Ascendas Reit - 22 May 25

🔎 Overview

• Stock: CapitaLand Ascendas REIT

• Exchange: SGX

• Ticker: A17U

• Timeframe: Daily

• Last Close: 2.59 SGD

• Volume: Slightly below average, with notable spikes at key turns

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1. 📈 Trend Analysis

Primary Trend (Medium Term):

• Trend: Sideways to mild downtrend

• From the peak at 2.99 (late Sept 2024), the stock entered a clear downtrend into late December 2024.

• Recent structure: Lower highs and lower lows into April 2025, bottoming at 2.40 SGD before recovering.

Recent Price Structure:

• Lower high at 2.72 (May 2025) following 2.75 (April) – suggests weakening bullish momentum.

• Support zone retested twice at 2.49, forming a double bottom, but rally stalled at 2.72.

• Current price action suggests a bearish drift within a larger sideways consolidation.

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2. 🔍 Key Price Action Signals (Bar-by-Bar Analysis)

Significant Bars & Volume Observations:

• Late September to October 2024: Heavy selloff from 2.99 to ~2.55, accompanied by multiple large red trend bars with expanding volume – clear distribution phase.

• November 2024: Pin bar at 2.51 with a tail rejection and higher volume indicates temporary demand.

• Late March 2025: Sharp reversal from 2.40 with a long wick (buying tail) – strong pin bar, demand confirmation.

• Early April 2025: 3 bullish wide-range bars on increasing volume, broke above short-term resistance at 2.54, then tested and rallied to 2.75.

• Late April - May 2025: Volume spikes during rejection at 2.72, followed by 5 consecutive red bars (many with small real bodies and long wicks) – showing distribution and hesitation.

Key Reversal Candles Identified:

• Pin bar at 2.40 (March 2025) – strong demand, bottom signal.

• Bearish engulfing at 2.75 (April 2025) – formed after recovery rally, leads to decline.

• Doji cluster (May 15-20, 2025) – indecision under 2.59, hinting at potential breakdown.

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3. 🔄 Support & Resistance Levels

Key Resistance:

• 2.99 – Major resistance (2024 high)

• 2.80 / 2.75 / 2.72 – Intermediate resistance levels from recent swing highs

• 2.66 – Important resistance capped multiple rallies (Feb, March 2025)

Key Support:

• 2.40 – Strong recent support (double bottom)

• 2.49 – Short-term support zone, bounce observed twice

• 2.53-2.55 – Minor support level from Feb consolidation

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4. 📊 Breakout & Pullback Analysis

• Breakouts:

  • April rally (2.40 → 2.75) was a legitimate breakout from a base, backed by volume.

  • However, breakout failed to establish new highs, and price reversed at 2.75/2.72, creating a bull trap.

• Pullbacks:

  • Recent pullback from 2.72 → 2.59 shows orderly retracement but volume is not confirming aggressive buying yet.

• Currently: Sitting at a potential pivot – either forming a higher low (bullish continuation) or lower high breakdown (trend continuation).

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5. 🧭 Market Context & Trading Bias

Market Type: Ranging with bearish undertone

• Price is stuck between 2.40 and 2.75, with recent weakness at the upper range.

• Trend bars are smaller, overlapping – indicating loss of conviction and rising indecision.

Trader Psychology:

• Bearish sentiment near highs (2.72–2.75) → profit-taking, supply pressure

• Cautious optimism near 2.40 → accumulation interest

• Current structure suggests short-term indecision; market awaits fresh catalysts.

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6. 💼 Supply, Demand & Liquidity Analysis

• High volume selling spikes during Oct–Dec 2024 marked supply zones.

• April 2025 volume surge at 2.40 → marked demand inflow.

• Current volume on recent decline is not heavy, implying no panic selling – suggesting pullback, not breakdown (yet).

Trade Setups Identified:

• Pullback Buy Opportunity if price holds above 2.55–2.53 zone with bullish bar and volume confirmation.

