Stock: Pacific Century Regional Developments Ltd (SGX: P15)
Timeframe: Daily (1D)
Date Range: February 2025 – October 2025 (~8 months, ~180 bars)
Last Traded Price: SGD 0.440
Exchange: Singapore Exchange (SGX)
1️⃣ Market Structure & Order Flow Analysis
Trend Structure:
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Swing Lows (SL): 0.330 → 0.360 → 0.370 → 0.390 → 0.415 → 0.435
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Swing Highs (SH): 0.405 → 0.430 → 0.475 → 0.500
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The sequence shows a clear bullish structure from Q2 to Q3 2025, with HHs and HLs up to 0.500.
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Break of Structure (BOS): The breakdown below 0.450 in late September marked a CHoCH (Change of Character) to a short-term downtrend.
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Current Regime: Transitioning from uptrend → range/downtrend. The price is stabilizing between 0.435 and 0.475.
Momentum Analysis:
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Recent bars show smaller ranges and overlapping bodies, confirming momentum decay after the 0.500 peak.
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Bearish pressure is present but with low conviction (volume tapering).
2️⃣ Advanced Volume-Price Relationship (VPR)
Volume Signature:
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High volume + small range (absorption) seen at 0.435–0.440 = likely institutional support area.
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Climactic volume during the run-up to 0.500 (August–September) — potential distribution by institutions.
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Volume divergence: As prices fell from 0.500 → 0.440, volume decreased, suggesting no panic selling, more of a controlled markdown.
Interpretation:
Institutions likely offloaded near 0.500 and are absorbing around 0.435–0.440 for potential reaccumulation.
3️⃣ Institutional Footprints & Smart Money Concepts
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Liquidity Grab: The wicks near 0.475 represent stop-clearing before downside continuation.
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Order Block: Last bullish candle around 0.440–0.445 before push to 0.500 → potential bearish order block on retest.
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Fair Value Gap (FVG): Exists between 0.460–0.475; likely to be retested before further decline.
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Displacement: Noticeable downward displacement from 0.475 → 0.440 on increasing effort = bearish control temporarily.
4️⃣ Bar Pattern Recognition
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No major engulfing patterns currently, but multiple small-bodied bars with long wicks indicate indecision.
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Inside bars forming between 0.435–0.450 = compression phase, potential volatility expansion incoming.
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Pin Bar Support Rejection: Small pin near 0.435 shows defensive buying interest.
5️⃣ Multi-Timeframe Confluence
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Weekly timeframe: Still bullish above 0.420; medium-term structure intact.
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Daily timeframe: Short-term neutral-to-bearish bias within range (0.435–0.475).
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Confluence suggests pullback phase within broader accumulation range.
6️⃣ Psychological & Key Levels
| Level | Type | Observation |
|---|---|---|
| 0.500 | Psychological resistance | Heavy supply / profit-taking zone |
| 0.475 | FVG / previous swing high | Potential retest target |
| 0.450 | Mid-range resistance | Minor rejection area |
| 0.435 | Support | Institutional absorption |
| 0.420 | Structural support | Invalidates short-term bullish setup below this level |
7️⃣ Risk-Adjusted Zone Mapping
High-Probability Buy Zone: 0.430–0.440 (support cluster + absorption zone)
Invalidation (Stop): Below 0.420 (break of range support)
Profit Targets: 0.460 → 0.475 → 0.500
Risk–Reward: Approx. 1:3 (if entry 0.440, stop 0.420, target 0.500)
8️⃣ Market Regime Classification
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Current Regime: Transitional, post-uptrend correction with absorption signs.
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Volume Pattern: Mixed — neither pure accumulation nor full distribution.
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Bias: Range-bound accumulation forming at 0.430–0.450, awaiting catalyst or breakout trigger.
9️⃣ Institutional Supply/Demand Context
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Demand Zone: 0.430–0.440 with effort vs. result absorption.
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Supply Zone: 0.475–0.500 (previous institutional exit zone).
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Expect range play until one side is decisively taken.
📊 Summary Bias & Execution Framework
Bias: Neutral-to-bullish (accumulation base forming)
Setup: Long re-entry at 0.435–0.440 support zone
Stops: Below 0.420
Targets: 0.460 → 0.475 → 0.500
Risk–Reward: 1:3
Confidence Rating: 7/10
Key Levels to Watch: 0.420 (structural invalidation), 0.475 (resistance re-test), 0.500 (major breakout point)
💼 Trade Summary
Buying P15 because of institutional absorption and compression within accumulation zone (0.435–0.440), with stops at 0.420, targeting 0.475–0.500 for a 1:3 R:R setup.
Confidence: 7/10
Checklist Before Execution:
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✅ Confirm volume expansion on breakout above 0.450
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✅ Monitor SGX filings/news for upcoming catalysts
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✅ Validate higher timeframe alignment (weekly structure still bullish)
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✅ Keep risk ≤1% of portfolio capital per position
Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.
Dividend: 16.14%
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