Stock: China Aviation Oil (Singapore) Corporation Ltd (SGX: G92)
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Timeframe: Daily (1D)
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Date Range: Feb 2025 – Oct 2025
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Bars in Analysis: ~180 trading sessions
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Last Traded Price: 1.31 SGD
1. Market Structure & Order Flow Analysis
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Trend Structure:
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Early-year accumulation zone between 0.75 – 0.87 (Feb–Jun).
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Break of Structure (BOS) in July above 0.87, initiating a strong uptrend.
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Higher swing highs/lows formed at 1.09 → 1.18 → 1.42, confirming bullish structure.
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Recent Change of Character (CHoCH) with lower high and sideways drift → early trend exhaustion signs.
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Momentum:
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Momentum decayed post-September with overlapping candles and compressed bar ranges.
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Suggests institutional profit-taking or redistribution phase.
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2. Volume-Price Relationship (VPR)
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Accumulation Volume: Noticeable increase in volume from May–July with steady price rise → strong hands accumulating.
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Climactic Volume: Occurred near 1.40–1.42, followed by failure to make new highs → potential buying climax.
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Current State: Volume contracting while price holds 1.30–1.32 support → possible absorption before secondary move.
3. Institutional Footprint Recognition
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Liquidity Grab:
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Minor stop hunts above 1.40–1.42 before reversal → likely institutional distribution.
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Order Blocks:
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Bullish order block around 1.09–1.12 (base of last strong rally).
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Fair Value Gaps (FVGs):
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Exists between 1.18–1.25 → unmitigated inefficiency zone; may attract retests.
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Current Phase: Redistribution after uptrend, testing prior demand zones.
4. Bar Pattern Recognition
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Reversal Bars:
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Several long-wick rejection candles between 1.40–1.42, showing selling pressure.
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Continuation Bars:
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Tight body candles recently near 1.31–1.34, suggesting coiled compression for breakout.
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Indecision Bars:
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Repeated dojis at support – price equilibrium with decreasing volume.
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5. Multi-Timeframe Confluence
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Weekly Chart Context:
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Long-term uptrend intact unless 1.25 decisively breaks.
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Daily-Weekly Confluence:
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Both highlight 1.30 support as critical – last defense before potential mid-term correction.
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6. Psychological & Structural Levels
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Immediate Support: 1.30
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Intermediate Support: 1.18 (order block zone)
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Resistance: 1.40–1.42 (distribution top)
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Round Numbers: 1.00 (previous breakout base)
7. Risk-Adjusted Setup Identification
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Scenario 1 (Bullish Reaccumulation):
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Price holds 1.30–1.31 with volume dry-up, then breaks 1.35 with volume expansion → potential retest of 1.42.
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Scenario 2 (Distribution Breakdown):
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Breakdown below 1.30, retest fails → targets 1.18–1.20 zone (previous demand area).
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Stop Placement:
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For long positions: below 1.28.
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For short setups: above 1.36 (failed rally).
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Targets:
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Upside: 1.42 (R:R ≈ 1:3)
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Downside: 1.18 (R:R ≈ 1:3)
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8. Market Regime Classification
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Regime: Transitioning from Trending → Ranging
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Evidence:
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Decreasing volatility, narrow bars, volume compression
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Alternating bullish/bearish bars near key structural support
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9. Institutional Supply/Demand Dynamics
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Supply Zone: 1.38–1.42 (heavy distribution & profit-taking area)
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Demand Zone: 1.18–1.25 (accumulation base from July)
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Effort vs. Result: Rising volume without higher prices post-August = absorption/distribution
🎯 Summary Trade Bias
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Market Regime: Transitioning / Sideways-to-Weakening
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Bias: Neutral-to-Bearish unless price reclaims 1.35+ with volume confirmation.
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Key Levels to Watch:
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Support: 1.30, 1.18
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Resistance: 1.35, 1.42
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🧾 Trade Summary
Selling G92 if price closes below 1.30 because distribution pattern with weakening momentum and institutional absorption.
Stops at 1.36, target 1.18, for R:R = 1:3.
Confidence: 7.5 / 10
Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.
Dividend: 2.82%
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