🧭 1. Market Regime Classification
Current Regime: Transitional-to-Ranging Phase following a steep uptrend.
-
The strong August–September rally from ~1.10 → 1.73 marked a displacement leg (institutional buying burst).
-
Since mid-September, the market has entered rotational behavior between 1.55 – 1.70, signaling distribution or consolidation.
-
Candle overlaps, decreasing ranges, and declining volume confirm momentum decay typical of a post-markup equilibrium zone.
🔍 2. Market Structure & Order Flow
-
Swing Lows (SL): 1.06 → 1.11 → 1.35 → 1.55
-
Swing Highs (SH): 1.16 → 1.35 → 1.73 → 1.68
-
Break of Structure (BOS): Occurred when price breached 1.35 with expanding volume in early Sep — institutional intent evident.
-
Change of Character (CHoCH): Emerged after the 1.73 → 1.55 decline — supply entered the market.
-
Micro-structure: Higher-low at 1.55 is holding; failure below it converts regime back to bearish.
💹 3. Volume–Price Relationship (VPR)
-
Rally Volume Expansion: During the 1.10–1.73 move, we saw climactic wide-range bars with peak volume spikes, indicating institutional mark-up.
-
Distribution Signals: Post-1.73, several high-volume small-range bars → absorption (professionals unloading into retail chasers).
-
Volume Dry-Up: Recent candles near 1.62 show contracting ranges and shrinking volume — “no demand” condition; market waiting for initiative move.
🏛️ 4. Institutional Footprints
-
Order Block: 1.48 – 1.55 zone (last down-bar before strong upside displacement) — likely demand zone if retested.
-
Fair Value Gap (FVG): Between 1.47 – 1.55 left untested after breakout — potential magnet if retracement deepens.
-
Liquidity Grab: The 1.73 spike was a stop-run above obvious resistance, followed by sharp rejection → classic upthrust after distribution (UTAD).
🧠 5. Bar Pattern Recognition
-
Engulfing Patterns: Several bearish engulfing bars formed near 1.68 – 1.70; none followed through strongly → suggests absorption.
-
Inside-Bar Cluster: Late Oct consolidation range between 1.60 – 1.65 — coiled energy; breakout likely in coming sessions.
-
Reversal Bars: The 1.55 bar was a long-wick hammer with elevated volume — high-confidence demand confirmation.
🕰️ 6. Multi-Timeframe Context
-
Weekly Chart (inferred): Still in higher-high/higher-low structure; trend bias remains up until 1.55 breaks.
-
Daily Chart: Neutral-to-slightly bullish bias while above 1.55 support.
-
Intraday Context: Sideways chop with no clear directional control — liquidity building before expansion.
💵 7. Psychological & Structural Levels
| Level | Type | Observation |
|---|---|---|
| 1.75 – 1.73 | Prior swing high | Supply zone; likely profit-taking area |
| 1.68 | Lower high cap | Short-term resistance ceiling |
| 1.62 (current) | Equilibrium | Balance area — neutral |
| 1.55 | Swing low / demand | Key structural support |
| 1.48 | FVG boundary | Deep retrace test zone |
| 1.35 | Prior breakout | Structural demand confirmation |
🧩 8. Risk-Adjusted Setup Mapping
-
Bullish Scenario:
-
Long entries favored on re-tests of 1.55 – 1.58 demand with bullish volume confirmation.
-
Targets: 1.68 → 1.73.
-
Stop: below 1.52 (beneath order-block base).
-
Risk-Reward: ~1 : 2.5.
-
-
Bearish Scenario:
-
Breakdown below 1.55 with expanding volume → triggers momentum shift to downside.
-
Downside targets: 1.48 → 1.35 zone.
-
Stop: above 1.63.
-
⚖️ 9. Institutional Supply/Demand Summary
-
Demand Cluster: 1.48 – 1.55
-
Supply Cluster: 1.68 – 1.73
-
Equilibrium (Control Price): ~1.62
→ Market currently rotating inside equilibrium range awaiting liquidity resolution.
🧭 Forward-Looking Bias
-
Until a clear breakout, expect range behavior with mean-reversion trades favored.
-
Watch for volume expansion + decisive close outside 1.55 / 1.68 to define next directional leg.
Trade Summary Sentence
Neutral bias on SGX:S35 — price consolidating between 1.55–1.68 after strong rally; waiting for breakout confirmation.
“Watching S35 for breakout from 1.55–1.68 range; stops to be placed outside structure with targets at 1.73 or 1.48 depending on direction; R:R ≈ 1:2.5.”
Confidence: 6.5 / 10
Key Levels: 1.55 (support), 1.62 (equilibrium), 1.68 (resistance), 1.73 (extension)
Checklist Before Execution:
✅ Confirm breakout volume exceeds 20-day average
✅ Verify close outside range, not intrabar probe
✅ Align trade direction with weekly bias
✅ Use position sizing within risk tolerance
Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.
Dividend: 4.01%
No comments:
Post a Comment