Showing posts with label StarHill Global. Show all posts

Thursday, May 14, 2026

StarHill Global - 14 May 2025

Starhill Global REIT — P40U / SGX — Daily Chart Analysis

Timeframe: 1D
Last price shown: S$0.545

1. Current Market Regime Classification

Regime: Transitioning from bearish breakdown into lower-range consolidation.

The chart shows three major phases:

Phase 1 — Aug to Jan: Controlled markup / accumulation-to-advance
Price built higher lows from the S$0.530–0.535 area and advanced steadily toward S$0.600. The move was relatively orderly, with shallow pullbacks and repeated defense of higher structural supports.

Phase 2 — Feb to Mar: Distribution / sharp markdown
After failing around S$0.590–0.600, price broke down aggressively through S$0.575, S$0.560, and eventually into S$0.530. This was the key bearish change of character.

Phase 3 — Apr to May: Range recovery but no confirmed uptrend
Price rebounded from S$0.530 back to S$0.555–0.560, but the latest candle has rejected from that upper range and closed back at S$0.545. This suggests the recovery is losing momentum unless buyers quickly reclaim S$0.550–0.555.

2. Market Structure — Swing Highs / Swing Lows

Key Swing Highs

S$0.580 — Sep/Oct resistance area
S$0.590 — Nov swing high
S$0.600 — Jan/Feb major high
S$0.580 — Feb lower high after breakdown
S$0.555–0.560 — current lower resistance zone

Key Swing Lows

S$0.530–0.535 — Aug base and Mar/Apr support
S$0.555–0.560 — prior support during Sep/Oct, later broken
S$0.570 — Nov/Dec support, later failed
S$0.530 — current major demand floor

Structure Read

The primary structural damage occurred when price lost S$0.560 and accelerated into S$0.530 in March. That move broke the prior higher-low sequence and confirmed a bearish change of character.

The April bounce back toward S$0.555–0.560 has not yet created a confirmed bullish reversal because price has not reclaimed and held above the breakdown shelf.

3. Institutional Footprint / Smart Money Behavior

Major Supply Zone: S$0.590–0.600

The repeated activity around S$0.590–0.600 looks like a distribution or supply-transfer zone. Price spent time near the highs but failed to expand decisively above S$0.600. The later sharp markdown suggests that higher prices attracted supply rather than sustained demand.

Institutional read:
The inability to hold the high range, followed by a fast markdown, suggests strong hands may have distributed into the Jan/Feb strength.

Liquidity Grab / Trap Zone: S$0.530

The March and April lows near S$0.530 appear important. Price tested this area twice and rebounded, creating a potential double-bottom liquidity area.

However, the bounce has only reached S$0.555–0.560, which is still below the previous major breakdown area. That means buyers defended the floor, but they have not yet proven control.

Current Trap Risk

The move into S$0.555–0.560 may have trapped late buyers if price now rolls back below S$0.545. A failure to hold S$0.545–0.540 would indicate the recovery attempt is weakening.

4. Volume-Price Relationship

Bearish Volume Signature

The strongest volume cluster appears during the sharp March decline. That matters because volume expanded as price broke down from the S$0.575–0.560 zone toward S$0.530.

Interpretation:
High volume plus wide downside movement suggests professional selling, panic liquidation, or aggressive repricing.

Possible Absorption at S$0.530

Around S$0.530, volume remained active while downside progress slowed. That can suggest some demand absorption at the lows.

But absorption is only confirmed if price can reclaim resistance. So far, the rebound has stalled at S$0.555–0.560.

Recent Volume Concern

The recent rise into S$0.555–0.560 did not appear to generate decisive follow-through. Price has now slipped back to S$0.545, suggesting demand may be drying up near resistance.

5. Key Price Zones

Zone	Role	Interpretation
S$0.600	Major resistance	Prior high / likely heavy supply
S$0.590	Resistance	Prior distribution shelf
S$0.575–0.580	Major supply	Broken support turned resistance
S$0.555–0.560	Immediate resistance	Current rejection zone
S$0.545	Current pivot	Price must defend this to avoid renewed weakness
S$0.540	Minor support	Failure below here pressures the range
S$0.530–0.535	Major support	Current demand floor / breakdown risk if lost

6. Bar-by-Bar Reading of the Latest Area

The latest visible candle closed around S$0.545, down from the recent consolidation near S$0.555.

That is short-term bearish because:

Price failed to hold the S$0.555–0.560 resistance band.
The close is back near the lower half of the recent mini-range.
Buyers have not yet shown strong follow-through after the April recovery.
A move below S$0.540 would expose S$0.530 again.

