Monday, February 23, 2026

DBS - 23 Feb 2026

DBS Group Holdings Ltd (D05) — 1D — SGX

Last Price: ~58.15
Analysis Period: ~Jul 2025 – Feb 2026
Market Regime: Primary Uptrend → Short-Term Pullback Within Trend

1️⃣ Market Structure & Order Flow

Macro Structure (Daily)

Clear sequence of HH/HL since July:

47.32 → 49.21 → 51.45 → 53.24 → 54.80 → 55.59 → 58.80 → 59.25 → 60.00
Higher lows: 49.37 → 50.08 → 51.80 → 52.85 → 57.40

No confirmed bearish CHoCH yet.
The recent drop from 60.00 to ~56.00 did not break 57.40 structurally with follow-through, so macro trend remains intact.

Current phase = bullish trend with corrective pullback.

Micro Structure (Recent)

Climactic push into 60.00 with expansion.
Immediate rejection → sharp red candles.
Followed by rebound toward 58–58.5.

This is typical post-breakout distribution test, not confirmed distribution.

No lower-low structure formed yet.

2️⃣ Volume–Price Relationship (VPR)

Key Observations

A. 60.00 Area

High volume + upper wick = supply absorption zone
Effort (volume) high, result (close above 60) poor
Indicates institutional sell-side activity

B. Pullback to 56–57

Volume contracted on decline
No panic liquidation
No wide-range breakdown candle

This suggests:

Pullback is corrective, not distributive.

C. Rebound from 56

Increasing volume on green candles
Professional response at demand zone

3️⃣ Institutional Footprint

Liquidity Grab

60.00 is obvious psychological level.
Price wicked above prior 59.25 high → stops triggered → reversal.

Classic buy-side liquidity sweep.

Order Block Zones

Demand:

56.00–57.40 (prior breakout base + structural HL)

Supply:

59.25–60.00 (repeated rejection)

Displacement Move

Strong displacement leg from 54 → 58 earlier in trend.
That impulse remains intact.

4️⃣ Accumulation vs Distribution Probability

No lower high + lower low sequence
No expanding volume on breakdown
No prolonged sideways topping structure

Probability Estimate:

Accumulation continuation bias: 65%
Distribution forming: 35%

Distribution would require:

Daily close below 56
Follow-through to 54.50–55
Expanding sell volume

Not present yet.

5️⃣ Psychological & Structural Levels

Major Levels

Level	Significance
60.00	Major psychological + supply
59.25	Prior swing high
58.80	Minor rejection zone
57.40	Structural higher low
56.00	Demand + pullback base
54.60–55	Last consolidation before impulse

6️⃣ Regime Classification

Primary Regime: Trending

Shallow pullbacks
Consistent HH/HL
Volume expansion on upside legs

Current Sub-Regime: Transitional Pullback

Volatility expansion
Wider candle ranges
Testing demand

Not ranging yet.

7️⃣ High-Probability Setup Zones

Bullish Continuation Setup

Entry Zone: 56.00–57.40
Invalidation: Daily close below 55.80
Target 1: 59.25
Target 2: 60.00
Target 3: 62.00 measured move extension

R:R from 56.80 to 60 with stop below 55.80 ≈ 1:2.5

Bearish Reversal Trigger (Conditional)

Only valid if:

Daily close below 56 with expanding volume
Follow-through candle

Then:

Target 54.50
Secondary 52.85

Not active yet.

8️⃣ Effort vs Result Analysis

High effort at 60 → minimal upside → supply present.
Moderate effort on pullback → limited downside → demand absorbing.

Smart money currently appears to be:

Selling into strength, buying the dip.

That is bullish trend behavior, not topping behavior.

9️⃣ Forward-Looking Bias

Current Bias: Moderately Bullish

As long as 56 holds:

Expect grind back toward 59–60.
Break above 60 with volume = continuation phase 2.

Failure below 56:

Transition to range between 54–60.

🔎 3 Highest Conviction Observations

The uptrend structure is intact — no confirmed CHoCH.
Pullback volume does not show panic or distribution.
60.00 is a real institutional supply zone — breakout must be volume-backed.

