Old Chang Kee - 01 Aug 25

• Stock Name: Old Chang Kee

• Ticker: SGX: 5ML

• Timeframe: Daily

• Date Range Analyzed: Oct 2024 – 01 Aug 2025

• Bars Analyzed: ~210 (10 months)

• Last Traded Price: 1.07 SGD

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🔄 1. MARKET STRUCTURE & ORDER FLOW ANALYSIS

• Trend Structure:

  • Macro structure: Transitioned from sideways to uptrend beginning April 2025.

  • Key Swing Lows (SL): 0.77 (Dec), 0.78 (Mar), 0.94 (Jul).

  • Key Swing Highs (SH): 0.83 (Nov), 0.97 (May), 1.17 (Jul).

  • Break of Structure (BOS): Occurred above 0.97 with volume expansion in July — strong bullish confirmation.

  • Current Phase: Minor pullback after parabolic leg up — early transition signs or healthy correction.

• Trend Momentum:

  • July surge had large candles with higher highs and minimal retracement — clean displacement.

  • Last three bars: momentum decay, with overlapping bars and sharp retrace from 1.17 to 1.07 (approx. -8.5%).

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📈 2. ADVANCED VOLUME-PRICE RELATIONSHIP (VPR)

• Volume Signatures:

  • Climactic Volume (Jul 30–Aug 1): Wide range down bar on Aug 1 with the highest volume on chart → potential exhaustion or institutional exit.

  • Low Volume + Uptrend (May–Jun): Sustained trend without strong buying volume → passive absorption phase.

• Volume Clusters:

  • May 2025 breakout above 0.94 had moderate volume and follow-through → legitimate breakout.

  • Massive volume surge last 3 sessions with downward bar suggests institutional unloading or retail panic.

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🧠 3. INSTITUTIONAL FOOTPRINTS

• Order Blocks & Liquidity Grabs:

  • Final bullish candle before July drop likely marks an order block zone near 1.15–1.17.

  • Price pierced into psychological 1.20 area but rejected violently → liquidity grab followed by reversal.

• Displacement & FVG:

  • Strong displacement move from 1.00 → 1.17 shows institutional power.

  • FVG formed between 1.04–1.10; currently price is retracing into this inefficiency.

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🔄 4. BAR PATTERN RECOGNITION

• Reversal Bars:

  • Aug 1: Large bearish engulfing with highest volume in months → institutional profit-taking or panic dump.

  • Jul 30: Shooting star rejection bar with upper wick — signals buyer exhaustion.

• Continuation Patterns:

  • Bullish flag breakout (late June to mid-July) led to recent upthrust.

  • Measured move from 0.94–1.05 = 0.11 → projected target of ~1.17 (met before rejection).

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🧭 5. MULTI-TIMEFRAME CONFLUENCE

• Weekly Chart Bias (not shown): Likely bullish but extended; price moving into potential supply zone.

• Daily & Weekly Compression Zone: 1.05–1.10 acts as multi-timeframe decision cluster.

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💰 6. PSYCHOLOGICAL LEVELS & STRUCTURAL ZONES

• Key Psychological Levels:

  • 1.00 (round number + prior resistance now support)

  • 1.10–1.20: Institutional trap zone

  • 0.94: Former resistance, now potential support if retracement deepens

• ATR Consideration:

  • Recent bars exceed normal range → volatility expansion; not sustainable long-term without cooling off.

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📉 7. MARKET REGIME CLASSIFICATION

• Current Regime: Transitioning from strong uptrend to correction/possible distribution

  • High volatility, rejection wicks, wide-body reversals = classic signs of topping action.

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⚠️ 8. RISK-ADJUSTED SETUP

• Bias: Short-term bearish retracement toward 1.00–0.98 before potential stabilization.

• Stop Zone: Above 1.15 (structure high)

• Target Zone: 0.98 (previous breakout base + FVG)

• R/R Ratio: ~1:2.5 for short-term swing if executed from 1.07

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🔚 TRADE SUMMARY SENTENCE

Selling SGX:5ML because of climactic volume and bearish engulfing bar post-parabolic extension with stops at 1.15 targeting 0.98 for 1:2.5 risk-reward.
Confidence Rating: 8/10
Key Levels to Watch: 1.15 (resistance), 1.00 (support), 0.94 (critical demand zone)

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📋 Execution Checklist Before Entry:

• Confirm trend break on lower timeframes (e.g., 1H or 4H structure BOS)

• Watch volume behavior near 1.00 — absorption vs. rejection

• Ensure no upcoming catalysts (e.g., earnings) within 3–5 days

• Use partial profit strategy into 1.00 zone

Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

Dividend:  1.87%