Singtel (Z74.SI) – Daily Chart – Analysis up to 12 Aug 2025
Last traded price: SGD 3.92
Analysis period: ~11 months (Sep 2024 – Aug 2025), ~230 daily bars
1. Market Regime Classification
Current Regime: Transition → Early Signs of Range Formation after a strong trending phase.
-
The uptrend from Dec 2024 low at 3.00 to July 2025 high at 4.20 has lost momentum.
-
Price is consolidating between 3.75 and 4.00, with a recent lower high at 4.00 failing to break the previous swing high.
-
Increased overlap in bars and narrowing ranges suggest momentum decay.
2. Highest Conviction Observations
A. Market Structure & Order Flow
-
Swing Highs/Lows:
-
Key SLs: 3.00 (Dec 2024), 3.04 (Jan 2025), 3.27 (Apr 2025), 3.75 (Jul 2025).
-
Key SHs: 4.00 (May 2025), 4.01 (Jun 2025), 4.20 (Jul 2025).
-
-
Break of Structure: Post 4.20 high, price failed to maintain higher lows, breaking below 3.95 and retesting 3.92 zone.
-
CHoCH: Failure to hold above 4.00 after recent rally hints shift from bullish to neutral.
B. Volume–Price Relationship
-
Absorption Evidence: High volume bars in April and July near swing lows (3.27 and 3.75) with shallow penetration suggest institutional buying interest.
-
Volume Divergence: From 3.76 to 4.20, price made new highs while daily volume trended lower → waning buyer commitment.
-
Climactic Selling: Sharp drop from 4.20 to 3.80 on above-average volume likely represents profit-taking rather than panic selling.
C. Institutional Footprints
-
Liquidity Grab: July high at 4.20 spiked above prior resistance at 4.01, triggering breakout buyers before reversing — classic bull trap.
-
Order Block Zone: 3.85–3.90 shows multiple rejections and volume clustering; acts as short-term demand area.
-
Fair Value Gap: 3.75–3.80 gap from June pullback may be retested if weakness persists.
D. Bar Pattern Recognition
-
Multiple spinning tops & dojis in recent bars at 3.92–3.95 suggest indecision; no strong directional conviction yet.
-
Prior impulse waves had consistent follow-through; latest attempts lack strong continuation bars.
E. Multi-Timeframe Confluence
-
Weekly chart bias (not shown but inferred): Uptrend still intact, but daily is compressing into sideways structure.
-
Monthly support lies at 3.75, aligning with April swing low — strong confluence zone for potential bounce.
3. Psychological Levels
-
Round Numbers: 4.00 acting as a magnet and rejection point.
-
Support/Resistance:
-
Resistance: 4.00, 4.20
-
Support: 3.85–3.90, 3.75
-
4. Risk Management & Forward Scenarios
-
Bullish Scenario: Hold above 3.85 → retest 4.00; breakout on strong volume could aim for 4.10–4.20.
-
Bearish Scenario: Close below 3.85 with volume expansion could target 3.75; breach there opens 3.60 zone.
-
Stops: Below 3.75 for swing longs, above 4.05 for swing shorts.
Trade Summary:
Selling Singtel because of momentum loss post-4.20 high, false breakout trap above 4.01, and current consolidation with lower highs, with stops at 4.05 targeting 3.75 for 1:2 R/R.
Confidence: 6.5/10
Key Levels to Watch: 3.85 (demand), 4.00 (supply), 3.75 (major support).
Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.
Dividend: 2.96%
No comments:
Post a Comment