Stock: Karin Technology Holdings Limited (K29.SI)
Exchange: SGX
Timeframe: Daily (approx. Apr 2024 – Oct 2025)
Bars in analysis: ~240 trading sessions
Last traded price: 0.280 SGD
1️⃣ Market Structure & Order Flow Analysis
🔸 Trend Structure
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Swing Highs (SH): 0.360 (Jul ’24), 0.335 (Sep ’24), 0.295 (Sep ’25)
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Swing Lows (SL): 0.295 (May ’24), 0.290 (Nov ’24), 0.250 (May ’25)
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Market Structure: Ranging with mild downward bias.
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The break of structure (BOS) below 0.290 in early 2025 initiated a weak bearish phase.
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Change of Character (CHoCH) visible in Jul ’25 as price failed to make new lows and rebounded on increasing volume.
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🔸 Trend Momentum Decay
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Repeated overlapping candles between 0.260–0.295 with contracting range → momentum exhaustion.
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Current phase exhibits structure compression, signaling potential accumulation.
2️⃣ Volume–Price Relationship (VPR)
🔸 Volume Signature
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High-volume wide-range down bars (Apr–May ’25): distribution climax likely.
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High-volume small-range bars (Sep–Oct ’25): absorption — large players absorbing supply.
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Volume divergence: price stable while volume increases — early accumulation footprint.
🔸 Volume Clusters
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Support absorption zone: 0.250–0.260
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Resistance supply zone: 0.295–0.305
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Repeated volume spikes near 0.250 indicate institutional interest at lows.
3️⃣ Institutional Footprint Recognition
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Liquidity Grab: The May ’25 dip to 0.250 swept prior lows → classic spring setup.
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Order Block: Bullish OB around 0.250–0.260 before September’s rally.
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Displacement Move: Late Sept – early Oct ’25 upthrust showed institutional buying followed by controlled pullback.
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Fair Value Gap (FVG): Small unfilled gap around 0.270–0.280 may serve as retest zone for long entries.
4️⃣ Bar Pattern Recognition
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Multiple inside bars in Sept–Oct → energy compression.
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Engulfing bar early Oct with elevated volume → potential continuation trigger.
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Wick rejections near 0.295 mark clear short-term supply pressure.
5️⃣ Multi-Timeframe Confluence
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Weekly structure: Wide range 0.25–0.36 since mid-2024 (broad accumulation range).
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Daily compression within that weekly range suggests price nearing decision point — breakout expected within 2–3 weeks.
6️⃣ Psychological Level Integration
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0.25 = major psychological support (quarter-dollar level).
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0.30 = round-number resistance; also aligns with prior swing highs.
7️⃣ Risk-Adjusted Setup Identification
Bullish Scenario (Accumulation confirmation):
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Entry Zone: 0.270–0.280 retest area
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Stop: below 0.250 (spring low)
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Targets:
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TP1 = 0.295
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TP2 = 0.335 (range midpoint)
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TP3 = 0.360 (range top)
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R:R ≈ 1:3.5 potential
Bearish Scenario (Failure retest):
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Breakdown <0.250 → targets 0.230–0.220 (structural extension)
8️⃣ Market Regime Classification
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Current Regime: Ranging → Transitioning to accumulation.
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Increasing volume + flat price = early smart money positioning.
9️⃣ Institutional Supply/Demand Summary
| Zone | Type | Price Range | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.250–0.260 | Demand | Absorption & Spring | |
| 0.295–0.305 | Supply | Historical distribution | |
| 0.335–0.360 | Major Supply | Previous breakout failure |
🧭 Forward Bias Summary
| Bias | Description |
|---|---|
| Short-Term | Range-bound, awaiting breakout |
| Intermediate-Term | Potential accumulation base forming |
| Long-Term | Neutral to slightly bullish if 0.295 is reclaimed |
✅ Key Levels to Watch
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Support: 0.250 / 0.260
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Resistance: 0.295 / 0.305 / 0.335
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Trigger Zone: Breakout above 0.295 with strong volume = confirmation of phase transition.
⚙️ Trade Summary
Buying K29 because of institutional absorption near 0.25 and breakout structure forming above 0.28, with stops at 0.245, targeting 0.335, for a 1:3.5 risk-reward ratio.
Confidence Rating: 7.5 / 10
Market Regime: Accumulation → Transition
Execution Checklist Before Entry:
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Confirm breakout candle close above 0.295 with >2× average volume
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Validate no failed follow-through within 2 sessions
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Monitor SGX sector sentiment and liquidity flow
Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.
Dividend: 5.09%
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