Union Gas - 20 Jan 2026

Union Gas Holdings Ltd (SGX: 1F2)

Timeframe: Daily (1D)
Analysis Period: May 2025 – Jan 2026 (~170 trading bars)
Last Traded Price: ~0.365 SGD
Observed High / Low (period): ~0.555 / ~0.300

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1. Market Regime Classification (Lead)

Current Regime: Post-Distribution → Low-Volatility Range / Drift Lower

• The stock has transitioned from a distributional top into a prolonged compression range.

• Volatility and participation have collapsed materially, signaling institutional disengagement, not accumulation.

• Market behavior is rotational / capital-parking, not trend-seeking.

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2. Macro Market Structure & Order Flow

Primary Structure Mapping

• Major Swing Low (SL): ~0.300 (May base)

• Impulse Swing High (SH): ~0.555 (early Aug spike)

• Structural Failure Zone: 0.415–0.395

• Current Range Floor: 0.355–0.365

Key Structural Events

1. Impulse Break (May → Aug)

   • Strong vertical markup from ~0.32 → 0.55

   • Wide-range bullish bars + volume expansion

   • Displacement move (institutional re-pricing)

2. Climactic High & Distribution (Early Aug)

   • Ultra-wide range bars with climactic volume

   • Immediate rejection from 0.55

   • Classic buying climax → supply overwhelm

3. Change of Character (CHoCH)

   • Failure to hold above 0.415

   • First lower high + weak bounce

   • Structural shift from trend → range

4. Confirmed Range Acceptance (Sep–Jan)

   • Overlapping candles

   • Shrinking bar ranges

   • Multiple failed upside attempts

➡️ Conclusion: Trend structure is broken. Market is accepting lower value.

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3. Advanced Volume-Price Relationship (VPR)

Critical Observations

• Aug High:

  • High volume + extreme range → professional unloading

• Post-Aug Decline:

  • Rising volume, falling price → distribution confirmation

• Recent Months:

  • Low volume + small bodies → lack of sponsorship

  • No volume expansion on upticks → no accumulation signal

Effort vs Result

• Multiple bars show effort (volume) with no upside result

• Indicates absorption by supply, not demand dominance

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4. Institutional Footprint & Smart Money Concepts

Liquidity Events

• Liquidity Grab Above 0.40–0.42

  • Stops triggered

  • Immediate rejection

  • No follow-through

Order Block Analysis

• Primary Supply OB: 0.415–0.435

  • Last bearish impulse before sharp sell-off

• Demand Zones:

  • Weak, untested, low-quality around 0.35–0.36

Wyckoff Interpretation

• Phase A–B: Accumulation (May–Jun)

• Phase C: Markup + Buying Climax (Aug)

• Phase D–E: Distribution → Markdown drift

➡️ Current price is post-distribution re-equilibration, not re-accumulation.

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5. Bar Pattern & Microstructure Analysis

Reversal & Exhaustion

• Aug peak shows:

  • Wide bearish engulfing

  • Long upper wicks

  • Volume climax → terminal action

Continuation / Indecision

• Repeated inside-bar clusters from Oct onward

• Indicates energy compression, but no directional bias

Absence of Strength

• No bullish engulfing with volume

• No demand-led expansion bars

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6. Psychological & Structural Levels

Level	Interpretation
0.555	Absolute distribution high
0.415–0.395	Institutional supply / failed breakout
0.385	Range midpoint / acceptance
0.365	Current balance price
0.350–0.355	Weak range support
0.300	Only proven demand (major SL)

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7. Multi-Timeframe Confluence

• Daily: Range-bound, weak participation

• Higher TF Bias (Weekly inferred):

  • Failed breakout → lower value acceptance

• No timeframe alignment for bullish continuation

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8. Risk-Adjusted Trade Framework

High-Probability Zones

Long Bias (Speculative, NOT trend-based):

• Only near 0.30–0.32

• Requires:

  • Volume expansion

  • Demand bar with follow-through

Short / Supply Rejection:

• 0.395–0.415

• Only valid if:

  • Rejection wick

  • Volume spike without close above level

Risk Management

• Stops must be structural, not percentage-based

• R:R only valid near range extremes, not mid-range

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9. Highest-Conviction Observations (3–5 Key Points)

1. Aug 2025 was a textbook institutional distribution top

2. Every rally since has been absorbed by supply

3. Volume has structurally exited the stock

4. Current price reflects balance, not accumulation

5. Retail chop zone – low expectancy for trend trades

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10. Forward-Looking Bias & Key Levels

Bias:
➡️ Neutral-to-Bearish / Capital-Rotation Candidate

Watchlist Triggers:

• Bullish only if:

  • Reclaim & hold above 0.415 with volume

• Bearish continuation if:

  • Clean breakdown below 0.350 → opens path to 0.300

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Final Institutional Summary

This is not a trending market. Union Gas Holdings (1F2) is in a post-distribution equilibrium, dominated by low liquidity, low conviction, and supply-side control. The chart currently offers no asymmetric edge unless price reaches structural extremes with confirming volume.

Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

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