📌 What To Watch Next

Volume behavior at 59–60 retest
Whether 57.40 holds as structural HL
Range compression before next impulse

Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

Dividend: 4.9%

Saturday, February 21, 2026

OCBC - 20 Feb 2026

📊 Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation Limited (SGX: O39) — 1D

Timeframe: Daily
Period Visible: ~Aug 2025 – 20 Feb 2026
Approx. Bars: ~130–150 sessions
Last Traded Price: 21.72
Recent High: 21.79

🔎 Market Regime Classification: Strong Trending Regime (Late-Stage Impulse / Early Distribution Risk)

Structure is intact bullish (HH/HL sequence), but price is now extended into psychological and structural resistance near 22.00 with subtle volume divergence developing.

1️⃣ Market Structure & Order Flow

Macro Structure (Aug → Oct)

Range between ~16.20–17.20.
Repeated equal lows ~16.50–16.60.
Absorption visible: High-volume down bars with small net progress lower → accumulation.

Structural Shift (Early Nov)

Displacement move from 16.75 → 18.80.
High volume + wide range = professional buying.
Clear BOS (Break of Structure) above 17.15–17.20 prior highs.
This marks transition from range → trend.

Trend Continuation (Nov → Feb)

Sequence:

SH 18.80 → HL 18.00
SH 19.95 → HL ~19.60
SH 20.25 → HL ~20.00
SH 20.93 → HL ~20.60
Current SH 21.79

Clean higher-high/higher-low progression.

Pullbacks are shallow (typically <38% retrace of impulse legs) → confirms institutional bid support.

2️⃣ Volume–Price Relationship (VPR)

Key Observations

A. November Breakout

High Volume + Wide Range = institutional displacement.
Not retail chase — sustained follow-through confirms.

B. Pullbacks (18.80 → 18.00, 19.95 → 19.60)

Volume contraction on retracement.
Classic bullish VPR: low effort on downside.

C. Current 21.50–21.80 Zone

Price making marginal new highs.
Volume not expanding meaningfully.
Slight volume divergence developing.

This suggests:

Momentum decelerating.
Early distribution OR healthy consolidation.

Not confirmed distribution yet — but no longer early trend stage.

3️⃣ Institutional Footprint Recognition

Liquidity Behavior

No aggressive liquidity grab yet above 22.00.
Expect stops clustered above 22 psychological level.

Order Blocks

Strong bullish order block: ~20.80–21.00 (last consolidation before breakout).
Major structural demand: 19.90–20.25 zone.

Fair Value Gaps (FVG)

Large displacement gap left near 16.90–17.40 (unlikely revisit unless macro reversal).
Smaller inefficiencies near 20.20–20.40 remain.

Wyckoff Interpretation

Aug–Oct: Accumulation.
Nov–Jan: Markup Phase.
Current: Late Markup / Possible Distribution Prep.

No upthrust or spring yet.

4️⃣ Bar Pattern Analysis

Recent Bars Near 21.70–21.80

Smaller real bodies.
Upper wicks forming.
Reduced expansion range.

This = momentum compression.

No strong bearish engulfing yet.
No climactic blow-off yet.

Market is coiling under resistance.

5️⃣ Psychological & Structural Levels

Level	Significance
22.00	Major round number + stop liquidity pool
21.79	Current swing high
20.93	Prior breakout level
20.25	Structural HL
19.95	Previous impulse high

Above 22.00 = potential acceleration zone.
Failure at 22.00 = mean reversion toward 20.90.

6️⃣ Risk-Adjusted Setup Mapping

🔵 Bullish Continuation Setup

Trigger: Clean daily close above 22.00 with volume expansion.

Entry: 22.05–22.15
Stop: Below 21.50 (last minor HL)
Target 1: 23.00 (measured move projection)
Target 2: 23.50
R:R ≈ 1:2.5 to 1:3

Confirmation requirement: Volume must expand.

🟠 Pullback Continuation Setup

If rejection occurs at 22:

Ideal demand zone:

20.90–21.00 (breakout retest)
Deeper: 20.20–20.30 (major HL)

Entry only on:

Volume dry-up on pullback
Bullish rejection bar (hammer / engulfing)

🔴 Distribution / Reversal Scenario

Trigger conditions:

High volume wide-range bearish bar
Close below 20.90
Follow-through selling

Then likely rotation toward 19.95 → 19.60.

