Stock: Riverstone Holdings Limited (AP4.SI)
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Exchange: SGX
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Timeframe: Daily
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Date Range: February 2025 – October 2025 (~8 months, ~170 trading bars)
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Last Traded Price: 0.850 SGD
1. Market Structure & Order Flow Analysis
Trend Structure Identification
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Long-term structure: Downtrend from Feb–Jun (1.07 → 0.635).
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Mid-term: Base formation between Jun–Sep (0.635–0.795) — sideways accumulation.
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Short-term: Break of structure (BOS) above 0.795 (Oct), marking a potential bullish transition.
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Current phase: Transitioning from accumulation to early uptrend.
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Key swing points:
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SH: 1.07, 0.945, 0.940, 0.795
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SL: 0.635, 0.675, 0.705
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BOS (bullish): 0.795 broken with strong momentum and volume expansion.
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Recent bars show reduced range and slight overlap, implying momentum pause/consolidation post breakout.
Institutional vs Retail Behavior
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The May–Jun collapse (0.94 → 0.635) occurred on surging volume, indicative of institutional distribution.
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The July–Oct recovery shows consistent volume absorption — strong hands re-accumulating below 0.75.
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Breakout candle (above 0.795) had volume spike, confirming institutional participation.
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Current price (0.850) rests near short-term supply (0.875–0.895).
2. Advanced Volume-Price Relationship (VPR)
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Volume Expansion + Wide Range (Breakout at 0.795): Indicates professional buying impulse.
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Subsequent Narrow Ranges + Moderate Volume: Absorption/pausing phase before potential continuation.
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Volume Divergence: None visible yet — healthy consolidation with stable participation.
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Key Observation: The largest volume bar aligns with a strong bullish day, not a reversal — confirmation of accumulation strength.
3. Institutional Footprint Recognition
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Liquidity Grab: The 0.705 low in early October was a spring pattern — flushed weak holders before reversal.
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Order Block Zone: 0.705–0.750 identified as institutional demand block.
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Fair Value Gap (FVG): Exists between 0.795–0.825, potential retracement test zone if short-term correction occurs.
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Displacement Move: From 0.705 to 0.850, clean directional move — institutional momentum confirmed.
4. Bar Pattern Recognition
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Breakout Bar (mid-Oct): Wide-range bullish candle with strong close and high volume — trend initiation bar.
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Subsequent bars: Two small-bodied candles near highs — potential bull flag forming.
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No bearish engulfing or exhaustion bars yet, suggesting buyers still in control.
5. Multi-Timeframe Confluence
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Weekly timeframe bias: Still bearish-to-neutral, but showing early base breakout.
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Daily timeframe bias: Bullish reversal.
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Confluence: Daily and 4H structures both turning bullish — timeframe compression signaling possible sustained rally.
6. Psychological Level Integration
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Current price near 0.850, a minor psychological round number.
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Next major resistance: 0.875–0.895, followed by 0.945 zone.
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Nearest support: 0.795 (breakout retest) and 0.750 (secondary support).
7. Risk-Adjusted Setup Identification
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Setup Type: Breakout-Continuation after Accumulation.
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Entry Zone: 0.835–0.845 (pullback entry near FVG).
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Stop: Below 0.795 structural breakout (tight institutional protection zone).
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Target 1: 0.945 (prior swing high).
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Target 2: 1.07 (major resistance).
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Risk-Reward: ~1:2.5 if entry near 0.835 with stop 0.790 and target 0.945.
8. Market Regime Classification
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Regime: Transitioning to Trending (early bullish phase).
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Characteristics: Higher highs/lows forming, volume rising on upswings, compressing on pullbacks.
9. Institutional Supply/Demand Analysis
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Demand Zones: 0.705–0.750 (accumulation base), 0.795–0.825 (breakout demand).
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Supply Zones: 0.875–0.895 (first profit-taking cluster).
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Effort vs Result: High effort (volume) yielding strong upward result — accumulation confirmed.
10. Comprehensive Market Context
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Likely sector rotation toward defensive/manufacturing stocks amid SGX mid-cap rebound.
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Stock outperforming peers in the short term after extended base formation.
Forward Bias Summary
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Bias: Bullish continuation (pending 0.795 hold).
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Structure: Higher low → BOS → consolidation = early trend cycle stage.
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Next Objectives: 0.875, 0.945, 1.07.
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Invalidation: Break below 0.795 (would negate breakout structure).
Trade Summary
Buying Riverstone Holdings (SGX: AP4) because price broke above 0.795 structural resistance with institutional volume confirmation and early bullish transition with stops at 0.795, targeting 0.945 for a 1:2.5 risk–reward ratio.
Confidence Rating: 8/10
Key Levels to Watch:
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Support: 0.795, 0.750
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Resistance: 0.875, 0.945, 1.07
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Volume Watchpoint: Breakout continuation requires >2× average daily volume
Execution Checklist
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Confirm price holds above 0.795 on daily close
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Enter on low-volume retracement into 0.835 zone
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Validate volume expansion on breakout attempt above 0.875
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Monitor reaction at 0.945 for profit-taking signals
Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.
Dividend: 6.71%
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