Stock Name: Phillip Legacy Funds – Phillip SING Income ETF Units
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Ticker Symbol: OVQ.SI
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Exchange: SGX (Singapore Exchange)
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Timeframe: Daily (1D)
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Date Range: Jan 2025 – Oct 2025 (~10 months)
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Number of bars: ~190 trading sessions
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Last traded price: 1.430 SGD (+1.35% daily gain)
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Highest level (period): 1.485
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Lowest level (period): 1.070
1️⃣ Market Structure & Order Flow Analysis
Trend Structure:
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Series of higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL) from March → September, indicating primary bullish structure.
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Key swing lows (SL): 1.103 (Apr), 1.325 (Jul).
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Key swing highs (SH): 1.366 (May), 1.485 (Sep).
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Current market regime: trending to transitional (slowing upward momentum near resistance).
Break of Structure (BOS) & CHoCH:
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BOS Up confirmed in May (above 1.366).
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CHoCH warning in mid-Sep (failure to sustain above 1.485 → pullback to 1.40).
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Price now retesting prior resistance (1.43) from below, acting as short-term decision zone.
Trend Momentum Decay:
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Decreasing bar ranges since September.
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More overlapping candles → momentum compression and potential range development.
2️⃣ Advanced Volume–Price Relationship (VPR)
Volume Signature:
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Low-to-moderate volume during August–October advance → institutional hold, not aggressive push.
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Volume spikes observed at:
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Mid-March (1.32 bar) → accumulation confirmation.
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Mid-Sep (1.485 spike) → climactic buying → exhaustion + short-term top.
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Latest bars: mild volume uptick on Oct 3 close → absorption test near resistance.
Interpretation:
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Smart money likely absorbing supply near 1.43 after September shakeout.
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Lack of panic selling → suggests controlled reaccumulation, not distribution.
3️⃣ Institutional Footprint Recognition
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Liquidity Grab (Sep 19–23): wick above 1.485 → immediate rejection → textbook upthrust (UTAD) behavior.
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Order Block Zone: 1.395–1.410 → demand cluster from Aug breakout.
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Fair Value Gap (FVG): 1.36–1.38 → likely to be retested if rejection at 1.43 persists.
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Displacement Move: July–August advance shows clean institutional impulse (low overlap, smooth candles).
Wyckoff Context:
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Phase B → C transition within accumulation-to-markup model.
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Potential “Spring Test” in late September low (~1.40) confirming demand defense.
4️⃣ Bar Pattern Recognition (Recent 10 Bars)
| Date Range | Candle Type | Volume Behavior | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 23–25 | Wide bar down, then small body | Volume spike | Stop run + absorption |
| Sep 30–Oct 3 | Consecutive small body bars | Gradual increase | Quiet re-accumulation |
| Oct 3 | Bullish close 1.430 | Higher volume | Buyers absorbing supply at resistance |
Key Observation:
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Price showing compressive coil → breakout setup building.
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Absence of heavy rejection → no clear distribution yet.
5️⃣ Multi-Timeframe Confluence
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Weekly Chart (higher timeframe bias): still bullish; structure holding above 20-week mean.
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Daily: consolidation near local top → potential range (1.40–1.48) formation.
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Confluence of multi-timeframe support at 1.39–1.41 (previous order block).
6️⃣ Psychological & Structural Levels
| Level | Type | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| 1.500 | Round number | Major psychological resistance |
| 1.485 | Recent high | Key liquidity zone |
| 1.430 | Current price | Re-test level (resistance→support flip zone) |
| 1.395 | Prior consolidation | Institutional demand block |
| 1.325 | Swing low | Structural support (must hold) |
7️⃣ Risk-Adjusted Setup Mapping
Scenario A (Bullish Continuation):
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Entry: Above 1.440 confirmation (daily close)
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Stop: Below 1.395
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Target: 1.485 → 1.500
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R:R ≈ 1:2.3
Scenario B (Bearish Pullback):
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Rejection at 1.43–1.45, failure candle with volume expansion
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Entry: Below 1.415
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Stop: Above 1.455
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Target: 1.36 (FVG fill)
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R:R ≈ 1:2.5
8️⃣ Market Regime Classification
Current: Transitional (late-stage uptrend → range contraction phase).
Behavioral Signature:
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Tight volatility compression
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Balanced effort vs. result
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Institutional presence detected, no distribution evidence yet
🔍 Summary of Institutional Observations
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Uptrend remains intact but facing resistance at 1.43–1.48.
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Absorption volume pattern shows accumulation, not exhaustion.
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Liquidity grab at 1.485 likely cleared weak longs.
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FVG gap 1.36–1.38 remains untested (potential magnet if rejection occurs).
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Volume supports a potential springboard setup for re-expansion above 1.45.
🧩 Forward Bias & Key Levels
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Bullish Bias while holding above 1.395
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Watch 1.43 (immediate resistance test) and 1.48 (breakout validation zone)
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Breakdown below 1.39 would shift bias to neutral → corrective
✅ Trade Summary
Buying OVQ.SI because of institutional absorption near 1.43 within bullish structure, with stops at 1.395 targeting 1.485 for an estimated 1:2.3 risk-reward ratio.
Confidence Rating: 7.5 / 10
Key Levels: 1.395 (support), 1.430 (pivot), 1.485 (target/resistance).
Trader’s Pre-Execution Checklist
☑ Confirm volume expansion on breakout bar above 1.44
☑ Ensure clean close above resistance, not intrabar spike
☑ Monitor reaction to 1.485 — potential trap zone
☑ Review intraday volume delta before entry
Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.
Dividend: 3.29%
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