Stock: Bukit Sembawang Estates Limited (SGX: B61)
Timeframe: Daily (1D)
Date Range: February 2025 – October 2025 (~180 bars)
Last Traded Price: SGD 4.16
Analysis Type: Institutional-grade, pure price–volume methodology
1. Market Structure & Order Flow Analysis
Trend Structure:
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Primary Structure: Uptrend from March low (3.19) → July high (4.47).
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Recent Structure: Sideways/ranging between 4.00 – 4.47 since August.
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Swing Points:
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HL sequence: 3.19 → 3.86 → 4.00 → 4.15
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HH sequence: 4.04 → 4.26 → 4.30 → 4.47
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Current Market Regime: Transitioning from trending to range-bound.
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BOS / CHoCH: Minor CHoCH noted after failing to break 4.47 in August, shifting from bullish momentum to distribution phase.
Momentum Observation:
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Bar overlap increasing post-August.
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Range compression and equal highs near 4.30–4.47 → loss of upward thrust.
2. Volume–Price Relationship (VPR)
Volume Signature:
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June–July: Strong volume on wide bars = institutional markup.
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August–October: Mixed, with spikes on down bars → possible distribution.
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Current Volume: Declining — suggests no aggressive buyers defending 4.00–4.20 zone.
Interpretation:
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Absorption near 4.00: High volume with limited downside progress → potential demand defense.
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Exhaustion at 4.47: Wide range up-bar followed by selling pressure confirms buying climax (BC).
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Volume Divergence: Lower highs in volume as price retested 4.30–4.47 → momentum decay.
3. Institutional Footprints
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Liquidity Grab: July spike above 4.40 trapped late buyers → sharp reversal → smart money distribution.
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Order Blocks: 4.00–4.10 bullish OB formed (last down-bar before rally); now re-tested several times.
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Fair Value Gap (FVG): 3.85–3.95 gap from early June → likely future magnet.
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Displacement: Strong bullish displacement leg May–June → currently being balanced by range rotation.
4. Bar Pattern Recognition
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Reversal Bars:
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Multiple long upper-wick rejections near 4.45 → supply zone confirmation.
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Supportive long-tail candles near 4.00 → demand still active.
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Continuation Bars:
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Inside bar compression between 4.10–4.30 → volatility contraction phase.
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Indecision Bars:
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Repeated spinning tops → neutral order flow awaiting breakout catalyst.
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5. Multi-Timeframe Confluence
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Weekly Bias: Still higher highs and higher lows → macro bullish.
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Daily Bias: Neutral–range with equal highs (4.47) and equal lows (4.00).
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High-probability Zone: 4.00–4.10 accumulation area aligned across daily & weekly.
6. Psychological & Structural Levels
| Key Level | Type | Observation |
|---|---|---|
| 4.47 | Range High / Supply | Selling tails, failed break |
| 4.30 | Mid-range pivot | Prior support turned resistance |
| 4.00 | Demand floor | Strong defense, multi-touch |
| 3.85 | FVG target | Potential liquidity pool |
7. Risk-Adjusted Setup Identification
Potential Setup:
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Scenario A – Bullish Reclaim: If price closes > 4.26 with expanding volume, breakout confirmation toward 4.47/4.55.
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Scenario B – Breakdown: Close < 4.00 with high volume → distribution completion → target 3.85 then 3.65.
Risk Zones:
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Stop-loss placement: Just below 3.95 for long bias; above 4.30 for shorts.
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Ideal RR: Minimum 1:3 (4.00→4.47 or 4.26→3.85).
8. Market Regime Classification
Current Regime: Ranging Transition
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Evidence: Equal highs/lows, declining volume, alternating wide/narrow bars.
9. Institutional Supply/Demand Dynamics
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Supply Dominance: Above 4.30 – absorptive sell volume.
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Demand Presence: 4.00 zone – absorption with decreasing downward extension.
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Effort vs Result: High effort on down-bars but limited downside progress → still some institutional demand.
10. Comprehensive Market Context
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Sector: Singapore property developers under consolidation amid rate-stabilization phase.
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Relative Strength: Neutral vs. STI index; lacks leadership.
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Volatility Regime: ATR compression since August → coiled setup likely to resolve soon.
🎯 Summary Outlook
Market Bias: Neutral-to-slightly-bullish within range.
Key Focus: Watch for breakout confirmation either above 4.26 (buy pressure) or below 4.00 (distribution).
Current Institutional Behavior: Range absorption and inventory re-accumulation; no aggressive distribution yet.
🧭 Trade Summary
[Buying] Bukit Sembawang (SGX:B61) because price is consolidating above key demand at 4.00 with absorption signs and low-volume pullbacks, with stops at 3.95, targeting 4.47 for a 1:3 risk–reward setup.
Confidence: 7 / 10
Key Levels to Watch: 4.00 (support), 4.26 (breakout trigger), 4.47 (resistance).
Execution Checklist Before Action:
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✅ Confirm daily close > 4.26 with volume > 20-day average
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✅ Validate no news catalyst distorting price action
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✅ Confirm ATR expansion signaling breakout strength
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✅ Maintain disciplined stop below 3.95
Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.
Dividend: 0.96%
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