Currently LOW probability.

7️⃣ Effort vs Result Analysis

Recent sessions:

Moderate volume
Small net price progress

Effort slightly increasing but result flattening → mild absorption OR profit-taking.

Not yet climactic.

8️⃣ Multi-Timeframe Confluence

Daily = strong uptrend.

Weekly (structurally inferred):

Strong bullish impulse since Q4.
Extended but not parabolic.

Timeframe alignment still bullish.

9️⃣ Highest Conviction Observations

Clean institutional markup phase from November.
Pullbacks consistently low volume (strong underlying demand).
No structural breakdown yet.
Price compressing under 22 liquidity.
Early volume divergence warns of short-term consolidation risk.

🔮 Forward-Looking Bias

Primary Bias: Bullish continuation above 22.00.

Secondary Bias: Healthy pullback toward 20.90 before continuation.

Invalidation Level: Sustained close below 20.20.

📌 Key Levels to Watch This Week

22.00 → Break or reject?
21.50 → Minor support
20.90 → Structural pivot
20.25 → Major higher low

Friday, February 13, 2026

SIA - 13 Feb 2026

Singapore Airlines Ltd. (SGX: C6L) — 1D

Date range shown: ~Jun 2025 → 13 Feb 2026
Last traded price (close): 6.96 (H 6.98 / L 6.87)
Visible swing range: Low 6.23 → High 7.63

1) Current Market Regime (MOST IMPORTANT)

Transition → Trend (Bullish)

This is no longer a range.

C6L has shifted from a multi-month base / re-accumulation into a clean bullish markup with:

Strong displacement up
Multiple consecutive wide green bars
Volume expansion
Break above key range ceiling (~6.52)

2) Market Structure & Order Flow

A) The big picture structure

Phase 1: Distribution → Decline (July–Aug)

Price ran to 7.63, then collapsed violently.
That crash candle + follow-through is institutional distribution / exit (not retail).

B) Phase 2: Long base (Aug–Jan)

You can clearly see:

Repeated oscillations between ~6.23–6.52
Many small-bodied candles and overlapping bars
→ Classic absorption + equilibrium

This is where strong hands quietly accumulate while price looks “boring”.

C) Phase 3: Breakout + Markup (Feb)

The move from ~6.35 → 6.96 is displacement (institutional urgency).

3) Volume-Price Relationship (VPR)

Highest conviction volume signal

Volume expansion on the breakout

The breakout bars are not only green and wide-range
They are supported by rising volume
→ This is real demand, not a weak retail pop.

Effort vs Result

During the base, volume often came in but price barely moved
→ absorption (smart money taking supply)
Now, volume produces strong upward result
→ supply has been removed

4) Key BOS / CHoCH Levels

CHoCH (Change of Character)

The first real CHoCH is when price stops making lower lows and holds above ~6.23.

BOS (Break of Structure)

The most important BOS:

Break above ~6.52 (the repeated range cap)
That level was tested and rejected multiple times before — once it breaks with volume, it becomes a major demand zone.

5) Institutional Footprints (SMC / Wyckoff)

Wyckoff read (clean)

Accumulation → Markup

6.23 = selling climax / spring zone
6.52 = range resistance (creek)
Feb move = jump across the creek
Next step should be: back-up to the creek (retest)

This is textbook.

6) Bar-by-Bar: What the candles are saying NOW

The last sequence (most relevant)

A cluster of strong green candles with minimal pullback
Closing near highs repeatedly
→ trend bars, not churn

But you are also now reaching an area where:

Price is approaching older supply zones
The move is getting extended short-term

So probability increases for:

a pause
a pullback
or a high-volume churn bar (profit-taking)

7) Critical Price Levels (Actionable)

A) Immediate resistance zones (targets)

7.00 round number
- Psychological + profit-taking level
7.18
- Previous reference level visible on chart
7.40–7.63
- Major supply zone from prior distribution top

B) Key support zones (where buyers should defend)

6.52 (MOST IMPORTANT)
- Prior range ceiling
- If this fails, breakout is suspect
6.40
- Mid-range pivot area (multiple touches)
6.23
- Major base low (line in the sand)

8) High-Probability Setups (Risk-Adjusted)

Setup A — Best R:R (professional entry)

Buy the retest of 6.52

Entry zone: 6.52–6.60
Stop: below 6.40
Targets: 7.18 → 7.40 → 7.63

This is the cleanest “institutional style” trade.

