Stock: Hour Glass Ltd (SGX: AGS)
Timeframe: Daily (1D)
Date Range: February 2025 – October 2025 (~170 trading bars)
Last Traded Price: SGD 2.10
Recent High/Low Range: 2.15 / 1.44
1. Market Structure & Order Flow Analysis
Trend Structure:
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Primary Structure: Clear uptrend from May 2025 (low 1.44) to current 2.10.
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Swing Lows (SL): 1.44 → 1.57 → 1.85 → 1.89 (higher lows confirming trend).
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Swing Highs (SH): 1.63 → 2.09 → 2.15 (consistent higher highs).
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Change of Character (CHoCH): None observed yet; current structure intact.
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Momentum: Slight deceleration post-2.15 high — overlapping candles suggest mild absorption or distribution.
Order Flow Notes:
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Demand clearly dominated between 1.44–1.90 (multiple rejections from lows with bullish follow-through).
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Supply pressure now present at 2.10–2.15 zone (cluster of upper wicks).
2. Advanced Volume-Price Relationship (VPR) Analysis
Volume Signature:
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Rising volume in May–July uptrend = institutional accumulation.
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Declining volume during August pullback = healthy retracement.
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Recent low-to-mid volume rise toward 2.10 → Possible absorption phase under resistance (smart money testing liquidity).
Key Observations:
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High Volume + Small Range (Sep 2025) → absorption of selling near 1.89 (likely institutional demand).
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Volume Dry-Up below 2.00 → prepping for next impulsive move.
3. Institutional Footprint Recognition
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Liquidity Grab: Sharp dip to 1.44 in April was a liquidity sweep of early-year lows — textbook smart money accumulation signal.
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Order Block Zone: 1.85–1.90 region marks last bearish candle before major bullish displacement → key demand zone.
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Fair Value Gap (FVG): Exists between 1.95–2.00 — may act as magnet on retracements.
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Displacement: Strong bullish impulsive bars in June–July show professional participation.
4. Bar Pattern Recognition
Recent Candlestick Dynamics:
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Post-2.15, two large upper-wick bars → signs of profit-taking or stop hunts.
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Latest bar (Oct 8): narrow-bodied bar near resistance = indecision/absorption.
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No reversal confirmation yet; still structurally bullish unless 2.00 breaks.
5. Multi-Timeframe Confluence
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Weekly Structure: Confirmed bullish with rising swing lows since early 2025.
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Daily Compression: Current tight range (2.00–2.15) likely forming bullish continuation flag.
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Break above 2.15 on volume would align both weekly and daily trend bias upward.
6. Psychological & Technical Levels
| Level | Type | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| 2.15 | Key Resistance | Recent swing high; breakout trigger |
| 2.00 | Psychological Level | Minor support; potential retest zone |
| 1.89 | Structural Support | Institutional order block |
| 1.44 | Major Support | Prior accumulation base |
7. Risk-Adjusted Setup Identification
Potential Long Setup:
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Entry Zone: 2.05–2.10 (on retest or confirmed breakout)
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Stop Loss: Below 1.89 (structural support)
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Targets: 2.25 (initial), 2.40 (measured move projection)
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Risk–Reward Ratio: ≈ 1:2.5 if managed correctly
Invalidation: Daily close below 1.89 shifts bias to neutral-to-bearish.
8. Market Regime Classification
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Regime: Trending with mild consolidation.
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Behavior: Healthy bullish continuation after accumulation; temporary supply overhead.
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Volatility: Normalizing; ideal for swing setups.
9. Institutional Supply/Demand Summary
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Demand Zones: 1.85–1.90 (active institutional footprint)
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Supply Zones: 2.10–2.15 (short-term liquidity ceiling)
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Effort vs Result: High effort (volume) with small candle ranges → accumulation ongoing.
🎯 Summary & Forward Bias
Bias: Moderately Bullish (Accumulation-Continuation Phase)
Key Observation: Market absorbing supply below 2.15; probability favors breakout continuation if volume expands.
High-Probability Action Zone: 2.05–2.15 (breakout re-entry or retest).
🧾 Trade Summary
Buying AGS because price is consolidating under key resistance (2.15) with absorption volume, indicating institutional accumulation,
with stops at 1.89, targeting 2.25–2.40 for a 1:2.5 risk-reward ratio.
Confidence Rating: 8/10
✅ Pre-Execution Checklist
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Confirm breakout candle closes >2.15 on increased volume
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Ensure risk ≤ 2% of equity per position
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Watch 1.89 demand zone for invalidation
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Align trade with weekly trend direction
Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.
Dividend: 3.81%
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