Thursday, December 04, 2025

UOI - 04 Dec 2025

Stock: United Overseas Insurance Limited (UOI) — SGX: U13
Timeframe: Daily
Date Range: Jan 2025 → 4 Dec 2025
Bars: ~230
Last Traded Price: 7.60

1. Current Market Regime Classification

➡️ Ranging → Bearish Transition

The chart shows:

A broad range 7.30 – 8.10 since April.
Multiple failed attempts to break 8.00 – 8.10 resistance.
Recent inability to hold mid-range 7.80, followed by consistent closes near 7.60.
Increasing downside volatility in Oct–Nov with a key washout to 7.49 but no meaningful upside response.

This indicates a transition from a maturing range into early distribution.

2. Highest Conviction Observations (Top 5)

1. Structural ceiling at 8.00–8.10 is heavily defended by institutions

Every approach to 8.00–8.10 shows:

Wider ranges + high volume (effort)
Weak closes (poor result)
→ Effort vs result = distribution, not accumulation.

2. Mid-range value (7.70–7.75) has broken; this is the key bearish tell

This level held repeatedly from May–Aug.
Break below it in Nov → Change of Character (CHoCH) downward.

3. October washout to 7.49 = liquidity grab, but follow-through is weak

A proper spring should have:

Strong bullish follow-through
Demand tail + breakout above mid-range
Instead → price stalled → weak demand, confirming distribution.

4. Volume behaviour shows repeated absorption on up-days

Across July–November:

Green bars often show high volume but small closes, indicating supply absorbing every rally.

5. Local support at 7.49–7.55 is the final floor

This level was defended twice, but demand is thinning.
A breakdown opens 7.30, then 7.00.

3. Market Structure & Order Flow Analysis

Trend Structure

Key swing highs (SH): 7.85 (Apr), 7.94 (May), 8.09 (Aug), 7.94 (Oct)
Key swing lows (SL): 7.30 (Mar), 7.65 (Jul), 7.49 (Oct)

Break of Structure (BOS) / CHoCH

Nov CHoCH: Loss of 7.70 triggered a structural shift.
Micro BOS: Lower highs from Oct → Nov → Dec.

Momentum decay is clear:

Bars are overlapping and narrow.
Failed rallies show little range expansion.
No impulsive displacement upward since August.

4. Advanced Volume–Price Relationship (VPR)

Absorption Events (Institutional Supply)

Repeated at:

7.90–8.10 (major ceiling)
7.75–7.80 (mid-range supply)

High volume + small upward progress = sellers in control.

Volume Clusters

July, September, and October show large red-volume surges → distribution spikes.
No sustained green clusters → demand is episodic, not structural.

Volume Divergence

Price held near 7.80 in October, but volume declined, confirming weakening interest before the drop.

5. Institutional Footprint Recognition

Liquidity Grabs

Oct low at 7.49 is a clear liquidity sweep.
But lack of reversal strength indicates it was not a spring—just stop-hunting.

Order Blocks

Bearish OB: 7.90–8.00 (Aug–Sep)
New bearish OB: 7.75–7.80 (Nov–Dec) → acting as near-term supply.

Fair Value Gaps (FVG)

Small downside FVGs created in late Nov are unfilled → bearish continuation bias.

Displacement

Sharp down move from 7.80 → 7.55 in mid-Nov shows true institutional sell pressure.

6. Bar Pattern Recognition

Reversal Bars

Strong bullish hammers are absent near lows → no genuine accumulation signatures.
Most long-wick bars appear on rallies, not at lows → signs of selling into strength.

Indecision Bars Increasing

Cluster of spinning tops at 7.60–7.70 shows:

Supply meeting demand
But with the trend turning down, these are continuation patterns, not reversals.

7. Multi-Timeframe Confluence

Weekly structure:

Lower highs since Aug
Flat support at 7.50
Tightening range
→ Classic distribution top pattern.

Daily + weekly both point to downside pressure.

8. Psychological Levels

Key levels with behavioural significance:

8.00 (round number stopper)
7.50 (weekly support pivot)
7.30 (March low, high-probability revisit if breakdown occurs)

9. Risk-Adjusted Setup Zones

Bearish Scenario (Higher Probability)

Entry zone: 7.70–7.75 (supply OB)
Stop: Above 7.90
Targets:

T1: 7.50
T2: 7.30
T3: 7.00 (if a major breakdown occurs)

Risk/Reward ≈ 1:2.5 → 1:4

Bullish Scenario (Low Probability, Needs Confirmation)

Need a clean reclaim of 7.80 + volume expansion.

Entry: After breakout-retest of 7.80
Stop: 7.60
Targets:

T1: 8.00
T2: 8.10 (major resistance)
T3: 8.30 only if volume displacement appears

10. Forward-Looking Bias

Bias: Bearish-to-Neutral

Unless 7.80 is reclaimed convincingly.

Key Signals to Watch

Break below 7.49
→ Opens fast path to 7.30, then 7.00.
Failure to climb above 7.75
→ Confirms continued distribution.
Volume expansion on down-days
→ Confirms institutional continuation selling.

11. Summary (Professional-Level Takeaway)

UOI is not in accumulation.
The structure shows:

Persistent supply
Weak demand
Distribution signatures
Lower highs + mid-range failure

The most probable path is continued weakness toward 7.50 → 7.30 unless a strong bullish catalyst shifts order flow.

Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

Dividend: 2.24%

Arthur Wang Technical Analysis