• Breakdown Play if 2.49 fails with a strong red bar on volume – potential return to test 2.40.

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7. 🛡️ Risk Management Strategy

✅ Bullish Scenario (Pullback Buy):

• Entry: 2.58–2.60 on bullish confirmation bar

• Stop Loss: Below 2.49

• Target 1: 2.72

• Target 2: 2.80

• Risk:Reward: ~1:2.5

❌ Bearish Scenario (Breakdown Play):

• Entry: Below 2.49 with strong bearish candle

• Stop Loss: Above 2.59

• Target: 2.40, then potentially 2.30

• Risk:Reward: ~1:2

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8. 📰 Company News (Past 3 Months)

🗓️ 1. CapitaLand Ascendas REIT Q1 2025 Earnings Report – May 3, 2025

• Source: SGX

• Summary: Q1 DPU (Distribution per Unit) slightly declined YoY due to higher interest expenses and some lease expiries. However, portfolio occupancy remained strong at 94.5%.

• Sentiment: Neutral to Mildly Negative

🗓️ 2. Strategic Asset Divestment Announcement – April 17, 2025

• Source: Business Times

• Summary: The REIT announced the sale of two older industrial assets in Singapore, aligning with its capital recycling strategy.

• Sentiment: Neutral to Positive

🗓️ 3. Fitch Maintains 'A-' Credit Rating – March 28, 2025

• Summary: Credit outlook stable, citing prudent capital management and strong occupancy rates.

• Sentiment: Positive

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✅ Summary & Final Technical Outlook

📌 Trend: Range-bound with mild bearish bias

📌 Support Zone: 2.49–2.53

📌 Resistance Zone: 2.72–2.75

📌 Volume: Quietly tapering, signaling indecision

📌 Bias: Neutral-short term, cautiously bullish medium-term if 2.49 holds

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⏳ Final Call by Timeframe:

• Short-Term (1–2 weeks): Neutral to slightly bearish → likely retest of 2.49 unless strong bull bar appears

• Medium-Term (1–3 months): Cautiously bullish if 2.49 holds; possible breakout above 2.72

• Long-Term (3–12 months): Neutral to bullish, assuming macro environment and REIT fundamentals remain stable

Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

Dividend:   5.78%

Ascendas Reit - 16 May 25

Technical Analysis of CapitaLand Ascendas REIT (SGX: A17U)
Timeframe: Daily (1D) chart
Date of last bar: Friday, 16 May 2025
Current Price: SGD 2.63
Previous Close: SGD 2.59
Change: +1.54%

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🔍 1. Trend Analysis

🔹 Market Phase: Range-Bound with Slight Bullish Bias

• The chart shows a multi-month downtrend from a peak at SGD 2.99 (Sep 2024) to a low of SGD 2.40 (Mar 2025).

• From March 2025, the price has rebounded forming higher lows (2.40 → 2.49 → 2.49 again) and higher highs (2.66 → 2.75)—indicative of a developing bullish structure, albeit still within a broad consolidation zone.

• Trend Weakness Indicators:

  • Price is stalling around SGD 2.63–2.66, a prior resistance zone.

  • Mixed bar sizes and overlapping candles hint at low conviction from bulls.

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📌 2. Key Price Action Signals (Bar-by-Bar Highlights)

🔸 Volume Spikes & Corresponding Candles:

• 16 Apr 2025: Strong green bar with massive volume spike and long lower wick. Open: 2.45 → Close: 2.63. This indicates demand absorption and likely institutional buying.

• 22 Apr 2025: Continuation green bar, high volume, closes near the top. Bullish confirmation and follow-through.

• 9 May 2025: Tall bearish bar after a short-term high at 2.71. This bar reversed the bullish momentum and started the most recent pullback.

🔸 Gap Downs:

• 28 Mar 2025: Small gap down from 2.49 to 2.40, forming a bullish exhaustion wick. The large lower shadow and immediate reversal suggest false breakdown, further confirmed by strong bounce.

