SembCorp Ind - 24 Oct 2025

• Stock Name: Sembcorp Industries Ltd.

• Ticker Symbol: U96.SI

• Exchange: SGX

• Timeframe: 1D (Daily)

• Analysis Period: Feb–Oct 2025 (~8 months / ~180 bars)

• Last Traded Price: SGD 6.46 (as of Fri, 24 Oct 2025)

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1️⃣ Market Structure & Order Flow

Trend Structure

• Primary structure: Uptrend from Feb (≈5.0) → Aug high (7.93).

• Break of Structure (BOS): Occurred early Aug – price broke below 7.11 swing low, confirming trend reversal to bearish.

• Change of Character (CHoCH): Visible between 7.93 → 6.20 breakdown → 5.95 retest.

• Recent development: Price now attempting a higher low (5.96) → higher high (6.55) → possible early uptrend reversion.

Momentum & Volatility

• Post-August collapse shows large-range bearish bars with heavy volume, suggesting institutional liquidation.

• Since mid-Sep: narrowing ranges and overlapping bars = momentum decay, consolidation zone (6.0–6.5).

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2️⃣ Advanced Volume–Price Relationship (VPR)

Volume Signature

• Aug crash (7.93 → 5.95): very high volume + wide range = panic + institutional repositioning.

• Sep–Oct: declining volume → absorption phase (strong hands accumulating).

• Recent 6.20–6.55 breakout attempt: moderate volume expansion → early breakout validation attempt.

Volume Divergence

• Despite minor new swing high (6.55 > 6.20), volume not confirming breakout → caution for potential false move.

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3️⃣ Institutional Footprints

• Liquidity grab: 7.93 top followed by immediate liquidation = stop-hunt + distribution climax.

• Order Block Zone: 6.20–6.50 region = last bullish imbalance pre-breakdown (now acting as supply zone).

• Accumulation signature: 5.90–6.00 region shows multiple small-body candles on decreasing volume = absorption zone.

• Fair Value Gap (FVG): 6.80–7.10 (unfilled inefficiency, potential magnet for price if breakout sustains).

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4️⃣ Bar Pattern Recognition

• Reversal evidence:

  • At 5.95–6.00: multiple hammer-like pin bars with long lower wicks → spring-type behavior.

• Continuation setup:

  • Inside bar cluster (6.20–6.40) forming tight consolidation before breakout attempt.

• Gap:

  • Sharp gap down from 7.9 to 6.2 on earnings (likely breakaway gap).

  • Gap has not been filled → overhead gap resistance until retest of ~6.8–7.0.

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5️⃣ Multi-Timeframe Confluence

• Weekly chart bias (higher timeframe): still in broad uptrend; current correction = mid-trend retracement (~38.2% of entire leg from 5.0 → 7.9).

• Daily chart: transitioning from bearish to neutral-to-bullish.

• Confluence: 6.0–6.1 = daily demand aligned with weekly 20 EMA → key buy zone for reaccumulation.

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6️⃣ Psychological & Structural Levels

Key Level	Type	Observation
7.00–7.10	Former support turned resistance	High-volume breakdown zone
6.50	Round number/structure cap	Testing as resistance
6.00	Psychological & structural support	Demand absorption area
5.95	Swing low	Key invalidation level
7.93	Major swing high	Long-term resistance

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7️⃣ Risk-Adjusted Setup Identification

High-Probability Zone:

• Entry region: 6.10–6.30 (on pullback into support).

• Stop: below 5.90 (recent swing low).

• Target 1: 6.80 (gap-fill zone).

• Target 2: 7.10 (upper FVG zone).

• R:R: approx. 1:3.

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8️⃣ Market Regime Classification

• Current regime: Transitioning from range-bound accumulation → potential trend resumption.

• Behavior: Narrow bars, declining volume, re-emerging higher lows → early trend reactivation phase.

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9️⃣ Institutional Supply/Demand Imbalance

• Demand Zone: 5.90–6.10 (tested twice, strong defense).

• Supply Zone: 6.50–6.70 (visible sell pressure & trapped longs).

• Effort vs. Result: Recent rallies showing modest progress despite volume uptick = absorption of remaining supply.

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🧭 Forward Bias & Key Levels

Bias	Level	Comment
Bullish above 6.55	Clears short-term supply zone	Opens path to 6.80–7.10
Neutral between 6.20–6.55	Accumulation range	Wait for breakout confirmation
Bearish below 5.95	Structure invalidation	Downside opens to 5.50–5.20

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🧩 Trade Summary

Buying Sembcorp Industries (U96.SI) because price is showing structural reaccumulation above 6.0 with higher lows and absorption volume, with stops at 5.90, targeting 6.80–7.10 for a 1:3 risk-reward ratio.
Confidence Rating: 7.5 / 10
Key Levels to Watch: 5.95 (support), 6.55 (resistance), 6.80–7.10 (target zone).

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Execution Checklist Before Trade:

• Confirm breakout with >20% volume expansion

• Place stop below structural low, not arbitrary %

• Avoid entry during major earnings week

• Monitor higher timeframe (weekly) candle close for confirmation

Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

Dividend:   3.56%