

Major resistance / supply: S$2.44–2.57
Mid-range pivot: S$2.31–2.35
Major support / demand: S$2.21–2.25

The strongest upside sequence occurred from the February base near S$2.31 into the February high at S$2.57, followed by a sharp rejection. That rejection created a major swing high and confirmed strong supply above S$2.50.

The later April rally into S$2.51 failed below the prior S$2.57 high, forming a lower high. This is important because it shows upside momentum weakening despite buyers being able to push price back toward the upper range.

2. Swing High / Swing Low Mapping

Key swing highs

S$2.39 — October / December resistance area
S$2.44 — January resistance
S$2.57 — February major high
S$2.51 — April lower high

Key swing lows

S$2.25 — September / March support area
S$2.29–2.31 — repeated mid-range support
S$2.21 — May downside liquidity low

The current structure is not a clean uptrend. After the February peak, price has made a sequence of lower highs and lower lows into May, but the recent bounce from S$2.21 suggests sellers may be losing force near the lower boundary.

3. Break of Structure and CHoCH

Bearish structure break

The failure from S$2.51 in April, followed by the break below S$2.31, created a bearish shift in the short-term structure. This turned the prior mid-range support into a resistance/pivot zone.

Possible early bullish CHoCH

The recent move from S$2.21 back toward S$2.29–2.31 is an early recovery attempt, but it is not yet a confirmed bullish change of character.

A stronger bullish CHoCH would require:

Daily close back above S$2.31
Follow-through above S$2.35
Preferably rising volume on the recovery

Until then, the bounce remains a support reaction, not a confirmed trend reversal.

4. Volume-Price Relationship

Key observation: May selloff had elevated volume

The decline into S$2.21 occurred with noticeable volume expansion. This suggests either:

Panic selling / stop-loss triggering near obvious support, or
Institutional absorption if price fails to continue lower

The fact that price rebounded from S$2.21 after the flush is constructive, but not conclusive.

Effort vs. result

Recent bars show price recovering from the low, but the bounce is still testing the underside of the prior breakdown zone around S$2.29–2.31. If volume rises but price cannot reclaim S$2.31, that would indicate supply absorption by sellers.

If volume expands and price closes decisively above S$2.31, that would indicate buyers are absorbing supply and attempting to reclaim control.

5. Institutional Footprint Analysis

Possible liquidity grab near S$2.21

The May move below the prior S$2.25 support zone appears to have swept downside liquidity. Retail stops were likely clustered below S$2.25, and the quick rebound suggests a possible spring-type action.

This becomes more valid only if price reclaims S$2.31 and holds above it.

Supply remains overhead

The strongest visible institutional supply zones are:

S$2.35–2.39
S$2.44–2.51
S$2.57 major rejection high

Each prior rally into these zones was met with selling. That means long setups from here need confirmation rather than anticipation.

6. Bar-by-Bar Read of the Recent Action

The recent May sequence shows:

Sharp bearish candles from the S$2.35–2.39 area.
Breakdown through S$2.31.
Flush into S$2.21 with expanded volume.
Recovery attempt back to S$2.29.
Current price stalling near the former breakdown area.

This is a classic test of reclaimed support versus failed bounce area.

The market is currently deciding whether S$2.29–2.31 becomes reclaimed support or acts as resistance before another leg lower.

7. Key Levels to Watch

Zone	Meaning
S$2.21	Recent liquidity low / critical defensive support
S$2.25	Prior support, now important retest level
S$2.29–2.31	Current decision zone / mid-range pivot
S$2.35	First upside confirmation level
S$2.39–2.42	Next supply zone
S$2.44	Major resistance from prior swing highs
S$2.51–2.57	Upper-range supply / major rejection zone

8. Bullish Scenario

A constructive bullish setup develops if price:

Holds above S$2.25
Reclaims S$2.31 on a daily close
Pushes through S$2.35 with volume expansion
Avoids immediate rejection back below S$2.29

In that case, upside targets become:

S$2.35
S$2.39–2.42
S$2.44
Extended target: S$2.51

This would support the interpretation that the May low at S$2.21 was a liquidity sweep and accumulation attempt.

9. Bearish Scenario

The bearish case strengthens if price:

Fails below S$2.31
Rejects from S$2.29–2.35
Breaks below S$2.25
Closes below S$2.21

A breakdown below S$2.21 would invalidate the spring/bounce thesis and suggest the range is expanding lower. The next downside area would likely be around S$2.17–2.19, based on the earlier left-side support area visible on the chart.

