UMS - 29 Jan 2026

📊 Chart Setup & Context

Stock: UMS Integration Limited (SGX: 558)
Timeframe: Daily (1D)
Date Range: ~Jun 2025 – 29 Jan 2026
Bars Analyzed: ~160 trading sessions
Last Traded Price: SGD 1.33
Recent High: SGD 1.35
Recent Low (swing): SGD 1.03

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🧭 1. Market Regime Classification (Lead With Regime)

Primary Regime: Trending (Bullish, late-stage expansion)
Sub-Regime: Transitioning from markup → consolidation under resistance

Key characteristics:

• Clear higher highs (HH) & higher lows (HL) since Dec

• Strong displacement move from ~1.10 → 1.30+

• Current price compressing beneath prior highs (1.35) → potential continuation or bull-trap zone

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🧱 2. Market Structure & Order Flow

Macro Structure (Daily)

• Higher-Low sequence intact:

  • HL: 1.03 → 1.06 → 1.10 → 1.26

• Break of Structure (BOS):

  • BOS above 1.20 (Nov swing high) → confirmed trend reversal from prior range

• No confirmed CHoCH yet — trend still intact

➡️ Structural Bias: Bullish unless 1.26 fails on a closing basis

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Micro Structure (Last ~20 bars)

• Strong impulse into 1.30–1.35

• Followed by tight overlapping candles

• Upper wicks near 1.35 → supply present but not dominant

This is compression under resistance, not rejection (yet).

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📦 3. Volume-Price Relationship (VPR)

Key Observations

1. Breakout Leg (1.15 → 1.30)

   • Expanding volume + wide range candles

   • = Professional participation / displacement

2. Recent Bars near 1.33–1.35

   • Volume elevated but price progress muted

   • Several high-volume, small-range bars

   • = Absorption, not distribution

3. No Climactic Blow-Off

   • No extreme volume spike with immediate reversal

   • Suggests institutions not exiting aggressively

➡️ Effort vs Result: High effort, low downside result = bullish absorption

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🏦 4. Institutional Footprints & Smart Money Concepts

✔ Confirmed

• Order Block (Demand):

  • ~1.24–1.26

  • Last bearish cluster before impulsive rally

• Displacement Move:

  • Clean, fast move through 1.20 → institutional intent

• Liquidity Pool:

  • Equal highs / visible stops above 1.35

⏳ Developing

• Potential FVG:

  • ~1.18–1.22 (thin trading during impulse)

  • Only relevant if deeper pullback occurs

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🕯️ 5. Bar Pattern & Candle Diagnostics

Near-Term Bars

• Multiple small-body candles near highs

• Upper wicks but no bearish engulfing

• No outside bearish bar yet

➡️ This is pause / digestion, not reversal.

What would change bias?

• A bearish outside bar closing below 1.26

• Or high-volume rejection from 1.35 with follow-through

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🧠 6. Psychological & Reference Levels

Level	Significance
1.35	Prior high + liquidity
1.30	Round number, short-term balance
1.26	Structural HL + demand
1.20	Major BOS level
1.10	Prior accumulation base

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🎯 7. High-Probability Trade Zones (Risk-Adjusted)

📌 Primary Long (Trend Continuation)

• Entry Zone: 1.26–1.28 (pullback into demand)

• Invalidation: Daily close < 1.24

• Targets:

  • T1: 1.35

  • T2: 1.42–1.45 (measured move)

• R:R: ~1:3+

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📌 Secondary Long (Breakout Acceptance)

• Trigger: Daily close > 1.36 with volume expansion

• Stop: Back below 1.32

• Target: 1.45+

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⚠️ What to Avoid

• Chasing inside 1.32–1.35 without confirmation
  → poor R:R, liquidity hunt risk

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🔄 8. Multi-Timeframe Confluence (Inference)

• Daily trend aligns with likely weekly HL

• No HTF resistance overhead (post-breakout territory)

• Favors buy-the-dip, not fade-the-high

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🧩 9. Top 5 Highest-Conviction Observations

1. Clear bullish BOS above 1.20

2. Absorption under 1.35, not distribution

3. Compression = energy build-up

4. Clean demand zone at 1.26

5. No structural or volume-based reversal signal yet

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🔮 10. Forward-Looking Bias & Key Levels

Bias: Bullish continuation, conditional
Bullish while: Price holds ≥ 1.26
Acceleration trigger: Acceptance above 1.35
Caution trigger: High-volume rejection + close < 1.26

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Bottom Line (Institutional Lens)

This is a healthy trend pause after displacement, not exhaustion. The market is deciding how, not whether, to resolve. Let price come to you—either into demand (1.26) or through acceptance above liquidity (1.35).

Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

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