UOI - 24 Jul 25

UOI (U13.SI) | Daily Chart | SGX | July 24, 2025 | Bar-by-Bar Technical Analysis (Approx. 280 Bars)

🔄 Market Regime Classification: Ranging with Emerging Breakout Bias

The market has transitioned from a confirmed uptrend (Feb–Apr) into a multi-week range (May–Jul) with multiple false breakouts and rejections near the psychological 8.00 level. Current bar closed at resistance with increasing volume, suggesting institutional interest.

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🔍 Highest Conviction Observations

1. Breakout Attempt at 8.00 with Volume Expansion

   • Price closed at 8.00 after printing a near-full-body bullish candle.

   • Volume spike supports breakout legitimacy; not climactic yet, but marks renewed interest.

   • Multiple prior tests at 7.94–8.00 failed; today's break signals attempt to absorb overhead supply.

2. Volatility Compression Leading to Expansion

   • Past 20 sessions show volatility coil between 7.65 and 8.00 (tight range).

   • Inside bars and low-range candles in July signal market equilibrium → breakout prep.

   • Today's bar is the largest in 3 weeks with widest range since May.

3. Institutional Absorption evident between 7.70–7.80

   • Several high-volume but tight-range bars occurred in early July.

   • Indicates strong hands quietly building positions, likely absorbing retail exits.

   • Suggests a composite operator may be orchestrating a markup phase.

4. Demand Zone Confirmed: 7.65–7.70

   • Strong rejection off this level on multiple tests; represents a structurally important demand shelf.

   • Ideal area for risk placement (stop-loss zone).

5. Trend Resumption Bias Supported by Structural Reclaim

   • Break above 7.94 swing high confirms bullish break-of-structure (BOS).

   • Double bottom formed at 7.65 (June & July) acts as a structural spring.

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📊 Volume-Price Relationship (VPR) Highlights

• Today: High Volume + Wide Range = Institutional Initiative Move

• Previous Weeks: Low Volume + Narrow Range = Accumulation Setup

• Volume Cluster Zones:

  • 7.65–7.80: Accumulation base

  • 7.94–8.00: Prior resistance = absorption + breakout zone

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🧠 Smart Money Footprint Detection

• Order Block: Bullish order block identified from April near 7.30 (sharp upward pivot).

• Liquidity Grab: Minor stop-hunt below 7.65 in early July flushed out weak hands.

• Displacement: Today’s bar is a textbook displacement move—bullish confirmation with volume and price displacement clearing recent swing high.

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🧱 Multi-Timeframe Confluence (Presumed Weekly Bias)

• Weekly structure likely shows higher lows since March.

• Confluence of prior swing high at 8.00 on both daily/weekly charts—break confirms alignment.

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💡 Risk Management & Setup Evaluation

• Entry Zone: On retrace to 7.85–7.90 (prior breakout zone retest)

• Stop Placement: Below 7.65 demand floor

• Target 1: 8.25 (measured move from 7.65–8.00 breakout box)

• Target 2: 8.55 (projected continuation if breakout sustains)

• R:R Estimate: ~1:3 based on 0.20 risk for 0.60 reward potential

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🔑 Key Levels to Watch

• Support: 7.70, 7.65

• Resistance: 8.25 (next liquidity cluster), 8.55 (swing projection)

• Breakout Validation: Hold above 7.94 with continued volume strength

• Invalidation: Daily close below 7.65

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✅ Pre-Execution Checklist

• Volume continues to support price above 8.00

• No reversal candle near current highs

• ATR expansion supports breakout

• Confirm broader market sentiment (sector/SGX index alignment)

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Trade Summary:
Buying UOI (U13) because price broke above a key resistance level (8.00) on high volume after multi-week volatility compression, with stops at 7.65 targeting 8.25 and 8.55 for a 1:3 risk-reward ratio.
Confidence Rating: 8.5/10

Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

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