Raffles Medical - 30 Jan 2026

Chart Setup & Context

• Stock: Raffles Medical Group Ltd (SGX: BS6)

• Timeframe: Daily (1D)

• Analysis Period: ~Feb 2025 → Jan 2026 (~240 trading bars)

• Last Traded Price: S$0.995

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1. Market Regime Classification (Lead With Regime)

Primary Regime: Range-bound / Accumulation-to-Transition regime

• No sustained higher-high / higher-low sequence since August

• Repeated failures above 1.02–1.05

• Strong demand repeatedly defending 0.96–0.97

• Volatility compression + declining momentum → late-stage range

This is not a trend market; it is a campaign-style accumulation range.

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2. Higher-Timeframe Structure (Macro → Micro)

Macro Structure (Daily)

• Range High (Supply): 1.02 → 1.05 (major institutional sell zone)

• Range Low (Demand): 0.96 → 0.97 (repeated defended base)

• Range Mid: ~0.99–1.00 (fair value / churn zone)

Price has spent ~60% of time inside the range, a classic absorption signature.

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3. Swing Structure & Order Flow

Key Swing Points

• Major Swing Highs (SH):

  • 1.09 (Aug spike – climactic, rejected immediately)

  • 1.05 (May / Aug)

  • 1.02 (Sep / Nov / Jan – repeated failure)

• Major Swing Lows (SL):

  • 0.90 (April – capitulation)

  • 0.94 (June – spring-like recovery)

  • 0.965–0.970 (Oct / Nov / Dec – structural higher low)

Structure Read

• Post-August: Lower volatility, overlapping bars

• No BOS to upside yet

• Series of equal lows → absorption, not weakness

This is range compression, not distribution.

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4. Volume-Price Relationship (VPR) – Critical Evidence

A. Accumulation Clues

• High volume + small real bodies near 0.96–0.97
  → Institutional absorption

• October and December tests of lows:

  • Volume expands

  • Downside follow-through fails

  • Price reclaims range quickly

This is effort without result → demand > supply.

B. Supply Signature

• Pushes into 1.02:

  • Volume increases

  • Candles stall / overlap

  • Upper wicks dominate

This is passive sell-side absorption (distribution of short-term inventory, not full exit).

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5. Institutional Footprints (Smart Money Concepts)

Liquidity Events

• August spike to 1.09

  • Wide range up

  • High volume

  • Immediate rejection
    → Classic liquidity grab / bull trap

Order Blocks

• Bullish Order Block: 0.96–0.97
  Last down candles before strong reactions (Oct, Nov, Dec)

• Bearish Order Block: 1.02–1.05
  Last up candles before repeated sell-offs

Fair Value Gaps (Inefficiency)

• Minor FVGs around 0.98–0.99
  → explains repeated mean-reversion behavior

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6. Bar-by-Bar Pattern Insights (High Signal)

Reversal / Absorption Bars

• Multiple long-wick down bars near 0.97 with:

  • High volume

  • Strong closes off lows
    → Professional buying into panic

Continuation Failure

• Break attempts above 1.02:

  • No expansion in range

  • No follow-through
    → Lack of sponsorship

Indecision

• Frequent spinning tops / small real bodies around 1.00
  → market in balance, waiting for catalyst

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7. Psychological & Structural Levels

• 0.95 / 1.00 / 1.05 = dominant psychological references

• 1.00 acts as magnet price

• Institutions are active below 1.00, not above it

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8. High-Conviction Observations (3–5 Key Points)

1. 0.96–0.97 is a real demand zone, defended multiple times with volume confirmation

2. 1.02–1.05 is a hard supply ceiling – no structural breakout yet

3. Volatility compression suggests energy build-up, not trend exhaustion

4. August 1.09 spike was liquidity, not value discovery

5. Current price (0.995) sits in no-trade / churn zone

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9. Risk-Adjusted Trade Zone Mapping (If One Were to Act)

Long-Side (Only Where Institutions Act)

• Accumulation Zone: 0.96–0.97

• Stop: Below 0.94 (structural, not arbitrary)

• Initial Target: 1.02

• Extended Target (only on volume expansion): 1.05

• R:R: ~1:2.5 to 1:3

Breakout Trade (Only If Conditions Met)

• Trigger: Daily close > 1.02 with volume expansion

• Confirmation: Follow-through bar, not a single spike

• Otherwise: assume false breakout

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10. Forward-Looking Bias & Levels to Watch

Bias:

• Neutral → cautiously constructive

• Market is coiling, not trending

Key Levels

• Below 0.96: Structure weakens → accumulation thesis invalid

• Above 1.02 (with volume): Transition → potential trend resumption

• Stuck 0.98–1.00: Expect continued churn

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Final Institutional Read

This is a textbook late-stage accumulation range with clear professional buying at the lows and controlled selling at the highs. Until 1.02 is broken with authority, patience and location-based execution matter far more than prediction.

Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

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