The immediate bar-by-bar question is simple:
Was the pullback to S$0.545 just a retest before continuation higher, or the start of another rotation back to S$0.530?

Right now, the evidence favors caution until S$0.555–0.560 is reclaimed.

7. Bullish Scenario

A bullish reversal becomes more credible only if price:

Holds above S$0.540–0.545
Reclaims S$0.555
Breaks and closes above S$0.560
Shows volume expansion on the breakout
Then holds S$0.555–0.560 as support on retest

If that happens, next upside zones are:

S$0.575
S$0.580
S$0.590
S$0.600

The first meaningful bullish target would be S$0.575–0.580, because that was the prior breakdown shelf.

8. Bearish Scenario

The bearish case strengthens if price:

Fails to recover S$0.550–0.555
Breaks below S$0.540
Retests S$0.530
Breaks S$0.530 with volume expansion

A clean break below S$0.530 would be structurally significant because it removes the current demand floor and may trigger stops from buyers who entered the double-bottom area.

Downside risk below S$0.530 would likely open toward the next lower psychological/support zone near S$0.520, based on the visible chart scale.

9. Highest Conviction Observations

1. S$0.555–0.560 is the immediate decision zone.
Price has rejected from this area. Bulls need to reclaim it quickly.

2. S$0.530 is the major support floor.
Repeated defense of this level shows demand, but another test weakens the level.

3. The March selloff changed the character of the chart.
The structure shifted from higher highs/higher lows into a lower-range consolidation.

4. The current bounce is not yet a confirmed trend reversal.
It is still a recovery inside a broader damaged structure.

5. Volume around the breakdown was more aggressive than volume in the recovery.
That favors caution unless fresh demand appears on a breakout.

10. Risk-Adjusted Setup Framework

Long-side framework

A higher-quality long setup would require a daily close above S$0.560.

Possible entry trigger: close above S$0.560
Invalidation: below S$0.545 or more conservatively below S$0.530
First target: S$0.575–0.580
Second target: S$0.590
Risk-reward quality: acceptable only if entry is close to S$0.555–0.560 and stop is tightly defined

Short-side / defensive framework

A bearish setup becomes cleaner if price loses S$0.540.

Possible trigger: daily close below S$0.540
Invalidation: reclaim of S$0.555
First target: S$0.530
Second target: S$0.520
Risk-reward quality: better if rejection from S$0.555–0.560 continues

11. Forward Bias

Bias: Neutral-to-bearish while below S$0.555–0.560.

The chart is not in a clean bullish continuation pattern. It is in a repair phase after a sharp markdown. Bulls have defended S$0.530, but they still need to reclaim S$0.560 to prove that the recovery has institutional backing.

Until then, the risk is that price rotates back toward S$0.530.

Key Levels to Watch

Resistance: S$0.555, S$0.560, S$0.575, S$0.580
Support: S$0.545, S$0.540, S$0.530
Bullish confirmation: daily close above S$0.560 with volume
Bearish confirmation: daily close below S$0.540, then loss of S$0.530

Execution Checklist

Confirm whether price closes above or below S$0.545–0.550.
Avoid chasing inside the middle of the range.
Require volume confirmation on any breakout above S$0.560.
Treat S$0.530 as the major invalidation zone for bullish structure.
Do not enter without a defined stop and at least a 1:2 risk-reward profile.

Selling P40U / Starhill Global REIT because price rejected the S$0.555–0.560 resistance zone after a weak recovery, with stops at S$0.560 targeting S$0.530 for approximately 1:1.5 risk-reward.

Confidence rating: 6/10

Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

Dividend: 6.79%

Monday, November 24, 2025

StarHill Global - 24 Nov 2025

Starhill Global REIT (P40U), Daily Chart, Jan–Nov 2025
(Last traded price 0.580.)

Market Regime Classification

Regime: Trending → Mild Distribution → Sideways Compression
The chart shows a clear shift:

Feb–Aug 2025: Strong uptrend with progressive higher highs/higher lows.
Sep–Oct 2025: Trend continues but with weaker momentum, overlapping candles, and lower-volume pushes → momentum decay.
Nov 2025: Price trapped between 0.560–0.590, forming a tight range = early distribution or sideways compression before next impulse.

High-Conviction Observations (Top 5)

1. Strong Institutional Accumulation Zone at 0.455–0.480

The repeated tests of 0.455 (Apr panic low) were met with heavy volume absorption.
The long lower wicks + high volume + tight spread = strong hands absorbing retail capitulation.

