Frasers Centrepoint - 11 Jul 25

• Stock: Frasers Centrepoint Trust (SGX: J69U)

• Timeframe: Daily (1D)

• Date Range: October 2024 – July 11, 2025

• Bars Analyzed: ~180 bars

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🔍 1. MARKET REGIME CLASSIFICATION

• Current Market Regime: Transitioning from uptrend to range with bearish bias

  • Breakdown from recent local high at 2.29, testing previous support levels

  • Short-term lower highs and lower lows forming since late June

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🔩 2. HIGHEST CONVICTION OBSERVATIONS

🟠 A. Market Structure & Order Flow

• Major Swing Highs (SH): 2.29 (late May), 2.23 (April & June), 2.17 (multiple rejection zones)

• Major Swing Lows (SL): 2.03 (April), 2.04 (March), 2.13 (June), 2.15 (May)

• Recent Break of Structure (BOS): Breakdown below 2.23 (June swing high) and retracement failure

• Change of Character (CHoCH): Loss of bullish structure at 2.23 → lower high at 2.26 → lower low at 2.15

• Trend Momentum: Weakening; recent red bars show increasing volume but lack strong downside continuation = potential absorption

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🟢 B. Volume-Price Relationship (VPR)

• Absorption Detected: High volume on 11 July with small spread bar closing near open (potential demand zone defense)

• Volume Clusters: Dense volume at 2.15–2.19 zone; suggests area of institutional reactivity

• Volume Expansion on Breakdown (July 5–9): Heavy sell pressure yet limited price extension—possible professional accumulation below 2.20

• Volume Dry-Up in Range (Mid-June): Preceded the breakdown from the 2.26 zone—classic volume contraction → expansion sequence

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🧠 C. Institutional Footprint Recognition

• Liquidity Grab at 2.29 (May): False breakout followed by immediate sharp selloff—classic upthrust behavior

• Order Block Zone: 2.23–2.26 (confluence of prior resistance and failed continuation)

• Fair Value Gap (FVG): Between 2.04–2.13 (inefficient move in April) remains untested—potential magnet

• Displacement Move (March): Sharp move from 2.04 to 2.23 with expanding volume—anchor zone for institutional demand

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🔁 D. Bar Pattern Recognition

• Recent Bars:

  • July 10–11: Narrow spread bars on expanding volume → absorption/professional support

  • July 9: Bearish engulfing bar with strong close but no continuation—signals potential exhaustion

• Cluster Formation: Inside bar sequence building between 2.15–2.19 → coiled energy suggesting imminent expansion

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🧭 E. Multi-Timeframe Confluence

• Weekly Structure: Still broadly rangebound between 2.00–2.30; 2.20 zone sits at midpoint = balance area

• Daily Context: Pullback to support zone with decreasing momentum—favors bounce/retest of 2.23 before directional resolution

• Compression Building: Multiple inside-day bars below 2.23 resistance suggests upcoming expansion move

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📐 KEY PRICE LEVELS & STRUCTURAL ZONES

Zone	Type	Significance
2.29	Swing High (SH)	False breakout – liquidity trap zone
2.23 – 2.26	Order Block	Supply zone – potential retest/resistance
2.15 – 2.19	Accumulation Range	Absorption & defense zone – key decision area
2.04 – 2.13	FVG Demand Zone	Inefficiency likely to be filled
2.03	Swing Low	Last line of structural support

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🔐 RISK-ADJUSTED SETUP INSIGHT

• Setup Type: Absorption support bounce within broader range

• Entry Zone: 2.18–2.19 (confirmation needed above 2.20 with volume)

• Stop Placement: Below 2.13 (swing low structure)

• Profit Targets:

  • TP1: 2.23 (range edge)

  • TP2: 2.26 (order block midpoint)

• R/R Ratio: ~1:2.5 if entering 2.19 with stop at 2.13 and target 2.26

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🧭 FORWARD-LOOKING BIAS & STRATEGIC OUTLOOK

• Short-term bias neutral to slightly bullish, pending breakout from 2.20–2.23 range

• Structural break below 2.13 would negate accumulation thesis and shift bias bearish

• Reclaiming 2.23 with volume would initiate fresh leg towards 2.29

• Watch for Monday gap behavior and open drive reaction for directional bias confirmation

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✅ TRADE SUMMARY

Buying SGX:J69U because of absorption at 2.18–2.19 within key demand zone, with stops at 2.13 targeting 2.26 for 1:2.5 risk-reward ratio.
Confidence Rating: 7.5 / 10
Key Levels to Watch: 2.13 (support), 2.23 (resistance), 2.26 (supply edge)

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✅ PRE-TRADE CHECKLIST

• Volume confirmation above 2.20?

• Stop placement clear below structural low?

• Clean rejection or acceptance at 2.23 zone?

• Confirm no high-impact news scheduled Monday?

Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

Dividend:  6.35%