10. Risk-Reward Planning

Aggressive long structure

Entry zone: S$2.29–2.31 reclaim
Stop: Below S$2.21
Target 1: S$2.35
Target 2: S$2.39–2.42
Target 3: S$2.44
Approximate R:R to S$2.44 from S$2.30 with stop at S$2.21: about 1.6R

This is not ideal unless confirmation improves.

Cleaner long structure

Entry trigger: Daily close above S$2.35
Stop: Below S$2.25–2.27
Target: S$2.44–2.51
R:R improves only if the entry is close to the breakout level and stop can be structurally tightened.

Bearish continuation structure

Trigger: Rejection below S$2.31, followed by break below S$2.25
Stop: Above S$2.35
Target: S$2.21, then S$2.17–2.19

Highest-Conviction Observations

C38U is range-bound, not trending cleanly.
S$2.29–2.31 is the immediate decision zone.
The May flush into S$2.21 may be a liquidity grab, but confirmation is still missing.
Upside supply remains heavy from S$2.35 to S$2.44.
A daily close below S$2.21 would shift the chart materially bearish.

Bias and Confidence

Current bias: Neutral-to-slightly constructive while price holds above S$2.21, but confirmation requires reclaiming S$2.31–2.35.

Confidence rating: 6/10

Execution Checklist

Before execution, confirm:

Daily close above or below S$2.31
Volume expansion on the directional move
No immediate rejection wick at S$2.35
Stop is placed beyond structure, not arbitrary percentage
Risk-to-reward is at least 1:2
Position size is reduced if entering inside the range

Buying C38U because price may be forming a spring recovery from the S$2.21 liquidity sweep with stops at S$2.21 targeting S$2.44 for approximately 1.6:1 risk-reward.

Key levels to watch: S$2.21, S$2.25, S$2.31, S$2.35, S$2.39, S$2.44, S$2.51.

Friday, May 22, 2026

CapLand Ascendas - 22 mAY 2026

Capitaland Ascendas REIT — A17U.SGX

Timeframe: Daily chart
Last shown price: ~S$2.52
Market regime: Bearish-to-base-building transition after a sharp markdown phase.

1. Market Structure & Order Flow

Higher-level structure

A17U had a clear distribution-to-markdown sequence:

Prior range resistance: S$2.83–S$2.91
Breakdown area: S$2.75–S$2.72
Sharp displacement lower into March: S$2.61 → S$2.52 → S$2.42
Current price has rebounded from the S$2.42 low back toward S$2.52

The key structural damage occurred when price lost the S$2.72–S$2.75 support shelf. That turned the chart from a broad range into a bearish markdown phase.

Current structure

Near-term structure is no longer aggressively bearish, but it is not yet bullish either.

Recent low: S$2.42
Current recovery level: S$2.52
Immediate resistance: S$2.55–S$2.61
Major reclaim level: S$2.61
Bearish continuation trigger: failure below S$2.45–S$2.42

A daily close above S$2.61 would be the first meaningful change-of-character signal. Until then, the recovery is still a bounce inside a damaged structure.

2. Volume-Price Relationship

March breakdown

The March selloff showed wide bearish candles with rising volume, which suggests genuine supply pressure rather than a quiet drift lower. That move from the S$2.70 area into S$2.52/S$2.42 looks like a professional markdown or forced liquidation phase.

Late March / April activity

Around the S$2.42–S$2.52 zone, volume expanded materially while downside follow-through began to slow. That is important.

This suggests possible absorption:
high volume, but price did not continue collapsing with the same intensity.

However, absorption is only confirmed if price can reclaim resistance. Right now, it is only a potential accumulation/base-building clue, not confirmation.

Current bounce

The move back to S$2.52 is constructive, but the chart still needs stronger volume expansion through S$2.55–S$2.61 to validate demand. Without that, the bounce may simply be short-covering or a weak mean-reversion move.

3. Institutional Footprint & Trap Analysis

Possible liquidity sweep

The drop into S$2.42 appears to have swept the obvious lows beneath the prior S$2.52 support. That type of move can trap late sellers if price quickly reclaims the broken level.

The reclaim of S$2.50–S$2.52 is constructive because it puts price back above the breakdown zone.

Potential spring behavior

There is a possible Wyckoff spring-style action near S$2.42, but confirmation requires:

Holding above S$2.45
Reclaiming S$2.55
Breaking and closing above S$2.61
Volume increasing on the upside, not only on selloff days

Without those confirmations, the S$2.42 move remains a low, not a proven spring.