Setup B — Momentum continuation

Buy breakout continuation above 7.00

Only valid if:

Break above 7.00 holds
Volume stays elevated
No immediate reversal bar

Downside: worse R:R, higher trap risk.

9) Retail Trap Risk (What to watch)

The biggest trap pattern from here is:

Upthrust above 7.00

Price spikes above 7.00 intraday
Closes back below 7.00
Volume high
→ This would be a bull trap / supply hit

If you see that, don’t chase.

10) Forward Bias + What Matters Next

Bias: Bullish while above 6.52

This is now a trend continuation market.

Bull case (most likely)

Consolidation / pullback to 6.52–6.60
Then continuation toward 7.18

Bear case (needs confirmation)

Breakdown below 6.52
Follow-through below 6.40
→ Then it becomes a failed breakout and returns to range.

Final “Elite” Summary (3–5 conviction points)

6.52 was the range ceiling for months — now broken with volume.
The Feb rally is displacement, not a weak drift.
The base was absorption, meaning supply has been removed.
7.00 and 7.18 are the next profit-taking / supply reaction zones.
Best trade is not chasing — it’s waiting for a retest of 6.52.

Thursday, February 12, 2026

Guocoland - 12 Feb 2026

Chart Setup & Context

Stock: GuocoLand Limited (SGX: F17)
Timeframe: 1D (Daily)
Date range shown: ~Jun 2025 → 12 Feb 2026
Last traded price (close): 2.82
Day range: H 2.83 / L 2.78
Day change: +0.03 (+1.08%)
Visible swing range (chart): Low ~1.41 → High ~2.85

0) Market Regime Classification (MOST IMPORTANT)

Strong trending regime (markup) with a late-stage acceleration.

This is not a range anymore. It’s a clean institutional-style uptrend that recently entered a momentum extension phase (risk of pullback increases).

1) 3–5 Highest Conviction Observations

1) Structure is textbook HH/HL since June

You can see clean Higher Highs (HH) and Higher Lows (HL) across the whole chart.
No real structural breakdowns — pullbacks are shallow and controlled.

Interpretation: strong hands are supporting dips, not letting price retrace deeply.

2) Major BOS (Break of Structure) above ~2.18–2.20

The zone around 2.18 was a key swing high (marked on the chart).
Once price pushed through and held above it, it confirmed trend continuation.

Interpretation: That was the “permission” point where institutions typically add size.

3) Clear accumulation / base-building around ~1.95–2.05

After the Nov drop (from ~2.18 down to ~1.97), price went into a long sideways grind around ~2.00.
Volume during this period is mostly moderate, with no heavy sell follow-through.

Interpretation: This looks like re-accumulation, not distribution.

4) January → February = displacement + momentum ramp

The move from ~2.20 to ~2.85 is steep and clean.
This is classic displacement: strong directional move with minimal retracement.

Interpretation: Late-stage buyers are chasing; trend is strong but now more fragile.

5) Current area = breakout continuation but also “profit-taking magnet”

Price is sitting at:

2.82 close
2.85 recent high

This is the kind of area where:

trend followers keep buying
but smart money starts scaling out into strength

2) Market Structure & Order Flow (BOS / CHoCH)

Key swing map (from the chart markings)

1.43 → 1.77 (first major impulse)
1.77 → 2.10 (trend continuation)
2.10 → 2.18 (final push before shakeout)
2.18 → 1.97 (sharp pullback / liquidity sweep)
1.97 → 2.13 → 2.20+ (reclaim + base breakout)
2.20 → 2.85 (accelerated markup)

BOS events

BOS #1: reclaim and hold above ~1.77
BOS #2: reclaim and hold above ~2.10
BOS #3: breakout and hold above ~2.18–2.20
BOS #4: breakout and hold above ~2.60

CHoCH warning level (the one that matters now)

If price loses ~2.60 and fails to reclaim quickly, that’s the first meaningful change-of-character risk.

