OLAM - 05 Aug 25

OLAM GROUP (VC2.SI) – DAILY CHART TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Exchange: SGX
Date Range: November 2024 – 5 August 2025
Timeframe: Daily
Bars Analyzed: ~180
Last Traded Price: SGD 1.05

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🔍 MARKET REGIME CLASSIFICATION

Current Regime: Transitioning from Accumulation to Early Uptrend

• Structure is shifting from broad range-bound behavior into a potential trend initiation phase

• Multiple signs of institutional accumulation in the 0.80–0.92 zone

• Current price testing previous structure resistance turned support near 1.00

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✅ HIGH-CONVICTION OBSERVATIONS

1. Market Structure & Order Flow (Macro to Micro):

   • Swing Lows (SL): 0.80 → 0.87 → 1.00 (Higher Lows)

   • Swing Highs (SH): 0.99 → 1.10 (Higher Highs)

   • Change of Character (CHoCH): Occurred at break above 0.99 level, confirming bullish intent

   • Trend Status: Early bullish structure forming; signs of momentum initiation with mild pullback in progress

2. Volume-Price Relationship (VPR):

   • Climactic Volume: Sharp spike on the 0.80 low — large red bar followed by quick reversal, sign of selling climax and institutional absorption

   • Volume Dry-Up: Noticeable volume contraction before breakout above 1.00 in July

   • Breakout Volume Expansion: Bullish breakout through 1.00 backed by expanded green volume bars in late July

   • Current Volume: Diminishing during pullback — bullish sign (sellers lack conviction)

3. Institutional Footprint Detection:

   • Order Block Zone: 0.92–1.00 zone served as accumulation block, with multiple tests and strong lift-off

   • Fair Value Gap (FVG): Exists between 0.92–0.99 after large directional move with minimal overlap

   • Displacement Move: Break above 1.00 showed impulsive bullish displacement, shallow retrace = strength

4. Bar Pattern Recognition (Recent Price Action):

   • Engulfing Bull Bar (mid-July): Signaled trend ignition

   • Recent Pullback Bars: Small-bodied candles with long wicks and reduced volume — classic bull flag behavior

   • No bearish reversal signal yet — price consolidating at higher levels

5. Psychological & Key Structural Levels:

   • Support: 1.00 (prior breakout level)

   • Resistance: 1.10–1.14 (next major supply zone)

   • Psychological Round Levels: 1.00 (defended), 1.10 (minor rejection recently), 0.90 (prior base)

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🔎 INSTITUTIONAL ACCUMULATION ANALYSIS (Wyckoff Lens)

• Phase C (Spring): Occurred at 0.80 — sharp shakeout with immediate recovery

• Phase D: Bullish breakout over resistance at 0.99–1.00 with increasing volume

• Current Phase: Potential test of breakout zone; holding above 1.00 would confirm Phase E (Mark-Up)

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⏱ MULTI-TIMEFRAME CONFLUENCE

• Weekly Chart Bias: Forming Higher Low vs. March breakdown — transitioning from accumulation

• Daily Chart Bias: Emerging uptrend with constructive consolidation

• Hourly Chart (not shown): Would likely show micro bull flag / falling wedge

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⚖️ RISK-MANAGED TRADE SCENARIO

• Entry Consideration: On bullish confirmation above 1.06 or strong bounce from 1.00 with volume

• Stop Loss: Below 0.99 (clear invalidation of breakout structure)

• Target 1: 1.14 (prior support turned resistance)

• Target 2: 1.23–1.25 zone (major swing high and gap fill area)

• Risk-to-Reward: ~1:2.5–1:3 depending on entry

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🔭 FORWARD-LOOKING BIAS & KEY LEVELS TO WATCH

• Bullish Bias continues if 1.00 is defended and 1.06–1.10 area is cleared on increasing volume

• Bearish Reversal Scenario only valid if price closes below 0.99 on wide-range, high-volume down bar

• Critical Zones:

  • Support: 1.00 / 0.92

  • Resistance: 1.10 / 1.14 / 1.23

  • Watch for volume reaction at 1.06 and 1.10

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📋 TRADE SUMMARY FORMAT

Buying OLAM GROUP (VC2.SI) because price confirmed breakout above accumulation zone (1.00) with supportive volume structure with stops at 0.99, targeting 1.14 for a 1:3 risk-reward ratio.
Confidence Rating: 8/10
Key Levels to Watch: 0.99 (support), 1.10 (resistance), 1.14 (target zone)
Pre-Trade Checklist:

• Confirm price holds above 1.00 on closing basis

• Entry trigger on bullish engulfing / high-volume break above 1.06

• Validate volume expansion on move through 1.10

Disclaimer:Please note that this analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions.

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