4. Key Support and Resistance Zones

Zone	Level	Meaning
Major support	S$2.42	Current swing low / liquidity sweep area
Near support	S$2.45–S$2.49	Recent base support
Pivot	S$2.52	Current reclaim area
Immediate resistance	S$2.55–S$2.57	Short-term supply zone
Major resistance	S$2.61	Prior rejection high / breakout trigger
Higher resistance	S$2.65–S$2.72	Former breakdown zone
Major overhead supply	S$2.75–S$2.81	Old range support turned resistance

The most important level on this chart is S$2.61. A17U has failed there twice. Until that level is reclaimed, sellers still control the broader daily structure.

5. Bar-by-Bar Read

Recent price action shows:

Strong bearish displacement into March.
Selling climax behavior near S$2.52–S$2.42.
Choppy overlapping bars after the low, suggesting a base-building attempt.
Two failed pushes near S$2.61, showing supply remains active.
Current rebound from below S$2.50 back to S$2.52, showing demand is returning but not yet dominant.

The present bar is constructive because price is lifting from the low area, but it is still below the key supply band.

6. Scenario Planning

Bullish recovery scenario

A stronger recovery case develops if A17U:

Holds above S$2.49–S$2.50
Breaks S$2.55
Closes above S$2.61 with volume expansion

In that case, upside targets become:

S$2.65
S$2.72
S$2.75–S$2.81

Bearish continuation scenario

The bearish case returns if A17U:

Rejects at S$2.55–S$2.61
Breaks below S$2.49
Loses S$2.45
Retests or breaks S$2.42

Below S$2.42, the chart risks another markdown leg.

7. Risk-Adjusted Trade Planning

For a long-side recovery setup, the cleanest risk structure would be:

Entry trigger: Break and daily close above S$2.55, stronger confirmation above S$2.61
Stop zone: Below S$2.45 or structurally below S$2.42
First target: S$2.61
Second target: S$2.65–S$2.72
Extended target: S$2.75–S$2.81

Approximate risk-reward from S$2.52 entry, stop S$2.42, target S$2.72:
Risk = S$0.10, reward = S$0.20, giving roughly 1:2 R/R.

A more conservative entry above S$2.61 would reduce reversal risk but also reduce reward-to-risk unless the stop is tightened.

Highest-Conviction Observations

The broader daily structure remains damaged below S$2.61.
S$2.42 is now the critical low; losing it would invalidate the base-building thesis.
The recovery above S$2.50–S$2.52 is constructive but not yet confirmed.
Volume around the lows suggests possible absorption, but confirmation requires upside volume through S$2.55–S$2.61.
The best technical signal would be a daily close above S$2.61, turning the recent range into a confirmed reversal attempt.

Confidence Rating

Confidence: 6/10

The chart shows early constructive behavior after a sharp selloff, but the structure has not yet confirmed a bullish reversal. The setup improves materially only above S$2.61.

Key Levels to Watch

Support: S$2.49, S$2.45, S$2.42
Resistance: S$2.55, S$2.61, S$2.65, S$2.72
Bullish confirmation: Daily close above S$2.61
Bearish invalidation: Daily close below S$2.42

Pre-Execution Checklist

Confirm that price closes above resistance, volume expands on the breakout, stop placement is below structure rather than arbitrary, risk-reward is at least 1:2, and position size is adjusted before entry.

Buying A17U because price is attempting to reclaim the S$2.50–S$2.52 base after a possible S$2.42 liquidity sweep, with stops at S$2.42 targeting S$2.72 for a 1:2 risk-reward ratio.

Wednesday, May 20, 2026

Mapletree Ind - 20 May 2026

ME8U — Mapletree Industrial Trust

Timeframe: Daily chart, SGX
Last shown price: ~S$1.94
Market regime: Bearish-to-rangebound transition with downside pressure still active

1. Macro Structure: Daily Market Context

ME8U has shifted from an earlier constructive structure into a lower-high / lower-low environment.

Key structural sequence:

Earlier swing highs: 2.23 → 2.13 → 2.08
Important swing lows: 2.01 → 1.94 → 1.92 → 1.90
The failure to reclaim 2.06–2.08 after the April rebound suggests the prior recovery attempt was rejected.
The sharp selloff from 2.08 to 1.92 is the dominant recent displacement move.
Current price at 1.94 is attempting to stabilize, but it remains below the failed support/resistance zone near 1.98–2.01.

Structure bias: Bearish unless price reclaims 1.98, then 2.01, with improving volume.

2. Bar-by-Bar Price Action & Order Flow

Major bearish displacement

The large red daily bar from the 2.06–2.08 area down toward 1.94–1.95 is the most important recent bar.

That bar shows:

Wide range.
Heavy volume.
Clean breakdown through nearby support.
Strong close near the lower end of the bar.

This is a professional supply bar / institutional distribution bar, not a normal pullback.