🔸 Pin Bars & Reversals:

• 15 Apr 2025: Pin bar with long lower tail at 2.45, directly off the recent support (2.49). Strong reversal signal, later confirmed by bullish engulfing and volume spike.

• 14 Feb 2025: Pin bar rejecting 2.66. Sign of selling pressure and false breakout above resistance.

🔸 Inside Bars/Doji:

• Multiple dojis and small inside bars around early February to March 2025 suggest indecision before the sharp bounce in April.

• Recent 4-day cluster (13–16 May) is forming a mini consolidation at the resistance zone. Watch for breakout.

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🧱 3. Support & Resistance Levels

🔹 Support Zones:

• 2.40: Key swing low and demand zone (March 2025).

• 2.49: Minor support tested twice (Feb & Mar 2025).

• 2.55–2.58: Mid-range support from Dec–Feb congestion.

🔹 Resistance Zones:

• 2.66–2.75: Strong historical supply zone. Triple-tested (Dec, Feb, Apr).

• 2.80: Minor resistance from Aug 2024.

• 2.99–3.00: Major top and long-term resistance from Sept 2024.

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🔄 4. Breakout & Pullback Analysis

• April Breakout: Strong breakout from 2.49 on 15–16 April. Volume-confirmed, sharp move to 2.75.

• Pullback: Ongoing pullback from 2.75 looks orderly, with decreasing volume and smaller bars—a healthy retracement within a new up leg.

• Current price hovering above rising support and nearing 2.66 breakout threshold.

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🧠 5. Market Context & Trading Bias

• Bias: Cautiously Bullish

• Price structure is transitioning from range to uptrend, with increasing bullish follow-through.

• Recent pullbacks are shallow and finding support, suggesting buyers are stepping in early.

• However, hesitation at 2.66 hints at possible liquidity trap—a breakout needs strong volume.

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⚖️ 6. Supply, Demand & Liquidity Analysis

• Demand Zone: 2.40–2.49: Buyers clearly defended this zone.

• Supply Zone: 2.66–2.75: Historical selling pressure; requires strong volume to break through.

• Liquidity Trap Possibility: If price breaks above 2.66 without follow-through, it may trigger stop hunts and reverse quickly.

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📈 7. Risk Management Strategy

🟢 Potential Setup: Pullback Buy

• Entry: Around 2.60–2.62, near short-term pullback low.

• Stop-Loss: Below 2.55 (recent consolidation low).

• Target 1: 2.75 (recent high)

• Target 2: 2.80–2.99 (major resistance)

• Reward/Risk Ratio: ~2.5:1 (favorable)

🟠 Alternate Setup: Breakout Play

• Entry: On clean break above 2.66 with volume

• Stop-Loss: 2.58 (last swing low)

• Target: 2.80, then 2.99

• Volume confirmation required

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📰 8. Recent Company News (Last 3 Months)

1. [29 April 2025 - The Business Times]

• Headline: Ascendas REIT Reports Q1 FY25 Results; Portfolio Occupancy at 94.5%

• Summary: Revenue rose by 3.4% YoY, with DPU (distribution per unit) stable. Focus remains on asset enhancements in Singapore and Australia.

2. [25 March 2025 - Reuters]

• Headline: Ascendas REIT Completes Acquisition of Data Centre in Sydney

• Summary: REIT acquired a AUD 150 million data center asset, enhancing recurring income. This supports long-term earnings stability.

3. [15 April 2025 - SGX News]

• Headline: CapitaLand Ascendas Declares Distribution of SGD 0.038 Per Unit

• Summary: Positive sentiment as the yield remains attractive. Ex-dividend date was 17 April, which coincides with post-dividend buying pressure on chart.

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✅ Final Summary & Forecast

🔎 Key Findings:

• Structural shift from range to uptrend, confirmed by higher lows and higher highs.

• Strong buyer interest near 2.49–2.55.

