UOB - 29 Aug 29

• Stock: United Overseas Bank Limited (U11.SI)

• Exchange: SGX

• Timeframe: Daily

• Period Covered: ~Dec 2024 – Aug 2025 (~9 months, ~180 bars)

• Last Traded Price: 35.19 SGD

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1. Market Structure & Order Flow

• Trend Structure:

  • Major swing high (SH): 39.20 (Mar 2025) → followed by lower highs at 38.55, 37.36, 36.58.

  • Major swing low (SL): 29.00 (Apr 2025) → higher lows at 34.00 and 34.51.

  • Current structure: Broad sideways range (34.00 – 37.50) after sharp liquidation in Apr 2025.

• Break of Structure (BOS):

  • BOS down in Apr 2025 when price collapsed from 38.55 → 29.00.

  • Recovery since May shows change of character (CHoCH), but capped under 36.50 resistance.

• Momentum Decay:

  • Smaller bar ranges in Jul–Aug suggest order flow absorption near 35.50–36.50.

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2. Volume–Price Relationship (VPR)

• Apr 2025 crash: Very high volume + wide range down → institutional liquidation/panic.

• May 2025 rebound: Strong rally off 29.00 with volume expansion, indicating institutional buy absorption.

• Recent Aug 2025 consolidation:

  • Declining volume + narrow ranges near 35.00–35.50.

  • Volume dry-up = potential preparation for next directional move.

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3. Institutional Footprints

• Liquidity Grab: April low at 29.00 = classic stop hunt under 2023–2024 structural lows, then immediate reversal.

• Order Block: Strong bullish candle (early May) marks demand zone around 34.00–34.50.

• Fair Value Gap (FVG): 34.50–36.00 region shows repeated re-tests = institutional re-accumulation.

• Displacement: Sharp rally from 29.00 → 36.80 without deep retracement confirms institutional flow.

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4. Bar Pattern Recognition

• Reversal Signals:

  • Pin-bar rejection (Apr 2025) at 29.00 with follow-through buying = confirmed bottom.

  • Recent doji/spinning tops at 36.50 = supply absorption.

• Continuation:

  • Current action resembles inside-bar cluster in Aug 2025 = compression before breakout.

• Indecision Bars:

  • Low volume spinning tops at 35.20 = market awaiting new catalyst.

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5. Multi-Timeframe Confluence

• Weekly: Higher low confirmed at 29.00, but failing to reclaim 37.50 resistance.

• Daily: Compression around 34.50–36.00 forming balance area.

• Bias: Neutral-to-bullish as long as 34.00 holds.

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6. Psychological & Key Levels

• Support: 34.00 (structural low), 34.50 (order block).

• Resistance: 36.50–37.50 (multi-tested supply zone), 39.20 (major swing high).

• Psychological: Round number 35.00 acting as short-term pivot.

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7. Risk-Adjusted Setup Zones

• Bullish Setup:

  • Entry: near 34.50–35.00 demand.

  • Stop: below 34.00 structural low.

  • Target: 36.80 → 37.50 (1:2.5–1:3 R:R).

• Bearish Setup:

  • Breakdown below 34.00 on volume expansion.

  • Target: retest 32.00, possibly 29.00.

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8. Market Regime Classification

• Regime: Transition / Sideways Re-Accumulation

  • After April crash, market is in phase B Wyckoff accumulation between 34–37.5.

  • Next breakout (up or down) will set directional bias.

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9. Institutional Supply/Demand Zones

• Demand (Accumulation): 34.00–34.50

• Supply (Distribution): 36.50–37.50

• Imbalance Area: 35.00–36.00 (thin liquidity zone)

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🎯 Trade Summary

Buying UOB (U11.SI) only if price holds above 34.50 demand zone, because absorption and accumulation suggest institutional positioning, with stops below 34.00 targeting 36.80–37.50 for ~1:3 R:R.

• Confidence Rating: 7/10 (neutral-bullish, awaiting catalyst/volume expansion)

• Key Levels to Watch:

  • Support: 34.00 / 34.50

  • Resistance: 36.50 / 37.50 / 39.20

📌 Checklist before execution:

• Wait for volume confirmation on breakout.

• Align trade with broader sector index (STI, bank sector strength).

• Position sizing: risk defined strictly below 34.00.

Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

Dividend:   5.12%