UOB Kay Hian - 30 Jul 25

• Stock: UOB Kay Hian (SGX: U10)

• Timeframe: Daily

• Analysis Period: ~9 months (Oct 2024 – Jul 30, 2025)

• Number of Bars: ~190

• Last Traded Price: 2.39 SGD

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🔍 1. Market Structure & Order Flow Analysis

• Primary Structure: Strong uptrend, recently accelerating into parabolic territory.

• Swing Highs/Lows:

  • HH: 2.65 (recent peak)

  • HLs: 1.65 → 1.77 → 2.03 → explosive rally to 2.65

• BOS: Confirmed bullish BOS above 2.03 (July breakout)

• CHoCH Potential: Watch for CHoCH if price breaks below 2.20 (minor HL zone).

• Trend Momentum: Peaked — recent bars show increasing range with volume, then abrupt downside bar suggesting momentum exhaustion.

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🏦 2. Institutional vs. Retail Behavior

• Absorption Evidence:

  • Late May–June: multiple tight-range bars with above-average volume near 1.84 → institutional absorption before breakout

• Climactic Volume:

  • July 26–29: wide range, high volume bars → potential buying climax

• Shakeout Risk:

  • Today’s bar (Jul 30) shows sharp downside rejection from highs, likely flushing weak hands.

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📈 3. Volume-Price Relationship (VPR)

• Volume Spike:

  • Volume surged on the breakout above 2.03 (mid-July), followed by two high-volume bearish candles — volume divergence suggests distribution.

• Wide Range Down Bar (Jul 30):

  • High volume, long body = potential professional selling

• Volume Cluster:

  • Heavy volume between 2.30–2.65 — may act as a supply zone moving forward.

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🧠 4. Institutional Footprints

• Liquidity Grab:

  • Break above 2.50 on Jul 29 likely served as a liquidity sweep triggering buy stops → immediate reversal

• Order Block:

  • Final bullish candle before sharp move down near 2.50–2.60 = potential bearish OB

• Displacement:

  • July breakout from 2.03 → 2.65 is a clear displacement, now under retracement phase

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📉 5. Bar Pattern Recognition

• Reversal Bars:

  • Jul 29–30: two-bar bearish engulfing setup post-climax

• Continuation Failures:

  • Price failed to sustain above 2.60, printing lower highs = reversal probability increasing

• Doji/Indecision:

  • No true dojis here, but current body structure leans bearish continuation

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⏱ 6. Multi-Timeframe Confluence

• Likely Weekly Overbought Zone:

  • Based on daily parabolic run, weekly structure likely hitting long-term resistance

• Watch for weekly confirmation:

  • If this week closes below 2.30 → weekly CHoCH likely confirmed

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🔢 7. Psychological Levels

• Round Number Influence:

  • 2.50 and 2.00 acted as psychological magnets

• Today’s Close at 2.39:

  • Holding just above 2.35–2.38 intraday structure — watch 2.30–2.35 for support test

• ATR Expansion:

  • Bar range has sharply widened = volatile regime shift

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🛡 8. Risk-Adjusted Setup Identification

• Potential Short Setup:

  • Entry near 2.39 if pullback fails to reclaim 2.50

  • Stop-loss: above 2.65 (failed breakout high)

  • Target 1: 2.20 (minor HL support)

  • Target 2: 2.03 (key breakout base)

  • RR: ~1:2.5 to 1:3 if managed correctly

• Caution: Volatility elevated, use reduced sizing

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🧭 9. Market Regime

• Current Regime: Transitioning from Trend to Distribution

  • Evidence: Wide range bars, climactic volume, failed breakout, engulfing reversal

  • Bias: Bearish correction or range consolidation likely

✅ Forward Bias & Execution Plan

• Bias: Short-term bearish retracement/correction

• Key Support: 2.30 → if breaks, opens 2.03 retest

• Key Resistance: 2.50–2.60 (supply zone)

• Structural Breakdown Zone: Below 2.20 confirms short-term trend reversal

• Volume Control Point: Monitor activity near 2.35 — acts as volume node

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📌 Trade Summary Format

Selling UOB Kay Hian (SGX: U10) because a climactic volume breakout failed with bearish engulfing bar and supply zone rejection, with stops at 2.66, targeting 2.03 for approx. 1:3 RR.
Confidence Rating: 8/10

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✅ Checklist Before Execution

• Confirm breakdown below 2.35 on volume

• Align with broader SGX index tone

• Monitor if 2.50 is retested and rejected

• Risk manage with adjusted sizing (due to volatility)

Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

Dividend:  3.85%