• Major resistance near 2.66–2.75 still needs to be decisively breached.

• Volume spikes and bullish reversal signals in mid-April indicate institutional accumulation.

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📊 Bull & Bear Cases

🐂 Bull Case:

• Break above 2.66 with volume targets 2.80–2.99.

• Sustained higher lows and earnings stability support long-term upside.

• Yield attractiveness may attract inflows from conservative investors.

🐻 Bear Case:

• Failure to hold 2.60 may invite retest of 2.55 or 2.49.

• Weak breakout with low volume may trap late buyers and reverse.

• Macro REIT sector headwinds (interest rate hikes or economic weakness) could pressure valuation.

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🧭 Final Call

Timeframe	Bias	Outlook
Short Term	Neutral-Bullish	Await breakout above 2.66
Medium Term	Bullish	Higher lows and post-dividend strength
Long Term	Cautiously Bullish	Fundamentals stable; key resistance above

Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

Dividend:  5.70%

Ascendas Reit - 07 Feb 2025

Price Action Analysis for CapLand Ascendas REIT (A17U) – 1D Chart

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1. Trend Analysis

• Primary Trend: The stock is currently in a downtrend, evident from the series of lower highs and lower lows since mid-2023.
• Recent Price Action:
  • The most recent lower high: ~$2.66 (marked in red)
  • The most recent lower low: ~$2.51 (marked in green)
  • The price is now attempting to break above $2.64, possibly forming a reversal attempt.
• Trend Weakening Signs:
  • There are multiple failed breakout attempts (e.g., $2.80, $2.82, and $2.99).
  • Recent price action shows overlapping bars and smaller candles, indicating indecision.

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2. Key Price Action Signals

• Strong Trend Bars:
  • The last bullish candle (Feb 7, 2025) shows a strong move above $2.60 with decent follow-through.
  • However, previous breakouts around $2.66–$2.69 were rejected, signaling potential resistance.
• Reversal Patterns:
  • Double bottom formation around $2.51–$2.53 (Nov 2024 & Jan 2025) suggests possible support.
  • If price moves past $2.66 resistance, it could confirm a short-term bullish reversal.
• Inside Bars:
  • Multiple consolidation areas (e.g., Nov 2023 and Jan 2024), indicating supply/demand imbalance.
• Doji Candles:
  • Found near $2.55 support zone, signaling market indecision.

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3. Support & Resistance Levels

• Major Resistance Zones:
  • $2.66 – $2.69: Previously rejected levels.
  • $2.80 – $2.83: Previous supply zone where sellers dominated.
  • $2.99: A psychological resistance level where price reversed sharply.
• Major Support Zones:
  • $2.51 – $2.53: Strong historical support.
  • $2.55: A recent pivot level showing buyers stepping in.

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4. Breakout & Pullback Analysis

• Breakout Strength:
  • The current push above $2.60 is relatively strong, but needs confirmation above $2.66 for bullish continuation.
• Pullback Behavior:
  • The previous pullbacks have been deep, indicating a weak bullish momentum.
  • If price retests $2.55 and holds, it may confirm a higher low.

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5. Market Context & Trading Bias

• Current Market Phase: The stock is transitioning from a downtrend to a possible range-bound phase, with a potential short-term reversal.
• Trader Psychology:
  • Buyers are attempting to take control around $2.55–$2.60.
  • Sellers are still active around $2.66.
  • If bulls fail to push past $2.66, expect further downside towards $2.55.
• Potential Trade Ideas:
  • Bullish bias: Wait for a confirmed breakout above $2.66 with strong volume.
  • Bearish bias: Look for rejection at $2.66 for a potential short trade targeting $2.55.

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Final Thoughts:

• The market is at a critical level, deciding between a bullish breakout or a range-bound continuation.
• Watch for volume confirmation at key resistance levels.
• A move above $2.66 could signal a bullish reversal, while rejection could lead to another test of $2.55–$2.51.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Trading involves significant risk of loss and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Dividend  5.78%

Ascendas Reit - 09 Oct 2024

What does this stock chart says?

