1. Chart Setup & Context
Stock: Yangzijiang Financial Holding Ltd
Ticker: SGX: YF8
Timeframe: Daily (1D)
Analysis Period: Apr 2025 → Dec 2025
Approx. Bars: ~170 daily bars
Last Traded Price: 0.440
2. Market Regime Classification (Lead With This)
Current Regime:
👉 Transition → Early Downtrend (Distribution Resolution Phase)
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Prior strong uptrend has clearly ended
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Market has shifted into lower highs + expanding downside follow-through
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Volume behavior suggests distribution, not accumulation
3. Market Structure & Order Flow Analysis
A. Primary Structure Evolution
Phase 1 – Accumulation Base (Apr–Jun)
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Range: 0.310 – 0.345
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Overlapping bars, muted ranges
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Volume contraction → institutional absorption
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No follow-through on downside attempts → strong hands building inventory
Phase 2 – Mark-Up / Displacement (Jul–Sep)
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Clean BOS above ~0.345
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Series of HH + HL
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Wide-range bullish bars with expanding volume
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Textbook institutional displacement leg
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Peak high: ~0.560
Phase 3 – Distribution (Sep–Oct)
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Failure to extend above 0.560
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Repeated upper-wick rejections
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High volume but diminishing upside progress
→ Effort > Result = Distribution
Phase 4 – Structural Breakdown (Oct–Nov)
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CHoCH confirmed below ~0.500
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Subsequent BOS down
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Rallies fail earlier → sellers in control
B. Current Structure (Most Important)
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Lower High sequence: 0.56 → 0.53 → 0.50 → 0.48
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Lower Low progression: 0.48 → 0.46 → 0.44
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Trend bias now bearish until proven otherwise
4. Advanced Volume-Price Relationship (VPR)
Key Observations
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High volume + small real bodies near 0.52–0.56
→ Institutional distribution zone -
Breakdown below 0.48 came with volume expansion
→ Valid bearish continuation -
Recent down bars show consistent volume, not drying up
→ Sellers not finished
⚠️ No meaningful volume climax yet on the downside → downtrend incomplete
5. Institutional Footprint Recognition
A. Liquidity Events
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Sharp downside wick near ~0.415
→ Stop-run + short-term liquidity grab -
Follow-through weak → reactive bounce only, not accumulation
B. Order Blocks
-
Bearish Order Block:
0.515 – 0.535
(Last bullish candles before strong sell-off)
→ Major supply zone
C. Fair Value Gaps (FVG)
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Inefficiency left between 0.47 – 0.49
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Price respected upper boundary → bearish acceptance
6. Bar Pattern Recognition
Reversal / Exhaustion Signals
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Multiple shooting-star / long-upper-wick bars near 0.56
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No bullish engulfing on recent pullbacks
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Down bars closing near lows → bearish control
Continuation Behavior
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Pullbacks are shallow and brief
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No multi-bar basing → no re-accumulation
7. Psychological & Key Levels
| Level | Significance |
|---|---|
| 0.560 | Major distribution high |
| 0.520–0.535 | Institutional supply |
| 0.480 | Former support → resistance |
| 0.440 | Current decision level |
| 0.415 | Liquidity sweep low |
| 0.400 / 0.385 | Next structural downside targets |
8. High-Conviction Observations (Top 5)
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Trend has flipped from mark-up to markdown (CHoCH confirmed)
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Distribution clearly occurred between 0.52–0.56
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Current decline shows acceptance, not panic selling
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No bullish volume divergence yet
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Bounces are corrective, not impulsive
9. Risk-Adjusted Trade Framework (Technical Only)
A. Short / Sell-Rally Bias (Preferred)
Sell Zone:
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0.480 – 0.500 (prior structure + FVG)
Invalidation:
-
Daily close above 0.515
Targets:
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TP1: 0.415
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TP2: 0.385–0.400
R:R: ~1:2.5 to 1:3
B. Long Setup (ONLY IF Conditions Met)
Requires:
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Climactic sell volume
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Bullish engulfing or spring with follow-through
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Holding above 0.415
Without these → no long edge
10. Multi-Timeframe Alignment (Daily → Weekly)
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Daily structure aligns with weekly distribution
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No higher-timeframe support until ~0.38–0.40
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Trend alignment favors patience, not anticipation
11. Forward-Looking Bias & Key Levels to Watch
Bias:
👉 Bearish to Neutral, until proven otherwise
What would change the bias:
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Strong bullish displacement above 0.500
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Volume-confirmed reclaim of 0.515
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Formation of higher low + BOS up
Until then:
This is a sell-rally / capital-preservation environment, not accumulation.
Bottom Line (Institutional Lens)
YF8 has completed a full accumulation → mark-up → distribution cycle.
The market is now resolving downward, with no structural or volume evidence of renewed accumulation yet.
Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.
Dividend: 7.95%
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