Stock: Keppel DC REIT (AJBU.SI)
Exchange: Singapore Exchange (SGX)
Timeframe: Daily (1D)
Date Range: February 2025 – October 2025
Number of bars analyzed: ~180 trading sessions
Last Traded Price: 2.37 SGD
Recent High: 2.44 SGD
Recent Low: 1.83 SGD
1. Market Structure & Order Flow Analysis
Trend Structure Identification:
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Current structure: Gradual uptrend since April 2025 low (1.83 → 2.44).
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Swing Lows (SL): 1.83 → 2.01 → 2.10 → 2.16 → 2.27 → 2.29 → 2.37
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Swing Highs (SH): 2.25 → 2.34 → 2.39 → 2.43 → 2.44
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Clear Break of Structure (BOS) above 2.34 in mid-August → confirmed uptrend continuation.
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Change of Character (CHoCH) detected in early July (higher low formation at 2.16 → demand absorption).
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Momentum slightly decelerating: smaller candle bodies and overlapping bars around 2.35–2.44 zone — potential distribution or absorption region.
Order Flow Summary:
Institutional demand remains active; however, the top-end structure (2.40–2.44) shows reduced range expansion → possible absorption or latent distribution.
2. Advanced Volume–Price Relationship (VPR) Analysis
Volume Signatures:
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High volume + small range (absorption) observed near 2.34 (mid-July) and 2.43 (late September) — institutions possibly capping price.
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Volume spike with limited progress on 2.43 breakout attempt = professional supply absorption.
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Volume dry-up during sideways consolidation (2.30–2.37) suggests re-accumulation.
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Declining volume into highs = volume divergence, indicating slowing buying pressure.
Interpretation:
Institutional participants are accumulating below 2.40 while capping momentum near 2.43–2.44 — typical of pre-breakout re-accumulation or stealth distribution depending on next impulse direction.
3. Institutional Footprint Recognition
Smart Money Concepts:
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Liquidity Grabs: Two clear stop runs — one below 2.10 (June) and one above 2.43 (September). Both reversed quickly = liquidity collection.
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Order Blocks: Key bullish OB at 2.27–2.29 (August) → strong reaction base.
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Fair Value Gaps (FVG): Small FVGs remain between 2.22–2.25 and 2.32–2.34 → potential revisit zones.
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Displacement Move: The move from 2.10 → 2.39 (June–July) shows strong institutional displacement — clear momentum leg.
Accumulation/Distribution Phases:
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April–June: Accumulation phase (1.83–2.16 range).
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July–August: Markup phase (2.16–2.39 breakout).
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September–October: Potential re-accumulation just below prior highs (2.35–2.44).
4. Bar Pattern Recognition
Reversal Bars:
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Hammer at 1.83 (April) initiated long-term structural low.
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Bearish rejection wicks at 2.43 (September) show exhaustion supply.
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No current strong bearish engulfing signals; micro-dip buying pressure remains evident.
Continuation Patterns:
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Compact inside bars (2.35–2.39) forming coiling compression near resistance.
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Minor flag structure visible (pullback 2.43 → 2.29 = 50% retrace of impulse leg).
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Measured move projection → potential breakout target ≈ 2.57–2.60 zone.
Indecision Bars:
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Several dojis at 2.36–2.38 (low volume) = absorption near resistance, typical before range expansion.
5. Multi-Timeframe Confluence Analysis
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Weekly Chart Context: Uptrend confirmed; strong recovery structure from multi-month base (1.80s).
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Daily = Consolidation within uptrend (trend pause before possible continuation).
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4H Timeframe: Showing compression triangle nearing apex (~2.37 midpoint).
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Confluence bias: Bullish continuation if 2.44 breaks on volume expansion.
6. Psychological Level Integration
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Round Number: 2.40 acts as psychological magnet; multiple tests with shallow pullbacks.
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Monthly High: 2.44 → breakout trigger zone.
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ATR (Daily): ~0.04 — thus breakout move above 2.44 with +0.05 extension = confirmation (>2.49).
7. Risk-Adjusted Setup Identification
High-Probability Zone Mapping:
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Demand Zone (Buy Region): 2.27–2.30 (structural support + order block).
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Breakout Zone: 2.44 (previous high).
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Profit Target 1: 2.57 (measured move).
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Profit Target 2: 2.60 (extension resistance).
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Stop-Loss Zone: Below 2.27 (invalidates structure).
R/R Calculation:
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Entry: 2.37–2.39
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Stop: 2.26
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Target: 2.57
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Risk–Reward Ratio: ~1:3.0
8. Market Regime Classification
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Regime: Transitional → trending-to-range compression.
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Trend Strength: Moderate (higher highs still intact).
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Volatility: Decreasing; low volatility compression near highs = energy build-up.
9. Institutional Supply/Demand Analysis
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Demand Zone: 2.27–2.29 (defended repeatedly with long lower wicks).
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Supply Zone: 2.43–2.44 (strong reactive selling volume).
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Effort vs. Result: High volume with limited upward progress → absorption, not exhaustion yet.
10. Comprehensive Market Context
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Sector: Data Centre REITs — relative strength improving with stable yield sectors in defensive rotation.
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Correlation: Moves in tandem with SGX REIT Index (~moderate correlation).
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Cyclical Factor: REITs often strengthen in lower rate expectations environments — supportive macro context.
🔍 Summary of Key Observations
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Market structure remains bullish with higher highs/lows intact.
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Price consolidating near resistance (2.40–2.44) with low volatility = potential breakout coil.
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Volume absorption evident → institutional accumulation signs.
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Support base well-established at 2.27–2.30.
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Risk-reward still favorable for breakout continuation if volume confirms.
📊 Trade Summary (Hypothetical Framework)
Bias: Buying AJBU (Keppel DC REIT) because price is compressing under resistance (2.44) with evidence of institutional absorption and re-accumulation, suggesting a potential breakout continuation.
Stops: Below 2.27
Target: 2.57
Risk–Reward Ratio: ≈ 1:3.0
Confidence Rating: 8/10
Key Levels to Watch:
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Breakout trigger: 2.44
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Support: 2.27–2.29
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Target: 2.57–2.60
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Invalidity: Close below 2.26
Execution Checklist Before Entry:
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Confirm breakout candle closes >2.44 with above-average volume
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Ensure ATR expansion confirms volatility breakout
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Avoid entering within tight consolidation candles
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Set hard stop below 2.27
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Monitor for false breakout wicks above 2.44
Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.
Dividend: 3.97%
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