Credit Bureau Asia - 22 Dec 2025

• Stock: Credit Bureau Asia Limited

• Ticker: SGX: TCU

• Timeframe: Daily (1D)

• Date Range: ~Apr 2025 – 19 Dec 2025

• Approx. Bars: ~170–180 daily bars

• Last Traded Price: 1.27

---

1. Market Regime Classification (Lead)

Transition → Late Distribution → Early Stabilisation

• Prior range / distribution from ~1.32–1.40

• Clear structural breakdown into lower highs

• Recent bars show selling pressure slowing, but no confirmed trend reversal yet

---

2. Market Structure & Order Flow Analysis

Macro Structure

• Swing Highs (SH):

  • ~1.40 (May)

  • ~1.42 (Aug, Sep – equal highs → distribution)

  • ~1.39 (Oct – lower high)

• Swing Lows (SL):

  • ~1.27–1.28 (Jun / Jul)

  • ~1.28 (Aug)

  • 1.24 (Nov – decisive breakdown)

➡️ Structure transitioned from range-bound → lower highs + lower lows
➡️ Bearish BOS confirmed in early Nov when 1.28 support failed.

CHoCH Assessment

• Current price (~1.27) is attempting to reclaim prior broken support

• No bullish CHoCH yet — price still below last lower high (~1.33)

---

3. Volume–Price Relationship (VPR)

Key Observations

• Nov sell-off:

  • High volume + wide-range down bar → institutional distribution / forced liquidation

• Post-breakdown (late Nov–Dec):

  • Volume contracts

  • Down bars show smaller real bodies

  • Several high-volume, small-range bars near 1.24–1.26

➡️ Effort vs. Result divergence
➡️ Selling effort no longer producing downside → absorption likely

---

4. Institutional Footprints & Smart Money Behavior

Liquidity & Traps

• False downside continuation below 1.24

  • Long lower wicks

  • Immediate snap-back

  • Indicates sell-stop harvesting

Accumulation Characteristics (Early, Not Confirmed)

• Tight clustering between 1.24–1.27

• Repeated failure to push lower despite tests

• Suggests passive demand absorbing supply

⚠️ This is early accumulation behavior, not confirmation.

---

5. Bar Pattern & Microstructure Analysis

Notable Bar Signals

• Nov capitulation bar:

  • Wide range, volume spike → potential selling climax

• Recent recovery bar (1.25 → 1.27):

  • Bullish close

  • Follow-through still weak

• Multiple spinning tops / small bodies:

  • Indicates balance state, not momentum

➡️ Market is pausing, not trending.

---

6. Key Supply / Demand Zones

Demand (Buy-Side Interest)

• 1.24–1.26:

  • Repeated absorption

  • Structural + volume confluence

  • Critical “line in the sand”

Supply (Overhead)

• 1.32–1.33:

  • Prior breakdown level

  • Heavy supply expected

• 1.38–1.40:

  • Major distribution ceiling (HTF)

---

7. Risk-Adjusted Setup Mapping (Technical Only)

Long-Side (Speculative, Mean-Reversion)

• Entry Zone: 1.24–1.26 (only on rejection / absorption)

• Invalidation: Clean daily close < 1.23

• Initial Target: 1.32

• Extended Target: 1.38

• R:R: ~1:2.5 to 1:4

⚠️ Counter-trend — position size must reflect that.

Short-Side (If Supply Reasserts)

• Rejection Zone: 1.32–1.33

• Stop: Above 1.36

• Target: 1.25 → 1.24

---

8. Higher-Timeframe Confluence (Inferred)

• Daily aligns with distribution-to-basing transition

• Weekly likely still range-bound, not trending

• No HTF bullish alignment yet → rallies likely corrective until proven otherwise

---

9. Highest-Conviction Observations (Summary)

1. Distribution completed between 1.38–1.42

2. Bearish BOS in Nov confirmed institutional exit

3. Strong absorption at 1.24–1.26

4. Momentum decay on sell-side (effort vs result)

5. Current move is repair / basing, not trend reversal

---

10. Forward-Looking Bias & Levels to Watch

Bias

• Neutral → cautiously constructive while above 1.24

• Becomes bullish only on CHoCH above 1.33

Critical Levels

• 1.24: Structural demand / invalidation

• 1.27: Balance pivot

• 1.32–1.33: Decision zone (trend validation)

• 1.38+: Major supply

---

Final Assessment

TCU is no longer in aggressive distribution, but not yet trending.
The market is transitioning into a balanced, accumulation-attempt phase.
Patience and confirmation over prediction is required — this is a positioning zone, not a breakout environment.

Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

Dividend:   3.15%