Keppel Ltd. (SGX: BN4) — 1D (Daily)
Date range shown: ~Jun 2025 → 11 Feb 2026
Last traded price (close): 12.38
Day range: O 12.50 / H 12.50 / L 12.30 / C 12.38
Trend: Strong uptrend (clean HH/HL sequence)
1) Current Market Regime (most important)
Late-stage trending regime → “Markup acceleration / near-climax” conditions.
You have:
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A long, orderly uptrend (June → Jan)
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Followed by a sudden vertical expansion leg into 12.50
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With volume expansion into the breakout
This is bullish, but late-stage: the risk is no longer “will it break out”, but “how violent will the pullback be after the breakout.”
2) Structure: Swing Highs/Lows, BOS, CHoCH
Primary structure (June → Feb)
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Clear higher highs + higher lows.
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Key visible swing levels marked on chart:
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~8.84 (Aug swing)
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~10.38 (Nov swing high)
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~9.81 / 9.98 (mid-trend pullback lows)
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BOS (Break of Structure)
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BOS above 10.38 was the big structural confirmation.
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After that, price went into a steady grind (low volatility) then exploded.
CHoCH risk (Change of Character)
A CHoCH would show up if:
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Price fails to hold above 11.80–12.00
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Then breaks down below the last higher low (likely around 11.20–11.40 zone)
Right now, no CHoCH yet — but you are in the zone where it can happen quickly.
3) Volume-Price Relationship (VPR) — Institutional Read
What stands out
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The final leg into 12.50 is displacement (strong directional push).
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Volume expanded on the breakout leg (effort confirms demand).
But there’s a warning
The very top bar shows:
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A push into 12.50
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Followed by a close at 12.38 (below high)
This is not bearish by itself, but it is consistent with:
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profit-taking into breakout liquidity
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early supply appearing at a psychological + structural extreme
If the next 2–5 bars show:
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high volume + narrow real bodies
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repeated failure to close above 12.50
That becomes classic distribution-at-the-high behavior.
4) Institutional Footprints (SMC / Wyckoff logic)
Liquidity zones
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12.50 is an obvious liquidity magnet:
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round-ish level
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new high
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breakout traders pile in
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shorts cover
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That makes it a perfect area for smart money to sell into.
Likely order blocks
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The last red candle before the vertical pump (around 11.0–11.2) is a bullish order block.
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If price pulls back, that’s where “real buyers” usually defend.
Fair Value Gap (FVG)
The vertical move likely created inefficiency between:
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~11.50 → 12.00+
Meaning price often revisits that area later to “rebalance.”
5) Bar-by-Bar Read (last ~15–25 bars)
Phase A: Tight compression (pre-breakout)
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Small-bodied candles
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Controlled grind
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Low volatility
This is professional accumulation / controlled markup, not retail mania.
Phase B: Breakout ignition
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Wide-range green candles
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Follow-through
This is institutional displacement.
Phase C: First rejection signal
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Push to 12.50 then close at 12.38
This is the first bar that says:
“Supply is now willing to show up.”
Not a reversal yet — but the tone changed.
6) Key Levels (actionable)
Immediate resistance (supply)
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12.50 (current swing high, breakout cap)
Immediate support (must-hold to stay bullish)
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12.00 (psych + breakout area)
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11.60–11.80 (likely first demand zone / retest area)
Deeper institutional support (high-probability defense)
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11.00–11.20 (origin zone of the displacement leg)
7) High-Probability Setups (Risk-Adjusted)
Setup 1 — “Breakout acceptance” (momentum continuation)
Bull case condition:
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Close above 12.50
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Followed by another close holding above it (no instant dump)
Risk: high (late-stage breakout)
Reward: can run hard, but often short-lived
Setup 2 — “Retest buy” (highest quality)
Best institutional-style entry:
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Pullback into 12.00 → 11.60
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Volume dries up on pullback
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Then a strong reversal bar (demand returns)
This is the cleanest risk-defined trade.
Setup 3 — “Exhaustion fade” (advanced)
If you see:
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multiple wide green bars
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then a huge volume bar with a weak close
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then breakdown below 12.00
That becomes a distribution top setup.
(But you need confirmation — don’t front-run it.)
8) Forward Bias + What to Watch Next
Bias (next 1–3 weeks)
Bullish but late-stage.
The trend is still intact, but probability of a sharp pullback is rising.
3 highest-conviction things to watch
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Does 12.50 get accepted or rejected repeatedly?
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Does 12.00 hold on the first real pullback?
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Does volume dry up on pullback (bullish) or expand (bearish)?
Final Institutional Summary
Keppel is in a strong markup trend, and the breakout leg into 12.50 is real demand, not random noise. However, the move is now extended, and the first bar showing selling into the high has appeared. The best edge is no longer chasing; it’s waiting for a controlled retest into 12.00/11.60 with volume contraction.
Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.
Dividend: 2.75%
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