UOB Kay Hian - 17 Dec 2025

UOB-Kay Hian Holdings Ltd (SGX: U10)

Timeframe: Daily (1D)
Date Range: ~May 2025 – 17 Dec 2025
Last Traded Price: ~2.53
Approx. Bars Analyzed: ~150 trading sessions

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1. Market Regime Classification (Lead)

Current Regime: Transition → Late-Stage Range with Upward Bias

• Primary impulse up already completed (May–Sep)

• Since Oct: range-bound re-accumulation, not distribution

• Volatility compressed, ranges narrowing → energy build-up

• No structural breakdown → bias remains neutral-to-bullish, not trend-bearish

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2. Market Structure & Order Flow

A. Primary Structure (Macro)

May → Early Sep: Clean Uptrend

• Higher highs / higher lows:

  • ~1.84 → 2.03 → 2.63 → 2.72

• Strong directional legs with expanding volume

• Institutional sponsorship evident

Key Swing Points

• SH: 2.63 → 2.72

• SL: 2.14 → 2.35

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B. Structural Inflection

Change of Character (CHoCH): Early Oct

• Failure to hold above ~2.63–2.72

• First meaningful lower high

• Trend momentum decays (overlapping bars, smaller ranges)

⚠️ This is not a bearish BOS — it is a trend → range transition

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C. Current Micro-Structure (Oct → Dec)

• Defined range:

  • Range High: ~2.56–2.60

  • Range Low: ~2.31–2.35

• Higher lows inside the range:

  • 2.31 → 2.39 → ~2.45

• This is compressive accumulation, not distribution

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3. Volume–Price Relationship (VPR)

Key Observations

1. Expansion Volume on Impulse Legs (Bullish Legacy)

• July and early Sep rallies show:

  • Wide-range bullish bars

  • Clear volume expansion

• Confirms earlier institutional accumulation

2. Declining Volume During Pullbacks

• Pullbacks from 2.72 → 2.35 occurred on:

  • Lower volume

  • Smaller ranges

• Classic profit-taking, not aggressive selling

3. Volume Dry-Up Inside Range

• Oct–Dec volume steadily contracts

• Indicates:

  • Supply being absorbed

  • Weak hands exiting

• This favors eventual resolution upward

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4. Institutional Footprints & Smart Money Concepts

A. Absorption Zones (High Conviction)

2.30–2.35 Zone

• Repeated tests

• No downside follow-through

• Several small-range bars on relatively higher volume
  → Professional absorption

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B. Liquidity Behavior

• Minor stop-runs below ~2.35 rejected quickly

• No acceptance below 2.30

• Suggests sell-side liquidity already consumed

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C. Order Blocks

• Last bearish candles before July and Sep impulse legs sit around:

  • ~2.05

  • ~2.35

• The ~2.35 area continues to function as demand

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5. Bar Pattern Recognition

Reversal / Defense Bars

• Multiple lower-wick candles near 2.31–2.35

• Closes consistently above mid-range

• Volume supportive → defensive buying

Continuation Structures

• Series of inside bars near 2.45–2.55

• Indicates coiling energy, not exhaustion

No Distribution Signals

• No climactic selling bars

• No wide-range bearish closes with follow-through

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6. Psychological & Structural Levels

Level	Interpretation
2.30–2.35	Major institutional demand
2.50	Psychological pivot
2.56–2.60	Range ceiling / decision zone
2.72	Prior high → major liquidity target

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7. High-Probability Trade Zones (Risk-Adjusted)

Zone A: Range Support Re-Entry (Best R:R)

• Entry: 2.35–2.40

• Invalidation: < 2.30 (daily close)

• Targets:

  • T1: 2.56

  • T2: 2.70–2.72

• R:R: ~1:3+

Zone B: Breakout Acceptance Trade

• Trigger: Daily close & acceptance above 2.60

• Confirmation: Volume expansion

• Targets:

  • 2.72

  • Measured move projection: ~2.85

• Risk: Failed breakout back into range

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8. Highest-Conviction Observations (Summary)

1. No bearish BOS — only a trend-to-range transition

2. Repeated absorption at 2.30–2.35 confirms institutional demand

3. Volume contraction favors accumulation, not distribution

4. Higher lows inside range suggest upside pressure building

5. Next directional move likely impulsive, not gradual

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9. Forward-Looking Bias & Key Levels

Bias:

• Neutral-to-bullish while above 2.30

• Bullish continuation if > 2.60 accepted

• Bearish only if clean acceptance below 2.30 (currently low probability)

Key Levels to Watch Closely

• 2.35 (structure integrity)

• 2.56–2.60 (range resolution)

• 2.72 (liquidity magnet)

Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

Dividend:  4.70%