Frasers Centrepoint Trust (J69U), Daily Chart, Mar–Nov 2025
**MARKET REGIME (T-1):
🔻 Transition → Early Downtrend**
Price topped at 2.47, failed to hold 2.40–2.47 supply, and has now broken below 2.30 support with expanding sell volume.
Structure has shifted from a steady uptrend (Jul–Oct) into a distribution top → breakdown → weakening retest.
HIGHEST-CONVICTION FINDINGS
1. Clear BOS Down After 2.47 Distribution Top
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Swing Highs: 2.29 → 2.40 → 2.47 (clean rising structure)
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After the 2.47 high:
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Wide-range red bars,
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Volume expansion,
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Close near lows
→ Indicates institutional selling, not retail noise.
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This created a Break of Structure (BOS) below 2.40, then again below 2.30.
2. 2.30 Is the Key Structural Level (Now Flipped to Resistance)
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Historical support: Apr, May, and October pivots.
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Price broke it on high effort (volume) with strong downside result → no absorption.
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Current price at 2.26 shows weak reaction, meaning buyers are passive.
This is a textbook supply-dominant retest after breakdown.
3. Volume–Price Relationship Shows Institutional Distribution
Key signatures visible:
| Pattern | Evidence | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| High vol + wide down bars | Post-2.47 selloff | Professional unloading |
| High vol + small up bars | Retest to 2.30 | Seller absorption |
| Low vol during prior uptrend | Jul–Sep | Weak demand → structurally fragile rally |
This is classic distribution → markdown behavior.
4. Multiple Liquidity Grab Wicks Around 2.47 Top
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Repeated upper-wicks around 2.47 before breakdown → upthrust (Wyckoff UTA).
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Purpose: trigger breakout buyers + stops, then reverse.
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Strong institutional footprint.
5. Weak Demand Zone Tests at 2.20–2.26
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The current bars show:
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Small bodies,
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Lower closes,
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No bullish tail,
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No demand surge.
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This implies no meaningful buying yet; 2.20 is vulnerable.
DETAILED BAR-BY-BAR STRUCTURE
1️⃣ Macro Structure
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Primary Trend: Uptrend from Jun → Oct.
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Transition: Sideways distribution at 2.40–2.47 with supply absorption signals.
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Current: Breakdown → early-stage downtrend.
2️⃣ Micro Structure (Recent 30–40 bars)
Upswing into 2.47
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Gradual climb with diminishing volume → demand weakening.
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Multiple wicks at highs → supply present.
Reversal from 2.47
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A sequence of 3 wide red bars with rising volume → institutional-effort selloff.
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No bullish follow-through → demand absorbed completely.
Break of 2.30
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Clean decisive break with volume confirmation.
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Followed by weak drift upward → classic retest.
INSTITUTIONAL FOOTPRINTS
Liquidity Grab (Upthrust)
The 2.47 breakout attempt was:
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Wide upper wicks
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No acceptance above level
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Immediate reversal
→ Smart money trapping breakout buyers.
Order Block (Supply Block)
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Last strong bullish bar before the markdown sits around 2.40–2.47.
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Price should not reclaim this zone if bears are in control.
Displacement
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Strong, decisive down move from 2.47 → 2.30 → 2.25
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Indicates institutional control.
Fair Value Gap (FVG)
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A visible inefficient gap in the downward sequence.
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Price often revisits FVG, but only after liquidity objectives are met.
VOLUME–PRICE ANALYSIS (VPA)
| Zone | VPA Signal | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| 2.47 area | Climactic + wicks | Exhaustion + distribution |
| 2.40 break | High effort + high result | True supply |
| 2.30 break | Volume expansion | Real structural breakdown |
| 2.26–2.20 | Elevated vol + no bounce | Weak demand, possible continuation |
MULTI-TIMEFRAME CONFLUENCE
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Weekly: Likely forming a lower high under 2.47 → risk of weekly trend reversal.
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Daily: Clear BOS and downtrend initiation.
Confluence = bearish bias across timeframes.
PSYCHOLOGICAL LEVELS
Critical round numbers:
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2.50 → long-term ceiling
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2.40 → intermediate supply
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2.30 → newly flipped resistance
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2.20 → next key demand
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2.00 → major psychological magnet if downtrend accelerates
HIGH-PROBABILITY ZONE MAPPING
Immediate Resistance
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2.30 (structural + volume cluster)
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2.40 (major supply)
Immediate Support
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2.20
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2.13 (historical pivot)
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2.04–2.03 (swing low cluster)
RISK-MANAGEMENT FRAMEWORK (IF TRADING)
If Short Bias
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Entry: 2.30 retest failure
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Stop: Above 2.33–2.35
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Targets:
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TP1: 2.20
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TP2: 2.13
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TP3: 2.04
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If Looking for Longs
Only consider longs if:
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Price shows No-Demand → Stopping Volume → Test, or
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Reclaims 2.30 with volume expansion.
FORWARD-LOOKING BIAS
Base Case (Most Likely)
🔻 Continuation Down to 2.20, then potential reaction.
Lack of demand + structural breakdown = downside pressure persists.
Fail Case (Invalidation)
🐂 Bullish only if daily closes above 2.30 with volume confirmation.
KEY LEVELS TO WATCH
| Level | Role |
|---|---|
| 2.47 | Macro supply cap |
| 2.40 | Secondary supply zone |
| 2.30 | Critical retest resistance |
| 2.26 | Current weak support |
| 2.20 | Next demand |
| 2.13 | Deeper support |
| 2.04 | Major support |
Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.
Dividend: 5.40%
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