2. Clean Trend Structure: BOS at 0.510 → Impulse to 0.550 → 0.580 → 0.590

Each breakout level showed volume expansion, confirming institutional participation.
Pullbacks remained shallow (23–38% of swings), a classic signature of institutional trending regime.

3. Momentum Decay After 0.590

The highs around 0.580–0.590 show:
- Smaller candle bodies
- Lower volume
- More overlapping bars
  → Clear signal that demand is weakening and supply is increasing.

4. Liquidity Grab at 0.590

The recent spike to 0.590 swept liquidity above the prior swing high.
The rejection back to mid-range (0.570–0.580) indicates a stop-hunt → smart money likely offloading.

5. Current Structure: Range-Bound 0.560–0.590

This range is forming right under resistance.
Volume is declining → coiling energy.
A breakout requires clear volume expansion above 0.590, otherwise a false breakout is likely.

Bar-by-Bar Structural Map

Major Swing Lows (SL)

SL1: 0.455 (Apr capitulation low)
SL2: 0.480 (May re-accumulation)
SL3: 0.495 (Jul continuation low)
SL4: 0.530 (Aug pullback)
SL5: 0.555–0.560 (Oct higher low cluster)

Major Swing Highs (SH)

SH1: 0.515 (Feb)
SH2: 0.510 → BOS (Apr recovery)
SH3: 0.550 (Aug breakout)
SH4: 0.580 (Sep breakout)
SH5: 0.590 (Oct/Nov liquidity sweep)

Market Structure Notes

Structure remains bullish above 0.560.
A daily close below 0.560 = CHoCH, signaling a possible shift into distribution.

Advanced Volume–Price Relationship (VPR)

Absorption Zones

0.455–0.480: High volume, small candle spreads → accumulation.
Aug pullback to 0.530: Volume contraction → lack of selling pressure → continuation move.

Volume Divergence

From 0.580 → 0.590, price made new highs while volume declined → weakening demand.

Volume Expansion on Breakouts

Breakouts at 0.510, 0.550, 0.580 showed healthy volume, confirming real orders.

Institutional Footprint Recognition

Liqudity Grab

The wick above 0.590 is a textbook stop-run engineered by smart money:
- Price swept above prior SH.
- Immediately rejected.
- Closed back inside structure.

Order Blocks

Bullish OB: 0.530–0.540 (Aug).
Bearish OB: 0.580–0.590 (Nov supply zone).

Fair Value Gaps (FVG)

Minor FVGs filled during Jul–Sep trend; no large unfilled gaps remain → trend was structurally efficient.

Bar Pattern Analysis

Reversal Signals

A small cluster of spinning tops near 0.590 = indecision at resistance.
No meaningful bearish engulfing yet → sellers not fully aggressive.

Continuation Signals

Multiple inside bars during Jul–Aug pullbacks → energy coil → breakout continuation.

Multi-Timeframe Confluence

(Higher timeframe inferred from daily structure)

Weekly shows resistance at 0.600, meaning daily compression under 0.590 is normal.
A weekly close above 0.600 = large timeframe BOS → 0.640 becomes next target.

Psychological + Structural Levels

0.600 = major psychological & structural ceiling.
0.560 = strong daily support.
0.530 = prior breakout level, strong HTF demand.

Risk-Adjusted Setup Mapping

Bullish Setup (High-Probability)

Buy Zone: 0.560–0.565
Stop: Below 0.550
Target 1: 0.590
Target 2: 0.600–0.610
RR: ~1:2.5 to 1:3

Bearish Setup (Only on Breakdown)

Trigger only if Daily CHoCH confirmed:

Sell Trigger: Break & close below 0.560
Target: 0.530
Stop: Above 0.575
RR: ~1:2.2

Forward-Looking Bias

Primary Bias: Mildly Bullish

As long as 0.560 holds, the market remains in a bullish structure despite momentum fatigue.

Key Levels to Watch

Level	Role
0.590–0.600	Major supply & liquidity resistance
0.580	Mid-range control price
0.560	Structural support (must hold)
0.530	Strong HTF demand if deeper pullback

Expected Path

Base case: Consolidation 0.560–0.590, followed by a breakout attempt.
Breakout confirmation requires strong volume above 0.600.
Weak breakout → likely trap, leading to retest of 0.560.

Conclusion

Starhill Global REIT remains in a controlled uptrend but is currently in late-stage trend compression. Institutional accumulation is clear at lower levels, but current price action shows signs of profit-taking and supply absorption near 0.590–0.600.

Hold or buy dips (0.560 area) remains the higher-probability strategy. A strong breakout above 0.600 will transition the chart into an impulsive expansion phase.

