Sarine Tech - 03 Jul 25

SARINE TECH (U77.SI) – SGX | Daily Chart | Sep 2024 – Jul 2025 | ~200 Bars
Market Regime: Transitioning from Ranging to Weak Downtrend

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🔍 1. Market Structure & Order Flow Analysis

• Swing Highs (SH):

  • 0.240 (Oct, Nov 2024)

  • 0.235 (Feb, Mar 2025)

  • 0.225 (May 2025)

• Swing Lows (SL):

  • 0.205 (Dec 2024)

  • 0.195 (Apr 2025)

  • 0.195 (Jun 2025)

  • 0.200 (Current Bar Holding Above)

• Structure Status:

  • Lower highs and lower lows from 0.240 → 0.235 → 0.225 → 0.210 → 0.195

  • Weak downtrend confirmed, but momentum flattening in recent bars (sideways grind near 0.195–0.205)

• CHoCH Zone:

  • A daily close >0.210 would represent a Change of Character, suggesting early bullish interest.

• Trend Momentum:

  • Decreasing bar ranges with overlapping candles suggest trend exhaustion and absorption.

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🧭 2. Volume-Price Relationship (VPR) Analysis

• Volume Spike @ 0.195 (Apr 2025):

  • Wide-range down bar on high volume, likely a climactic sell bar or capitulation low.

• Recent Volume Context (June–July):

  • Multiple tight-range bars with low-to-moderate volume, indicating volume dry-up – typically precedes directional move.

• Effort vs. Result (Recent):

  • Moderate effort (volume) with minimal downside continuation = potential absorption at 0.195–0.200 zone.

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🏛 3. Institutional Footprint Recognition

• Liquidity Grab Evidence:

  • False breakdown wick below 0.195 (Apr) followed by immediate reversal → possible spring action (Wyckoff).

• Accumulation Signs (Developing):

  • Price pinning 0.200 with repeated failed breakdown attempts, volume absorption → accumulation potential.

• Order Block:

  • Bullish order block near 0.195 (April’s low bar with volume spike) → structural demand zone.

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🧱 4. Bar Pattern Recognition

• Recent Bars (June – early July):

  • Multiple inside bars near support → coiled price action.

  • Narrow range Doji/spinning top bars show indecision, building tension.

• Reversal Signal (Pending Confirmation):

  • Need for bullish engulfing + volume spike to confirm spring action out of base.

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🌐 5. Multi-Timeframe Confluence

• Likely Weekly Chart Bias:

  • Weak bearish to neutral bias with flat structure. Weekly HL needed above 0.210 for full transition.

• Key Compression Zone:

  • Daily and likely weekly support overlap at 0.195–0.200 = high-probability demand zone.

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🧠 6. Psychological Levels & ATR Consideration

• 0.200 = Round Number Magnet:

  • Price defending this level repeatedly = psychological support.

• ATR Compression:

  • Volatility compressed post-April = potential for volatility expansion upon breakout.

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⚠️ 7. Risk-Adjusted Setup Identification

• High-Probability Accumulation Zone:

  • 0.195–0.200 = tight risk zone with high structural relevance.

• Stop Placement:

  • Below 0.190 (beneath structure + liquidity sweep area)

• Initial Profit Target:

  • 0.210 (CHoCH + minor resistance)

  • 0.225 (next swing high)

• R:R Potential:

  • Entry at 0.200, Stop at 0.190, Target at 0.225 = 1:2.5 R:R

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✅ Summary Analysis

• Market Regime: Weak downtrend transitioning to potential accumulation.

• Conviction Observations:

  1. Repeated defense of 0.200 zone with volume dry-up = accumulation footprint.

  2. Liquidity grab at 0.195 + spring-like action, no follow-through breakdown = institutional support.

  3. Inside bar clusters + volatility compression = imminent directional expansion likely.

  4. Volume absorption patterns with minimal price progress suggest smart money presence.

  5. Price trading at round number support with low-range candles = retail indecision vs. smart money stealth.

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📌 Forward Bias & Execution Zones

• Trade Summary:
  Buying SARINE TECH near 0.200 because of structural absorption and volatility compression, with stops at 0.190 targeting 0.225 for 1:2.5 risk-reward.

• Confidence Rating: 7.5 / 10

• Key Levels to Watch:

  • Support: 0.195 (demand zone)

  • Resistance: 0.210 (CHoCH), 0.225 (swing high)

  • Breakout Confirm: Close above 0.210 with volume

• Pre-Execution Checklist:
  ✅ Confirm breakout candle with above-average volume
  ✅ Ensure no major bearish catalyst
  ✅ Align with broader sector strength
  ✅ Manage size per 1R = max 1–2% account risk

Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

Dividend:  5.00%