CREDITBUREAUASIA (SGX: TCU) – DAILY CHART ANALYSIS (31 JULY 2025)
Chart Timeframe & Period: Daily; ~10 months (Oct 2024 – Jul 2025)
Number of Bars: ~200
Last Traded Price: 1.39 SGD
Regime Classification: Transitioning from Range to Potential Breakout
🔍 Highest Conviction Observations
1. Macro Market Structure Shift: Range to Breakout Attempt
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Clear horizontal structure from Dec 2024 to Jul 2025 between 1.16 support and 1.38–1.40 resistance.
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Most recent candle closes at 1.39, re-testing major horizontal resistance at 1.40, previously tested in early May 2025.
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No clear higher high yet beyond the 1.40 swing top — confirmation needed for full breakout classification.
2. High Volume + Small Range = Institutional Absorption
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Final bar (31 Jul) shows notable volume surge but very tight price spread (1.39 close) = Absorption likely at resistance.
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Institutional presence suspected — testing supply before breakout or shaking out premature longs.
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Historical behavior supports this: prior high-volume bars (Apr and May 2025) also failed to break out, suggesting distribution zones were present.
3. Volume-Price Relationship Indicates Test of Resistance
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Volume expansion into resistance without full breakout = caution for bull trap potential.
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No volume divergence detected yet – volume is increasing into the move (bullish if confirmed).
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Note: Previous high-volume candles in April led to immediate reversals (e.g., 1.34 → 1.16 sharp sell-off), hinting at supply just above.
4. Liquidity Grab Watch Above 1.40
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Strong likelihood of liquidity spike above 1.40 to trigger stops and test hidden supply.
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Expect potential false breakout (Upthrust) followed by fade back into range if no follow-through on volume.
5. Recent Bar Structure: Strength Building
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Past 7–10 sessions formed a tight coiling pattern (mini flag) between 1.34–1.38.
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Breakout candle on Jul 30 was wide-range and high-volume, followed by current absorption bar (Jul 31), showing potential displacement move initiation.
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Suggests Smart Money preparing to mark up if follow-through occurs above 1.40 with sustained volume.
📊 Key Technical Levels
| Level | Type | Reasoning |
|---|---|---|
| 1.40 | Resistance | Multi-month range top & double top zone |
| 1.38 | Short-term Support | Recent breakout point — watch for throwback |
| 1.31 | Range Midpoint | Minor support inside prior structure |
| 1.16 | Major Support | Key demand zone tested multiple times |
| 1.44–1.48 | Target Zone | Projected range expansion (R = H-L = 1.40 - 1.16 = 0.24) added to breakout point |
📉 Risk Management Framework
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Stop Loss: Below 1.38 (invalidates breakout thesis)
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Target 1: 1.44 (measured move projection)
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Target 2: 1.48 (extended projection)
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Risk-Reward Estimate: Approx. 1:3 if entered at 1.39, stop at 1.37, target 1.44
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Caution: Wait for clean breakout AND retest confirmation or strong follow-through volume to validate entry
🔮 Forward-Looking Bias
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Bullish bias if 1.40 is decisively cleared with wide-range candle + volume expansion (> last 3-day average).
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Neutral bias if price stalls or reverses from 1.40, suggesting continued range behavior.
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Bearish fade possible if false breakout confirmed via lower close back into 1.36 zone.
✅ Pre-Execution Checklist
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Clean breakout above 1.40 with volume > 2x 10-day average
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No immediate rejection wick or strong selling above 1.40
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Retest of 1.38–1.39 with low volume and successful bounce
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Broader market/sector support for upside continuation
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News/catalyst alignment (if any) for sustainable move
Trade Summary Format:
Buying CREDITBUREAUASIA (SGX: TCU) because price is testing multi-month resistance at 1.40 with institutional absorption and volume expansion, with stops at 1.37 targeting 1.44 for 1:3 risk-reward ratio.
Confidence Rating: 7/10
Key Levels to Watch: 1.40 (breakout), 1.38 (retest), 1.44 (target), 1.16 (invalidator)
Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.
Dividend: 2.88%
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