3) Advanced Volume-Price Relationship (VPR)

What volume is saying

The biggest volume cluster is during the breakout / run-up into the 2.6–2.8 area.
Recent candles near the highs show some selling bars but not a collapse.

Effort vs Result

If you see high volume but price stalls around 2.80–2.85 → that’s absorption / distribution risk.
If volume stays strong and price keeps printing HH with tight closes → continuation.

Right now: still bullish, but the “easy money” part of the trend is likely done.

4) Institutional Footprints (SMC + Wyckoff overlay)

Likely Wyckoff read

Jun → Oct: Markup
Nov drop to 1.97: Shakeout / liquidity grab
Nov → Dec around 2.00: Re-accumulation
Jan → Feb: Markup phase 2 (accelerated)

Liquidity dynamics

Retail stop zones:
- under 2.60
- under 2.40
- under 2.20
Institutions love sweeping these levels before continuation.

5) Bar Pattern Notes (what matters most here)

The current candles near 2.85

You’re seeing push → small pullback → push behavior.
That’s bullish, but it’s also how blow-off tops start.

Key bar to watch next:

A wide red bar on high volume closing near low = first major warning.
A failed breakout above 2.85 with heavy volume = classic bull trap.

6) Psychological & Structural Levels (Actionable)

Immediate resistance (supply zones)

2.85 (current high / obvious liquidity)
2.90 (round number magnet)
3.00 (major psychological level)

Nearest support (demand zones)

2.70–2.72 (micro base + pullback shelf)
2.60 (major breakout level, first “must hold”)
2.40 (last consolidation before acceleration)
2.18–2.20 (macro breakout BOS level)

7) Risk-Adjusted Setup Identification (Entry / Stop / Targets)

Setup A — “Pullback buy” (highest quality)

Entry zone: 2.60–2.70
Stop: below 2.55 (structure break)
Targets: 2.85 → 2.95 → 3.00

This is the professional setup.

Setup B — “Breakout continuation” (higher risk)

Entry: clean breakout and close above 2.85
Stop: below 2.78
Targets: 2.95 / 3.00

Risk: this is where retail gets trapped if it fails.

Setup C — “Trend failure short / exit trigger” (not recommended unless advanced)

If price loses 2.60 and fails to reclaim → high probability deeper pullback to 2.40.

8) Forward-Looking Bias + Key Levels to Watch

Bias

Bullish continuation, but now in a late-stage extension where pullbacks become sharper.

Key decision levels

2.85 = breakout continuation / trap line
2.60 = trend integrity line
2.40 = “if we reach here, momentum is gone” line

Final Professional Take

This is a strong institutional uptrend with a clean re-accumulation in Nov/Dec and a powerful displacement leg in Jan/Feb.
At 2.82–2.85, you’re no longer in “value zone” — you’re in the crowded momentum zone, where risk increases sharply.

Wednesday, February 11, 2026

Keppel Corp - 11 Feb 2026

Keppel Ltd. (SGX: BN4) — 1D (Daily)

Date range shown: ~Jun 2025 → 11 Feb 2026
Last traded price (close): 12.38
Day range: O 12.50 / H 12.50 / L 12.30 / C 12.38
Trend: Strong uptrend (clean HH/HL sequence)

1) Current Market Regime (most important)

Late-stage trending regime → “Markup acceleration / near-climax” conditions.

You have:

A long, orderly uptrend (June → Jan)
Followed by a sudden vertical expansion leg into 12.50
With volume expansion into the breakout

This is bullish, but late-stage: the risk is no longer “will it break out”, but “how violent will the pullback be after the breakout.”

2) Structure: Swing Highs/Lows, BOS, CHoCH

Primary structure (June → Feb)

Clear higher highs + higher lows.
Key visible swing levels marked on chart:
- ~8.84 (Aug swing)
- ~10.38 (Nov swing high)
- ~9.81 / 9.98 (mid-trend pullback lows)

BOS (Break of Structure)

BOS above 10.38 was the big structural confirmation.
After that, price went into a steady grind (low volatility) then exploded.