Wednesday, July 16, 2025

StarHill Global - 16 Jul 25

Asset: Starhill Global REIT (SGX: P40U)
Timeframe: Daily (1D)
Analysis Period: ~9 months (Oct 2024 – July 16, 2025)
Total Bars: Approx. 180 bars

🔍 Current Market Regime: Transition to Emerging Uptrend

Price recently broke above multi-month range resistance with expanding volume, indicating a potential regime shift from accumulation to early mark-up phase.

🔎 Highest Conviction Observations

Market Structure Shift (CHoCH Confirmed):
- Swing Low (SL): 0.455 (April 2025, extreme volume on flush candle - likely shakeout).
- Swing Highs (SH): 0.505 → 0.510 → 0.515 → now surpassed with 0.525 close.
- Break of Structure (BOS): Occurred at 0.515 level; price cleared this zone with volume expansion, shifting from ranging to trending structure.
Volume-Price Confirmation:
- Climactic Volume Bar (April 2025 @ 0.455): High-volume down bar followed by immediate reversal (classic institutional shakeout).
- Recent Volume Behavior: Rising volume as price breaks 0.515, confirming bullish interest and likely institutional accumulation below 0.50–0.51.
Accumulation Zone Defined (Institutional Footprint):
- Order Block Region: 0.480–0.495 acted as strong accumulation zone; multiple rejections and base building here before breakout.
- Fair Value Gap (FVG): Minor imbalance between 0.510–0.515 now filled and exceeded; clean price acceptance above.
Psychological and Structural Confluence:
- Resistance Turned Support: 0.515 now functions as reclaimed support.
- Round Number Significance: 0.50 acted as psychological anchor; breakout sustained above it.
Measured Move Potential:
- Accumulation range (0.455–0.515 = $0.06) implies initial projection to ~0.575 if mark-up holds.
- Resistance cluster near 0.545–0.555 expected as first major supply zone.

📊 Bar-by-Bar Microstructure (Recent Price Action)

July 15–16 Bars:
- Wide-range bullish candle (July 16) closing at high (0.525) with highest volume in weeks → denotes institutional strength.
- Prior bars showed narrowing ranges with increasing body size → coiled energy release.
Absorption Identified:
- Repeated bars near 0.510–0.515 with low spread and rising volume — suggestive of absorption before breakout.
No Major Bearish Reversal Bars:
- No pin bars, shooting stars, or bearish engulfing patterns post breakout — confirms lack of overhead supply.

🔁 Multi-Timeframe Confluence Check (Assumed Weekly Bias)

Weekly trend remains sideways but now showing bullish engulfing breakout beyond 7-month range.
Confirmation on weekly close above 0.530 enhances conviction.

🔐 Risk Management Parameters

Entry Zone: 0.520–0.525 (breakout continuation zone)
Stop Loss: Below 0.510 (invalidates breakout structure)
Target 1: 0.545 (prior minor resistance)
Target 2: 0.575 (measured move from accumulation range)
Risk-to-Reward: ~1:3.5 assuming 0.015 risk and 0.05 reward

📈 Forward-Looking Bias

Bias remains bullish above 0.510.
Watch for consolidation above 0.515 for base-building continuation.
Sustained volume expansion needed above 0.530 to validate further upside.

✅ Trade Summary Format

Buying P40U because of a confirmed breakout above multi-month resistance with institutional volume signature, with stops at 0.510 targeting 0.575 for a 1:3.5 risk-reward ratio.

Confidence Rating: 8/10
Key Levels to Watch: Support – 0.515, 0.510 | Resistance – 0.545, 0.575
Checklist Before Execution:
- Confirm strong daily close above 0.530
- Ensure volume maintains above 20-day average
- Review broader REIT sector sentiment and macro correlation

Sunday, May 11, 2025

StarHill Global - 09 May 25

📊 Starhill Global REIT (P40U.SI)

Exchange: Singapore Exchange (SGX)
Timeframe: Daily (1D)

🔍 1. Trend Analysis

Overall Trend: Range-bound/Sideways
- Price has been oscillating between SGD 0.465 and 0.515 since mid-2023.
Recent Structure:
- Higher Low formed at 0.455 (April 2025).
- Slight lower high at 0.510 (March 2025) following the previous 0.515 in February.
Trend Weakness:
- Multiple overlapping bars and small bodies around the 0.495–0.500 level suggest indecision.

