Hong Leong Asia - 10 Oct 2025

• Stock: Hong Leong Asia Ltd. (SGX: H22)

• Timeframe: 1D (Daily)

• Date Range: February 2025 – October 2025

• Bars in Analysis: ~180

• Last Traded Price: SGD 2.62 (−4.38%)

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1. Market Structure & Order Flow Analysis

• Trend Structure:

  • Major swing lows: 1.00 → 0.91 → 1.04 → 1.15 → 1.61 → 2.33

  • Major swing highs: 1.28 → 1.13 → 2.64 → 2.79 (recent high)

  • Strong bullish structure: consistent higher highs and higher lows from May onward.

  • Break of Structure (BOS): Confirmed above 1.61 (July), initiating an accelerated uptrend.

  • Change of Character (CHoCH): Potential short-term CHoCH below 2.62 if further downside follows today's large bearish bar.

• Momentum Assessment:

  • The impulsive leg 2.33 → 2.79 was vertical with minimal retracement → indicative of strong institutional participation.

  • The last 2 sessions show range contraction and heavy volume → momentum decay, possible profit-taking or short-term distribution.

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2. Volume–Price Relationship (VPR) Analysis

• Volume Expansion: Noticeable volume spike in August–September rally → institutional push.

• Current Volume Signature:

  • High volume + small range near 2.64–2.79 = absorption (institutions unloading to late buyers).

  • Recent red bar (Oct 10) shows high volume + wide range down = professional selling / profit distribution.

• Volume Divergence: Price made new highs (2.79) but volume declined → loss of demand at highs.

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3. Institutional Footprint Recognition

• Liquidity Grab: Minor stop run above 2.64 into 2.79 zone — likely a liquidity sweep targeting breakout traders before a pullback.

• Order Block (OB): Bullish OB sits near 2.33–2.40, last down bar before strong up move. Expect buyers defending this zone.

• Fair Value Gap (FVG): Between 2.45–2.55, a likely magnet for price retest.

• Displacement Move: Sharp upward displacement from 2.33 → 2.79 confirms institutional aggression.

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4. Bar Pattern Recognition

• Recent Bar (Oct 10):

  • Wide red candle, closing near low → bearish engulfing of prior day → short-term control by sellers.

  • Volume confirmation: Elevated → professional distribution.

• Earlier Context: Small-bodied bars (late September) → volatility compression before breakout → typical pre-distribution structure.

• Expect retest of 2.45–2.50 zone for continuation validation.

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5. Multi-Timeframe Confluence

• Weekly: Still strongly bullish; however, extended above mean levels → needs consolidation.

• Daily: Showing first structural weakness after steep advance.

• 4H: Likely forming early lower high structure — watch for CHoCH confirmation under 2.55.

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6. Psychological Level Integration

• Key psychological levels:

  • 2.50 = short-term pivot / equilibrium zone

  • 2.00 = prior resistance now long-term support

  • 3.00 = psychological round number resistance if uptrend resumes

• ATR suggests normal pullback range ≈ 0.15–0.25, putting 2.40 as natural retracement target.

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7. Risk-Adjusted Setup Identification

• High-Probability Zone: 2.33–2.45 (bullish reaccumulation possible)

• Invalidation / Stop: Below 2.30 (structural break)

• Targets: 2.75 (retest high), 2.90 (measured move extension)

• R:R: ≈ 1:3 from 2.40 entry to 2.90 target

• Alternate Scenario: Failure to hold 2.33 → breakdown toward 2.10 liquidity pool.

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8. Market Regime Classification

• Current Regime: Transitioning from trending → distribution phase.

• Signs:

  • Increasing volatility

  • Bearish engulfing on high volume

  • Momentum deceleration

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9. Institutional Supply/Demand Analysis

• Demand Zone: 2.33–2.45 (accumulation footprint)

• Supply Zone: 2.75–2.80 (liquidity sweep / distribution)

• Effort vs. Result: High effort up (volume) with diminishing result (range) = absorption at highs → warning of near-term correction.

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📊 Forward Bias & Key Levels

Type	Level (SGD)	Interpretation
Resistance	2.79	Swing high / liquidity sweep
Intermediate Resistance	2.64	Former high / potential retest zone
Support	2.45–2.50	FVG + demand confluence
Structural Support	2.33	Last OB
Invalid Level	2.30	Structural break → bearish bias below

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✅ Trade Summary

Buying H22 on retracement toward 2.40–2.45 zone because of institutional demand footprint (order block + FVG confluence), with stops at 2.30, targeting 2.90 for a 1:3 risk–reward ratio.
Confidence: 7.5 / 10

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⚠️ Pre-Execution Checklist:

• Confirm volume tapering during pullback

• Wait for bullish reversal confirmation bar near 2.40

• Avoid chasing above 2.65 unless volume re-expands

• Check for pending company announcements

Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

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