Price in technical correction.  2.80 is a good support price.  

P/E Ratio = 81.63 

Dividend Yield = 5,34%

Ascendas Reit - 09 Apr 24

What does this stock chart says?

2.80 seem a strong resistance.  Watch if it have strength to go above 2.80

Ascendas Reit - 06 Dec 23

What does this stock chart says?

Resistance met.  Wait for further direction.  

Ascendas Reit - 24 Aug 2023

What does this stock chart says?

Not much strength to go up, every time hit upper resistance, investors start to sell.  Only when interest rate start to ease, then can Reits perform.

Ascendas Reit - 18 May 2023

What does this stock chart says?

Long-term downtrend.  Medium-term uptrend.  This is one strong reit.  

Ascendas Reit - 21 Feb 2023

What does this stock chart says?

Long-term trend is down.

Mid-term trend is up.  

Will turn-bearish again if cannot break the long-term upper resistance.

Ascendas Reit - Support and Resistance

What does this stock chart says?

Support around 2.80

Resistance around 3.00

Price action still above the previous downtrend line, need more time to see if it is really trending upwards, however, market sentiment is weak now.  

Yield at today close 2.84

Year	Yield	Total	Amount	Ex Date	Pay Date	Particulars
2022	5.45%	SGD 0.155	SGD0.05772	2022-08-10	2022-09-05	Rate: SGD 0.05772 Per Security
			SGD0.00372	2022-08-10	2022-09-05	Rate: SGD 0.00372 Per Security
			SGD0.01729	2022-08-10	2022-09-05	Rate: SGD 0.01729 Per Security
			SGD0.05499	2022-02-15	2022-03-11	Rate: SGD 0.05499 Per Security
			SGD0.01911	2022-02-15	2022-03-11	Rate: SGD 0.01911 Per Security
			SGD0.00188	2022-02-15	2022-03-11	Rate: SGD 0.00188 Per Security
2021	3.29%	SGD 0.093	SGD0.01419	2021-08-10	2021-09-03	Rate: SGD 0.01419 Per Security
			SGD0.00045	2021-08-10	2021-09-03	Rate: SGD 0.00045 Per Security
			SGD0.00566	2021-08-10	2021-09-03	Rate: SGD 0.00566 Per Security
			SGD0.0152	2021-05-11	2021-06-09	Rate: SGD 0.0152 Per Security
			SGD0.0411	2021-05-11	2021-06-09	Rate: SGD 0.0411 Per Security
			SGD0.01209	2021-02-09	2021-03-09	Rate: SGD 0.01209 Per Security
			SGD0.00051	2021-02-09	2021-03-09	Rate: SGD 0.00051 Per Security
			SGD0.00418	2021-02-09	2021-03-09	Rate: SGD 0.00418 Per Security
2020	5.82%	SGD 0.165	SGD0.0464	2020-11-17	2020-12-11	Rate: SGD 0.0464 Per Security
			SGD0.0007	2020-11-17	2020-12-11	Rate: SGD 0.0007 Per Security
			-	2020-11-17	-	Ratio: NA:NA
			SGD0.0103	2020-11-17	2020-12-11	Rate: SGD 0.0103 Per Security
			SGD0.0132	2020-07-30	2020-08-27	Rate: SGD 0.0132 Per Security
			SGD0.0591	2020-07-30	2020-08-27	Rate: SGD 0.0591 Per Security
			SGD0.0004	2020-07-30	2020-08-27	Rate: SGD 0.0004 Per Security
			SGD0.02956	2020-02-07	2020-03-04	Rate: SGD 0.02956 Per Security
			SGD0.0013	2020-02-07	2020-03-04	Rate: SGD 0.0013 Per Security
			SGD0.00421	2020-02-07	2020-03-04	Rate: SGD 0.00421 Per Security