CHoCH risk (Change of Character)

A CHoCH would show up if:

Price fails to hold above 11.80–12.00
Then breaks down below the last higher low (likely around 11.20–11.40 zone)

Right now, no CHoCH yet — but you are in the zone where it can happen quickly.

3) Volume-Price Relationship (VPR) — Institutional Read

What stands out

The final leg into 12.50 is displacement (strong directional push).
Volume expanded on the breakout leg (effort confirms demand).

But there’s a warning

The very top bar shows:

A push into 12.50
Followed by a close at 12.38 (below high)

This is not bearish by itself, but it is consistent with:

profit-taking into breakout liquidity
early supply appearing at a psychological + structural extreme

If the next 2–5 bars show:

high volume + narrow real bodies
repeated failure to close above 12.50
That becomes classic distribution-at-the-high behavior.

4) Institutional Footprints (SMC / Wyckoff logic)

Liquidity zones

12.50 is an obvious liquidity magnet:
- round-ish level
- new high
- breakout traders pile in
- shorts cover

That makes it a perfect area for smart money to sell into.

Likely order blocks

The last red candle before the vertical pump (around 11.0–11.2) is a bullish order block.
If price pulls back, that’s where “real buyers” usually defend.

Fair Value Gap (FVG)

The vertical move likely created inefficiency between:

~11.50 → 12.00+
Meaning price often revisits that area later to “rebalance.”

5) Bar-by-Bar Read (last ~15–25 bars)

Phase A: Tight compression (pre-breakout)

Small-bodied candles
Controlled grind
Low volatility
This is professional accumulation / controlled markup, not retail mania.

Phase B: Breakout ignition

Wide-range green candles
Follow-through
This is institutional displacement.

Phase C: First rejection signal

Push to 12.50 then close at 12.38
This is the first bar that says:
“Supply is now willing to show up.”

Not a reversal yet — but the tone changed.

6) Key Levels (actionable)

Immediate resistance (supply)

12.50 (current swing high, breakout cap)

Immediate support (must-hold to stay bullish)

12.00 (psych + breakout area)
11.60–11.80 (likely first demand zone / retest area)

Deeper institutional support (high-probability defense)

11.00–11.20 (origin zone of the displacement leg)

7) High-Probability Setups (Risk-Adjusted)

Setup 1 — “Breakout acceptance” (momentum continuation)

Bull case condition:

Close above 12.50
Followed by another close holding above it (no instant dump)

Risk: high (late-stage breakout)
Reward: can run hard, but often short-lived

Setup 2 — “Retest buy” (highest quality)

Best institutional-style entry:

Pullback into 12.00 → 11.60
Volume dries up on pullback
Then a strong reversal bar (demand returns)

This is the cleanest risk-defined trade.

Setup 3 — “Exhaustion fade” (advanced)

If you see:

multiple wide green bars
then a huge volume bar with a weak close
then breakdown below 12.00

That becomes a distribution top setup.
(But you need confirmation — don’t front-run it.)

8) Forward Bias + What to Watch Next

Bias (next 1–3 weeks)

Bullish but late-stage.
The trend is still intact, but probability of a sharp pullback is rising.

3 highest-conviction things to watch

Does 12.50 get accepted or rejected repeatedly?
Does 12.00 hold on the first real pullback?
Does volume dry up on pullback (bullish) or expand (bearish)?

Final Institutional Summary

Keppel is in a strong markup trend, and the breakout leg into 12.50 is real demand, not random noise. However, the move is now extended, and the first bar showing selling into the high has appeared. The best edge is no longer chasing; it’s waiting for a controlled retest into 12.00/11.60 with volume contraction.

Tuesday, February 10, 2026

Genting SP - 10 Feb 2026

Genting Singapore (SGX: G13) — Daily (1D)

Date range shown: ~Jun 2025 → 10 Feb 2026
Last traded price: 0.750
Last bar: O 0.750 / H 0.750 / L 0.745 / C 0.750
Volume (latest shown): ~12.33M

1) Market Regime (MOST IMPORTANT)

Regime: Range → Early Uptrend Transition

This is not a clean trend yet, but it’s no longer “dead range” either.

