Straits Trading (S20 · SGX) — Daily Chart — Aug 2024 to Aug 2025
Bars analyzed: ~230
Last traded price: 1.57 SGD
Market Regime Classification
Transition to Early Distribution Phase
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Recent explosive rally to 1.78 (wide range, high volume) followed by sharp pullback.
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Shift from higher highs to first significant lower high attempt at 1.70–1.72 zone.
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Volatility expansion combined with profit-taking pressure visible in recent sessions.
Highest Conviction Observations
1. Macro & Micro Structure
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Macro: Broke long-term resistance at 1.55 in July with strong impulse move.
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Micro: Post-breakout high at 1.78 formed climactic bar → immediate retracement to 1.57 (current structural support test).
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BOS (Break of Structure): Occurred at 1.55 in July, confirming trend shift from multi-month accumulation to markup.
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CHoCH (Change of Character): August high at 1.78 now followed by shallow bounce → signals potential shift toward consolidation/distribution.
2. Institutional vs. Retail Footprints
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Absorption bar near 1.55 in early July → strong hands defending breakout before initiating rally.
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The 1.78 high had ultra-high volume + long upper wick → potential buying climax.
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Current pullback bars show declining volume on downswings → controlled profit-taking, not panic selling yet.
3. Volume–Price Relationship (VPR)
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July rally: Wide range + volume expansion = professional buying.
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Post-1.78 drop: First red bar with extremely high volume → likely institutional distribution.
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Present: Reduced range with moderate volume → market waiting for next liquidity trigger.
4. Key Institutional Levels
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Order Block Support: 1.53–1.55 zone (last bullish candle before breakout).
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Liquidity Grab Potential: Below 1.55 to trigger stops before possible reversal.
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Fair Value Gap: 1.46–1.50 left untested in July’s impulse leg.
5. Psychological & Multi-Timeframe Confluence
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1.60 → near-term psychological pivot; current price sitting under it = short-term bearish bias.
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1.55 → confluence of breakout retest + order block support.
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Weekly timeframe still bullish but daily shows possible topping pattern.
Forward Bias & Key Levels
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Bullish Scenario: Hold above 1.55 → retest 1.60 then attempt 1.70+.
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Bearish Scenario: Break below 1.55 on volume → fast drop toward 1.50, possibly 1.46 FVG fill.
Risk Management
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Stop Zone (Longs): Below 1.53 to avoid liquidity sweep risk.
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Profit Target (Longs): 1.68–1.70 initial zone.
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Risk–Reward Example: Entry 1.56, stop 1.52, target 1.70 = ~1:3 R/R.
Trade Summary: Buying S20 because price is retesting post-breakout institutional support at 1.55 with controlled pullback volume, with stops at 1.52 targeting 1.70 for ~1:3 R/R.
Confidence: 6.5/10
Key Levels to Watch: 1.52–1.55 (support), 1.60 (pivot), 1.68–1.70 (resistance).
Reminder Checklist Before Execution:
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Confirm support hold on lower timeframe with volume increase.
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Watch for liquidity sweep below 1.55 before reversal.
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Avoid chasing if price spikes directly into resistance without pullback.
Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.
Dividend: 5.10%
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