Stock: CapitaLand China Trust (SGX: AU8U)
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Timeframe: Daily (1D)
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Date Range: February 2025 – October 2025
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Bars in Analysis Period: ~170 trading sessions
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Last Traded Price: 0.795 SGD
1. Market Structure & Order Flow Analysis
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Trend Identification:
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Strong downtrend from Feb–Apr (0.73 → 0.56), followed by a higher low structure from April onwards, signaling a structural reversal.
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Swing Lows (SL): 0.56 → 0.665 → 0.715 → 0.755
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Swing Highs (SH): 0.73 → 0.795 → 0.815
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The market has transitioned from accumulation to early markup phase.
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Break of Structure (BOS): Occurred around 0.70 in late June, confirming bullish shift.
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Momentum Observation: Recent bar overlaps and smaller body sizes near 0.795 indicate momentum slowdown and potential short-term distribution.
2. Volume-Price Relationship (VPR) Analysis
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Volume Expansion: Strong volume spikes near 0.56 and 0.665 lows indicate institutional absorption (smart money buying into panic selling).
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Volume Dry-Up: During August’s sideways consolidation between 0.755–0.815, low volume suggests accumulation beneath resistance.
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Breakout Volume: The latest upswing toward 0.815 came with moderate volume—not climactic—suggesting controlled institutional participation, not a retail breakout.
3. Institutional Footprint Recognition
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Liquidity Grabs: Sharp dip to 0.56 in April was a clear liquidity sweep, trapping late sellers before reversal.
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Order Blocks:
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Bullish OB: 0.665–0.715 (last bearish candle before strong rally in July).
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Bearish OB: 0.815–0.795 (previous rejection zone).
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Fair Value Gaps (FVG): Small inefficiency observed between 0.755–0.770 (may act as support retest area).
4. Bar Pattern Recognition
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Recent Candles: Multiple small-bodied bars with upper wicks near 0.795 → indicates supply absorption and indecision.
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No clear reversal bar yet, but if a strong bullish engulfing appears above 0.815 with volume expansion, it will confirm breakout continuation.
5. Multi-Timeframe Confluence
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Weekly Chart Bias: Likely transitioning from long-term downtrend into early uptrend.
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Daily Alignment: Consolidation within bullish structure.
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Conclusion: Multi-timeframe confluence favors bullish continuation, but only upon clean break of 0.815 resistance.
6. Psychological Levels & Key References
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Key Support: 0.755 → prior swing low and order block.
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Key Resistance: 0.815 → last rejection level and double-top area.
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Psychological Zone: 0.800 → equilibrium zone; a sustained close above this is bullish confirmation.
7. Market Regime Classification
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Current Regime: Transitional (Range-to-Trend Shift)
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Range tightening between 0.755–0.815
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Volume contracting—typical before breakout
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Volatility compression visible through smaller daily candles
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8. Risk-Adjusted Setup Identification
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Preferred Entry Zone: 0.790–0.800 (support retest or volume breakout confirmation)
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Stop Placement: Below 0.755 (beneath structure and FVG zone)
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Target Zone: 0.840–0.860 (measured move projection from range width ~0.06)
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Risk-Reward Ratio: ~1:2.5
9. Institutional Supply/Demand Context
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Demand Zone: 0.665–0.715 (institutional buying footprint evident)
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Supply Zone: 0.815–0.840 (clustered profit-taking area)
🎯 Forward-Looking Summary
Market Bias: Bullish but cautious near resistance
Confirmation Trigger: Daily close above 0.815 with 2× average volume
Invalidation: Close below 0.755
📊 Trade Summary
Buying AU8U because price is consolidating in a bullish structure under resistance with volume absorption signals, with stops at 0.755, targeting 0.850 for a 1:2.5 R:R ratio.
Confidence Rating: 7.5/10
Key Levels: Support 0.755 / Resistance 0.815 / Target 0.850
Execution Checklist Before Trade:
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Confirm breakout with volume > 2× 20-day average
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Ensure daily close above 0.815
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Manage risk per position sizing plan
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Monitor weekly candle confirmation
Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.
Dividend: 7.17%
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