Delfi - 09 Oct 2025

Stock: Delfi Limited (SGX: P34)
Timeframe: 1D (Daily)
Date Range: Feb–Oct 2025 (~8 months, ~170 trading bars)
Last Traded Price: 0.860 SGD
Volume Context: Increasing in recent up-leg (Sept–Oct)

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1️⃣ Market Structure & Order Flow Analysis

• Trend Structure:

  • Swing Lows: 0.650 (Apr), 0.700 (May), 0.710 (Jul), 0.735 (Sep)

  • Swing Highs: 0.785 (Jun), 0.910 (Jul), 0.770 (Sep)

  • Current Market Structure: Recovering uptrend after multi-month range (0.70–0.80). Recent HH above 0.770 confirms Break of Structure (BOS).

  • Momentum: Strong impulsive expansion from 0.735 to 0.860 — wide bars, reduced overlap → institutional drive.

  • Change of Character (CHoCH): Bullish CHoCH occurred mid-Sept as price reclaimed 0.770 with expanding range.

• Institutional vs Retail Behavior:

  • May–July showed accumulation below 0.75; low volatility, tight spreads = absorption.

  • Sept breakout volume expanding = institutional re-entry.

  • Minor retail trap near 0.910 (July top) – retail breakout buyers trapped before decline.

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2️⃣ Volume–Price Relationship (VPR) Analysis

• Recent Leg: Volume expansion aligns with higher highs = healthy demand-driven move.

• Prior Decline (Aug): High volume, wide red bars → institutional distribution unloading into strength.

• Current Bars: Moderate–high volume, small upper wicks, closing near highs → controlled accumulation continuation.

• Volume Divergence: None visible yet; volume confirming advance.

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3️⃣ Institutional Footprint Recognition

• Liquidity Grab: False breakdown at 0.735 in early Sept (spring-type structure) → trapped shorts.

• Order Block (OB): 0.735–0.770 zone = last down bar before strong displacement up → bullish order block.

• Fair Value Gap (FVG): 0.795–0.815 (Sept) unfilled → potential retrace target if pullback occurs.

• Displacement: Sharp move mid-Sept shows institutional demand imbalance, clean directional push.

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4️⃣ Bar Pattern Recognition

• Reversal Bars:

  • April bottom at 0.650 formed classic hammer on high volume → exhaustion low.

  • July top at 0.910 – bearish engulfing with wide range → confirmed top.

• Continuation:

  • Current move showing 3-bar bullish sequence (closing near highs) → sustained buying pressure.

  • Possible flag consolidation may develop if 0.860–0.880 holds sideways.

• No indecision signals yet – momentum intact.

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5️⃣ Multi-Timeframe Confluence

• Weekly Bias: Bullish – reclaim of mid-range structure (0.80–0.85).

• Daily: Break of prior structure, price approaching resistance at 0.910.

• Confluence Zone: 0.770 = strong support across daily and weekly charts.

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6️⃣ Psychological Levels

• Round levels: 0.70, 0.80, 0.90 key psychological pivot zones.

• 0.90–0.91 resistance = prior swing high.

• ATR (14D): Approx. 0.025 – current move of 0.12 = extended, caution near resistance.

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7️⃣ Risk-Adjusted Setup Identification

• High-Probability Zone:

  • Buy Zone: 0.795–0.815 (potential pullback into FVG/OB).

  • Stop: below 0.770 (structural invalidation).

  • Target: 0.910, extension 0.935.

  • Risk/Reward ≈ 1:2.5.

• Trade Management: Scale out partial at 0.90; trail stop under higher lows.

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8️⃣ Market Regime Classification

• Regime: Transitioning from range → emerging uptrend.

• Characteristics: Expanding volume, higher lows, displacement bars = trend resumption phase.

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9️⃣ Institutional Supply/Demand Analysis

• Demand Zones: 0.735–0.770 (accumulation base).

• Supply Zones: 0.900–0.910 (prior distribution).

• Effort vs Result: Volume increasing with upward result → strong institutional effort, minimal absorption overhead yet.

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🔟 Comprehensive Market Context

• Sector: Consumer goods / confectionery – typically defensive, low beta.

• Relative Strength: Likely outperforming broader SGX index given structural resilience.

• Cyclical Context: Defensive rotation often precedes or coincides with late-cycle phases.

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🎯 Summary

Bias: Bullish continuation, but near resistance. Prefer pullback entry.
Key Levels:

• Support: 0.770 / 0.795

• Resistance: 0.910 / 0.935

• Invalidation: Below 0.770

Forward Outlook: If price consolidates above 0.84–0.85 with light volume, expect breakout attempt above 0.91. Breakdown below 0.80 negates bullish structure.

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🔹Trade Summary

Buying Delfi Limited (P34.SI) because price shows bullish structural breakout with institutional volume support with stops at 0.770 targeting 0.910–0.935 for ~1:2.5 R:R ratio.
Confidence Rating: 8/10
Checklist Before Execution:

• ✅ Confirm daily close above 0.85 (support hold)

• ✅ Volume remains supportive

• ✅ Market sentiment neutral-to-bullish

Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

Dividend:   4.88%