🔑 2. Key Price Action Signals

Strong Trend Bars:
- Late Sept–Oct 2024 rally showed large green bars from 0.475 to 0.550 with good volume.
- April 2025 has a large red bar falling to 0.455, followed by a strong bounce.
Reversal Patterns:
- April 2025: A bullish pin bar/inverted hammer near 0.455 followed by bullish continuation bars.
- Feb–March 2025: Consolidation at 0.490–0.495, followed by a failed breakout above 0.510.
Inside/Doji Bars:
- Mid-March and early May 2025 show small-bodied candles near the 0.495–0.500 level, indicating hesitation.
Volume Spikes:
- Late Sept 2024: High volume green bars supported the rally.
- Early April 2025: High red volume bar during the fall to 0.455.
  - Bar Characteristics: Long body, closed near the low → selling climax.
Gaps:
- No significant visible gaps on this chart due to the illiquid, tightly spaced nature of REITs.

📏 3. Support & Resistance Levels

Major Resistance:
- 0.510–0.515: Multiple rejections (Feb–March 2025).
- 0.550: Peak in Oct 2024 before sell-off.
Major Support:
- 0.455: April 2025 low with strong rebound.
- 0.465–0.470: Held multiple times (May, Aug 2024).

🚀 4. Breakout & Pullback Analysis

Breakouts:
- The rally in Sept–Oct 2024 was a strong breakout above 0.500 with follow-through.
Pullbacks:
- The April 2025 sell-off to 0.455 acts as a deep pullback followed by aggressive buying (sharp V-reversal).
- Price respected support levels and bounced strongly, suggesting demand zone.

🌐 5. Market Context & Trading Bias

Context: The REIT is in a sideways consolidation, with a slight bullish tilt post-April 2025.
Bias Clues:
- Recent bullish engulfing and demand response from 0.455 suggests temporary optimism.
Trader Psychology:
- Fear on April drop (high volume red bar), followed by opportunistic buying (low tail, rising volume).

💧 6. Supply, Demand & Liquidity Zones

Supply Zones:
- 0.510–0.515: Sellers emerged here twice in 2025.
- 0.550: October 2024 high (likely profit-taking zone).
Demand Zones:
- 0.455: Strong buying response post-selloff.
- 0.465–0.470: Previous basing zone in mid-2024.
Liquidity Trap Example:
- Breakdown to 0.455 followed by reversal may have trapped late shorts or stop orders below support.

🎯 7. Risk Management Strategy (Example)

For educational purposes only:

Potential Entry: Above 0.500 with breakout confirmation and rising volume.
Stop-Loss: Below 0.485 or 0.475, depending on risk tolerance.
Target Zones: First near 0.515, then possibly 0.550 if volume supports.

Friday, October 04, 2024

StarHill Global - 04 Oct 2024

What does P40U stock chart says?

20 up bars = 1 month of up bars.

Forming a double head, buyers getting weak, expecting a techncial correction.

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Tuesday, August 15, 2023

StarHill Global - 15 Aug 2023

What does this stock chart says?

Reits seem all in same trend, downwards.

Monday, May 08, 2023

StarHill Global - 08 May 2023

What does this stock chart says?

Moving up and down the mini-down channel. No direction yet.

Friday, February 10, 2023

StarHill Global - 10 Feb 2023

What does this stock chart says?

Clear uptrend as price maintain higher low and higher high.

Tuesday, November 22, 2022

StarHill Global - Resistance

What does this stock chart says?

1st resistance hit.

Watch if price perform a higher low and higher high.

Current trend is down.

Yield at 0.545

Year	Yield	Total	Amount	Ex Date	Pay Date	Particulars
2022	6.97%	SGD 0.038	SGD0.0046	2022-08-04	2022-09-23	SGD 0.0046 per security/unit
			SGD0.0156	2022-08-04	2022-09-23	SGD 0.0156 per security/unit
			SGD0.0158	2022-02-03	2022-03-23	SGD 0.0158 per security/unit
			SGD0.002	2022-02-03	2022-03-23	SGD 0.002 per security/unit
2021	7.25%	SGD 0.04	SGD0.0184	2021-08-05	2021-09-24	SGD 0.0184 per security/unit
			SGD0.0023	2021-08-05	2021-09-24	SGD 0.0023 per security/unit
			SGD0.0179	2021-02-04	2021-03-25	SGD 0.0179 per security/unit
			SGD0.0009	2021-02-04	2021-03-25	SGD 0.0009 per security/unit
2020	3.36%	SGD 0.018	SGD0.007	2020-08-05	2020-08-28	SGD 0.007 per security/unit
			SGD0.0097	2020-02-05	2020-02-28	Rate: SGD 0.0097 Per Security
			SGD0.0004	2020-02-05	2020-02-28	Rate: SGD 0.0004 Per Security
			SGD0.0012	2020-02-05	2020-02-28	Rate: SGD 0.0012 Per Security