Current consolidation

After the breakdown, price has moved sideways between roughly:

Support: 1.90–1.92
Resistance: 1.94–1.96
Higher resistance: 1.98–2.01

The recent candles are smaller and more overlapping. That shows momentum compression, but not yet bullish reversal.

Most recent bar

The latest candle near 1.94 shows a mild bounce from the 1.90 low, but it is still sitting under short-term supply.

The bounce is constructive only if follow-through appears above 1.95–1.96.

3. Volume-Price Relationship

Bearish volume expansion

The strongest recent volume came on the downside breakdown. That is important because:

High volume + wide red range = strong selling pressure or institutional distribution.
The breakdown volume was materially larger than the surrounding candles.
Price did not immediately reclaim the breakdown zone, which means supply remains active.

Possible absorption near 1.90–1.92

The recent low near 1.90 came with price stabilizing rather than continuing aggressively lower.

This suggests some demand may be appearing, but the evidence is still incomplete.

To confirm absorption, I would want to see:

A higher close above 1.95–1.96
Volume expansion on green candles
Failure of sellers to push price below 1.90

Until then, the 1.90–1.92 zone is support under test, not confirmed accumulation.

4. Institutional Footprints & Trap Behavior

Liquidity grab risk below 1.90

The obvious retail stop zone is likely below 1.90.

A temporary break below 1.90, followed by a fast reclaim above 1.92, would resemble a spring / liquidity grab. That would be more constructive than a slow, heavy-volume breakdown.

Failed breakout / bull trap near 2.08

The rally into 2.08 failed quickly and reversed sharply. That looks like a classic bull trap zone, where late buyers entered the breakout attempt and were immediately trapped by heavy supply.

Supply zone

The most important overhead supply zone is:

1.98–2.01

This area matters because it was prior support, failed, and now likely acts as resistance.

5. Key Levels

Support zones

1.90 — current major low / immediate structural support.
1.92 — recent reaction low and short-term demand area.
1.88–1.89 — next downside risk zone if 1.90 fails.

Resistance zones

1.95–1.96 — immediate short-term resistance.
1.98–2.01 — major reclaim zone and prior support.
2.06–2.08 — stronger supply zone from failed rally.

6. Scenario Planning

Bullish stabilization scenario

Price needs to hold 1.90–1.92, then reclaim 1.96.

A stronger bullish case appears only above 1.98–2.01, especially if volume improves.

Possible upside zones:

First target: 1.98
Second target: 2.01
Extended target: 2.06

Bearish continuation scenario

If price loses 1.90 with high volume and closes below it, the current base likely fails.

That would open risk toward:

1.88–1.89
Then potentially 1.84–1.86

A weak bounce into 1.95–1.98 that gets rejected would also favor continued downside.

7. Risk-Adjusted Setup View

The chart is not yet giving a clean high-conviction long setup. It is trying to stabilize, but the dominant recent evidence is still bearish because the largest recent institutional bar was a sell bar.

For a long-side structure, the cleaner setup would be:

Entry trigger: reclaim above 1.96
Safer confirmation: daily close above 1.98
Stop reference: below 1.90
Targets: 2.01, then 2.06
Approximate risk/reward from 1.96 entry, 1.90 stop, 2.06 target: about 1.7R

For a bearish continuation structure:

Entry trigger: rejection from 1.96–1.98, or breakdown below 1.90
Stop reference: above 1.98 on rejection setup
Targets: 1.90, then 1.88
Better risk/reward only if entry is close to resistance.

Highest-Conviction Observations

Trend structure is bearish: lower highs at 2.23, 2.13, 2.08.
The selloff from 2.08 was institutional-quality distribution, confirmed by wide range and high volume.
1.90–1.92 is the critical demand zone; losing it would likely trigger continuation selling.
1.98–2.01 is the key reclaim zone; below it, rallies are vulnerable to rejection.
Current candles show compression, but not yet confirmed reversal.

Confidence Rating

Confidence: 6.5 / 10

The bearish structure is clear, but the chart is now near support, so the next move depends heavily on whether 1.90 holds or fails.

Key Levels to Watch

Bullish above: 1.96, then 1.98–2.01
Bearish below: 1.90
Major support: 1.90–1.92
Major resistance: 1.98–2.01
Invalidation for bullish bounce: daily close below 1.90

Execution Checklist Before Trading

Has price closed above 1.96 or rejected it?
Is volume expanding on the move, or drying up?
Is 1.90 holding on a closing basis?
Is the setup offering at least 1:2 risk/reward?
Is position size based on the stop level, not emotion?

Buying ME8U because price is attempting to stabilize above the 1.90–1.92 support zone with stops at 1.90 targeting 2.01–2.06 for an estimated 1.2R–2.0R risk-reward; confidence rating: 6.5/10.