You have:

A long, messy range for months
A sharp institutional impulse (Nov spike to ~0.800)
A controlled pullback
A tight base around 0.720–0.740
And now a grind-up into 0.750

That’s classic re-accumulation after a markup attempt.

2) Market Structure & Key Swings (SH/SL)

Major swing points visible:

Range low support: ~0.690
Key structural low: ~0.710
Range support shelf: ~0.720
Mid-range pivot: ~0.740
Range ceiling / supply: ~0.770
Major swing high: 0.800

Structure read:

From Sep → Oct: lower highs into 0.710 (weakness)
Nov: sudden expansion up to 0.800 (displacement)
Dec: retrace and base around 0.710–0.720
Jan → Feb: higher lows + slow push into 0.750

So the structure is improving, but price is still inside the bigger range.

3) Volume-Price Relationship (Effort vs Result)

The most important bar on the chart:

Late Nov / early Dec: huge volume spike on a down bar
That is not normal retail selling.

That’s typically:

Supply being dumped into, AND/OR
Absorption (strong hands taking the other side)

But what matters is what happened after:

Price did NOT collapse
Instead, it stabilized and built a base

That leans toward absorption > distribution.

Recent volume condition:

The current grind up to 0.750 is on relatively quiet / average volume.

That is typical of:

Mark-up driven by lack of supply, not aggressive chasing

This is healthy, as long as the breakout volume appears later.

4) Institutional Footprints (Wyckoff / SMC lens)

Phase interpretation (practical, not academic):

Jun–Oct: Accumulation range (messy, but supported)
Nov: Markup attempt (0.720 → 0.800)
Dec: Reaction + test back into 0.710–0.720
Jan–Feb: Re-accumulation (tight range + rising floor)

Key behavior:

The 0.710–0.720 zone acts like a defended demand zone
The repeated “small bodies” around 0.720–0.740 = absorption + compression
Now price is pushing back into the upper range

5) Bar-by-Bar Character (micro read)

What the candles are saying right now:

Many small-range candles with higher closes = controlled accumulation
No big bearish wide-range bar during the recent rise = no heavy supply yet
The current push into 0.750 is orderly, not emotional

This is exactly how price behaves before a breakout attempt.

6) Critical Levels (Actionable)

Immediate resistance (must clear):

0.750 (current battle)
0.770 (range ceiling + repeated pivot high)

Major resistance / target zone:

0.800 (swing high)

Support levels:

0.740 (first “breakout retest” support)
0.720 (base floor / key demand)
0.710 (structural “line in the sand”)

7) Highest Conviction Observations (3–5)

0.710–0.720 is a defended institutional zone (multiple successful holds).
The Nov move to 0.800 was real displacement, not random noise.
The pullback did not destroy structure, meaning supply was not overwhelming.
The current price action is compression + rising floor, which is breakout-prep behavior.
A breakout above 0.770 would likely trigger range expansion quickly.

8) Setup Map (Risk-Adjusted)

Setup A — Conservative breakout trade

Trigger: Daily close above 0.770
Stop: Below 0.750 (or more conservative below 0.740)
Targets:
- T1: 0.800
- T2: extension beyond 0.800 (not visible yet, but possible)

This is the clean “range breakout” play.

Setup B — Pullback entry (better R:R)

Entry zone: 0.740–0.720 on a pullback
Stop: Below 0.710
Targets: 0.770 then 0.800

This is higher quality because:

risk is defined
you’re buying into demand, not into supply

9) Retail Trap Risks (what to watch)

The most likely trap is:

Price spikes above 0.770
Volume is weak
Then it snaps back into the range

That would be a classic upthrust / bull trap.

So: 0.770 breakout MUST show volume expansion + follow-through.

10) Forward Bias & What Matters Next

Bias: Moderately bullish (conditional)

Bullish if price holds above 0.740
Strong bullish if it breaks 0.770 cleanly
Neutral-to-bearish if it loses 0.720
Bearish if it loses 0.710 (structure breaks)

The “tell” bar:

Watch the first attempt into 0.770:

If volume expands + close is strong → real breakout
If volume is low + long upper wick → supply still heavy