Multi-Chem - 22 Oct 2025

• Stock Name & Code: Multi-Chem Limited (SGX: AWZ)

• Timeframe: Daily (1D)

• Date Range: Feb 2025 – Oct 2025

• Bars in Analysis: ~180 trading sessions

• Last Traded Price: SGD 3.43

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1. Market Structure & Order Flow Analysis

• Trend Structure:

  • Early-year rally peaked at 3.31, followed by retracement to 2.71 (Apr) — clear swing low (SL) formation.

  • Subsequent advance formed higher highs: 3.22 → 3.40 → 3.58 — defining an uptrend structure.

  • Recent pullback from 3.58 → 3.40 → 3.15 zone shows momentum decay with overlapping bars and reduced range.

• BOS / CHoCH Identification:

  • Break of structure (BOS) at 3.40 (June-July) confirmed trend continuation.

  • Current change of character (CHoCH) forming as price failed to hold 3.40 support and closed below — potential transition to range.

• Momentum Decay:

  • Noticeably shorter bars post-September peak.

  • Reduced conviction; potential distribution phase emerging.

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2. Advanced Volume-Price Relationship (VPR)

• Volume Signature:

  • High volume + small range (absorption) at 3.40 and 3.58 → institutional activity near highs.

  • Climactic volume near April low (2.71) and June low (2.55) → capitulation by weak hands.

  • Volume divergence: price retested 3.58 with lower volume → weakening demand.

• Key Observations:

  • Volume contraction around 3.40 indicates balance zone.

  • Watch for volume expansion above 3.58 for confirmation of next impulsive leg.

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3. Institutional Footprint Recognition

• Liquidity Grab:

  • June candle spiked below 2.55 before sharp reversal → classic spring (Wyckoff accumulation signature).

  • Recent rejection near 3.40 may be an upthrust after distribution (UTAD) — false breakout trapping late buyers.

• Order Blocks & FVGs:

  • Bullish order block near 3.05–3.15 — price defended multiple times (July, Aug).

  • FVG exists between 3.25–3.36, likely to act as magnet if price compresses downward.

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4. Bar Pattern Recognition

• Reversal Bars:

  • Several upper-wick rejection bars near 3.58 — consistent supply absorption.

  • Recent small-bodied candles with tails near 3.40 → indecision zone.

• Continuation Patterns:

  • Possible ascending channel (May–Sept) breaking down into a range.

  • Compression near 3.40–3.43 may precede next directional expansion.

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5. Multi-Timeframe Confluence

• Higher Timeframe Bias (Weekly): still uptrend but showing distribution structure.

• Daily (Current): range-bound between 3.15 support and 3.58 resistance.

• Alignment suggests neutral-to-bearish short-term, bullish long-term if 3.15 holds.

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6. Psychological Levels

• Round number: 3.50 acts as short-term sentiment barrier.

• Support levels: 3.15 → 3.05 → 2.71.

• Resistance levels: 3.40 → 3.58 → 3.75.

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7. Risk-Adjusted Setup Identification

• High-Probability Zone:

  • Buy zone: 3.10–3.20 (if retested with low volume).

  • Sell zone: 3.50–3.58 (distribution area).

• Stop placement: below 3.05 (confirmed SL).

• Target: 3.58 / 3.75 (upper distribution zone).

• Risk–Reward: ~1:2.5 depending on entry.

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8. Market Regime Classification

• Current Regime: Transition → Range-Bound

  • Volatility contraction and sideways movement indicate smart money rebalancing positions.

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9. Institutional Supply/Demand Imbalance

• Demand zone: 3.05–3.20 (accumulation base).

• Supply zone: 3.50–3.60 (distribution pressure).

• Effort vs. Result: higher volume, minimal upward progress → absorption at top.

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10. Comprehensive Context

• SGX mid-cap stocks showing sectoral rotation into defensive holdings; Multi-Chem’s IT-related business may lag cyclicals.

• No major correlation with broad SGX indices recently → stock-specific play.

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11. Catalyst Review (Last 90 Days)

• No visible earnings spike or high-volume news bar.

• Price action remains technically driven, not catalyst-driven.

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12. Forward-Looking Bias

• Watch 3.40–3.43 as a pivot zone.

• A daily close below 3.40 signals deeper retracement toward 3.15.

• A strong breakout above 3.58 with >2× average volume confirms trend continuation.

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Summary Statement

Selling AWZ (Multi-Chem Limited) because of distribution structure emerging below 3.58 resistance with weakening volume and momentum, placing stops at 3.60, targeting 3.15 for a risk–reward ratio of 1:2.2.

Confidence Level: 7.5/10
Key Levels to Watch: 3.15 (support), 3.40 (pivot), 3.58 (resistance)
Checklist Before Execution:
☑ Confirm daily close below 3.40
☑ Check volume expansion on breakdown
☑ Reassess higher timeframe bias alignment

Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

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