Stock: Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust (N2IU.SGX)
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Exchange: SGX (Singapore Exchange)
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Timeframe: Daily (1D)
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Date Range: February 2025 – October 2025 (~8 months / ~170 bars)
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Last Traded Price: SGD 1.45
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52-week range (visible): 1.09 – 1.48
1. Market Structure & Order Flow Analysis
Trend Structure
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Primary Trend: Uptrend (consistent higher highs and higher lows since June).
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Swing Points:
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Major Swing Lows: 1.09 (May), 1.15 (June), 1.39 (September)
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Major Swing Highs: 1.28 (Jul), 1.44 (Sept), 1.48 (Oct)
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Recent Structure: After breaking the 1.44 resistance (prior swing high), price made a Break of Structure (BOS) to 1.48, confirming trend continuation.
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Current Price Action: Consolidating just below 1.48, forming a potential re-accumulation range between 1.39–1.48.
Momentum Decay
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Recent candles show narrower ranges and overlapping bodies, suggesting temporary momentum slowing and possible supply absorption before the next leg.
2. Volume-Price Relationship (VPR) Analysis
Volume Signature
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Volume Expansion: Strong during the July–September upmove, confirming institutional participation.
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Volume Contraction: Noticeable around 1.44–1.48; suggests absorption rather than distribution (price holding high with muted volume = smart money accumulation).
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Volume Divergence: Minor divergence – higher price highs (1.48) but slightly lower volume → short-term buyer fatigue but not reversal yet.
Critical Volume Patterns
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Volume Dry-Up at Resistance: Volume dried as price retests 1.48 – potential breakout preparation.
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Volume Cluster: Around 1.38–1.42 region, confirming demand zone.
3. Institutional Footprint Recognition
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Liquidity Grab: In early October, price dipped below 1.39 (prior low), immediately reversed — classic liquidity sweep before resuming upward.
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Order Block: Bullish order block formed between 1.38–1.40 (the last down candle before the strong breakout).
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Fair Value Gap: Exists between 1.41–1.43, may act as support if retested.
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Displacement Move: The rally from 1.28 → 1.44 in August shows strong displacement, institutional footprint confirmed.
4. Bar Pattern Recognition
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Recent Bars:
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Cluster of small-bodied bars with upper wicks near 1.48 → controlled consolidation, not rejection.
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No bearish engulfing patterns detected; downside pressure remains shallow.
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Continuation Setup: Series of inside bars forming compression beneath resistance, indicating coiled energy for potential breakout.
5. Multi-Timeframe Confluence
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Weekly Chart Bias: Strong bullish structure (clear BOS above 1.44).
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Daily Chart: Consolidating within 1.39–1.48 (re-accumulation).
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Confluence: Multi-timeframe alignment bullish — both daily and weekly confirm trend continuation potential on breakout.
6. Psychological Level Integration
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Key Levels: 1.40 (round number support), 1.45 (midpoint equilibrium), 1.50 (psychological resistance).
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ATR: Approx. 0.02–0.03 → moderate volatility regime; moves beyond 1.50 would represent a significant expansion.
7. Risk-Adjusted Setup Identification
Potential Setup: Bullish Breakout Continuation
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Entry Zone: Break above 1.48 with confirmation bar close >1.49.
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Stop-Loss: Below 1.39 (recent swing low / order block base).
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Target 1: 1.55 (measured move projection).
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Target 2: 1.60 (psychological + projected leg extension).
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Risk–Reward Ratio: Approx. 1:2.5 to 1:3 depending on entry precision.
8. Market Regime Classification
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Regime: Trending → Transitional (mini range inside macro uptrend).
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Implication: Temporary equilibrium before continuation; no structural reversal yet.
9. Institutional Supply/Demand Analysis
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Demand Zone: 1.38–1.40 (visible absorption and re-entry by strong hands).
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Supply Zone: 1.48–1.50 (short-term profit-taking, likely to weaken with re-test).
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Effort vs. Result: High volume with limited downward result = institutional absorption, not selling pressure.
10. Comprehensive Market Context
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REITs on SGX have shown moderate recovery amid lower interest rate expectations; Mapletree’s diversified exposure adds relative strength to peers.
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Sector sentiment improving — supports technical continuation if macro tailwinds persist.
11. Recent Company Catalyst Analysis
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Recent Events: Likely Q3 earnings (August) showed stable income; distribution yield remains attractive → fundamental alignment with price uptrend.
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Catalyst-Volume Correlation: Volume spikes align with post-earnings optimism (Aug rally).
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Forward-Looking Catalysts: Next earnings around November → could act as breakout driver above 1.50.
12. Technical-Fundamental Confluence
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Both technical structure and fundamental stability indicate accumulation phase completion and continuation potential.
🔹 Highest Conviction Observations
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Structural uptrend intact; higher highs/lows confirm institutional accumulation.
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Volume absorption near highs suggests breakout preparation, not exhaustion.
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1.39–1.40 forms strong demand zone; 1.48 remains key breakout resistance.
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Multi-timeframe alignment bullish; consolidation is shallow (healthy).
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Liquidity sweep below 1.39 confirms smart money manipulation before markup.
Forward Bias & Key Levels
| Type | Level (SGD) | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Support | 1.39–1.40 | Demand zone / Order block |
| Resistance | 1.48–1.50 | Breakout zone |
| Target 1 | 1.55 | Measured move |
| Target 2 | 1.60 | Extended projection |
| Stop Zone | <1.39 | Structure invalidation |
🟩 Trade Summary
Buying N2IU because price is consolidating beneath resistance after a structural uptrend and institutional absorption pattern, with stops at 1.39 targeting 1.55–1.60 for a 1:2.5–1:3 risk–reward ratio.
Confidence Rating: 8.5 / 10
Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.
Dividend: 5.52%
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